Value of intelligence applied to networks

A methodology is proposed to complement the subjective “value” of intelligence with an objective metric of “impact” of information on network models. This is a deterministic one-way sensitivity analysis similar to value of information used in inference diagrams. It would measure the impact of a piece of information on a network’s metric, in this case being used to answer intelligence analyst questions. This methodology suggests that the sensitivity of each link to existing analysis implies that the link has an impact on the analysis. The impact of these links can be measured quantitatively. In this paper, we explore data of tweets and apply the methodology to the links between twitter users and use the network measure of betweenness centrality to determine their quantitative impact on the overall network.     

Cross-national variation in determinants of climate change concern

ABSTRACT

Our understanding of the determinants of public concern about climate change relies heavily on survey research in the United States. But can those findings be generalized to the rest of the world? Analysis of the Pew Research Center’s 2015 Global Attitudes Survey shows fairly similar patterns in the English-speaking Western democracies and, to a lesser extent, western Europe, but party identification and political ideology matter much less in most of the globe, and demographic factors have very different impacts. Female, younger, and less religious people tend to worry more about climate change in English-speaking Western democracies. In most of the world, however, concern is only weakly correlated with gender, rises with age and religiosity, and is more strongly correlated with education. A new measure of commitment to democratic values proved to be the most consistent predictor of concern globally.     

Multiyear monitoring of survival following mitigation-driven translocation of a long-lived threatened reptile

Translocation is used by managers to mitigate the negative impacts of development on species. Moving individuals to a new location is challenging, and many translocation attempts have failed. Robust, posttranslocation monitoring is therefore important for evaluating effects of translocation on target species. We evaluated the efficacy of a translocation designed to mitigate the effects of a utility-scale solar energy project on the U.S. federally listed Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). The species is a long-lived reptile threatened by a variety of factors, including habitat loss due to renewable energy development in the Mojave Desert and portions of the Colorado Desert in southern California (southwestern United States). We translocated 58 individual tortoises away from the project's construction site and intensively monitored them over 5 years (2012–2017). We monitored these individuals and tortoises located in the translocation release area (resident tortoises; n = 112) and control tortoises (n = 149) in a nearby location. We used our tortoise encounter data and known-fate survival models to estimate annual and cumulative survival. Translocated tortoises in each of 2 size classes (120–160 mm, >160 mm) did not survive at lower rates than resident and control tortoises over the study period. For models with different sets of biotic and abiotic covariates, annual and cumulative estimates of survival were always >0.87 and >0.56, respectively. Larger tortoises tended to have higher survival, but translocated tortoises were not differentially affected by the covariates used to model variation in survival. Based on these findings, our translocation design and study protocols could inform other translocation projects for desert species. Our case study highlights the benefits of combining rigorous scientific monitoring with well-designed, mitigation-driven management actions to reduce the negative effects of development on species of conservation concern.     

Optimal oil tanker size with regard to environmental impact of oil spills

This paper considers optimal tanker size in view of the environmental effects of oil spills. A model is developed that incorporates the tradeoff between small but frequent spills with many tankers, and the relatively less frequent but larger and more concentrated spills with a smaller fleet of larger ships. A procedure is suggested to incorporate the environmental impact of oil spills in the model without quantifying them in monetary units. A closed form solution set for optimal tankers size is obtained and some numerical results are presented.     

The influence of personal protection equipment,occupant body size,and restraint system on the frontal impact responses of Hybrid III ATDs in tactical vehicles

Objective: Although advanced restraint systems, such as seat belt pretensioners and load limiters, can provide improved occupant protection in crashes, such technologies are currently not utilized in military vehicles. The design and use of military vehicles presents unique challenges to occupant safety—including differences in compartment geometry and occupant clothing and gear—that make direct application of optimal civilian restraint systems to military vehicles inappropriate. For military vehicle environments, finite element (FE) modeling can be used to assess various configurations of restraint systems and determine the optimal configuration that minimizes injury risk to the occupant. The models must, however, be validated against physical tests before implementation. The objective of this study was therefore to provide the data necessary for FE model validation by conducting sled tests using anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs). A secondary objective of this test series was to examine the influence of occupant body size (5th percentile female, 50th percentile male, and 95th percentile male), military gear (helmet/vest/tactical assault panels), seat belt type (3-point and 5-point), and advanced seat belt technologies (pretensioner and load limiter) on occupant kinematics and injury risk in frontal crashes.

Methods: In total, 20 frontal sled tests were conducted using a custom sled buck that was reconfigurable to represent both the driver and passenger compartments of a light tactical military vehicle. Tests were performed at a delta-V of 30 mph and a peak acceleration of 25 g. The sled tests used the Hybrid III 5th percentile female, 50th percentile male, and 95th percentile male ATDs outfitted with standard combat boots and advanced combat helmets. In some tests, the ATDs were outfitted with additional military gear, which included an improved outer tactical vest (IOTV), IOTV and squad automatic weapon (SAW) gunner with a tactical assault panel (TAP), or IOTV and rifleman with TAP. ATD kinematics and injury outcomes were determined for each test.

Results: Maximum excursions were generally greater in the 95th percentile male compared to the 50th percentile male ATD and in ATDs wearing TAP compared to ATDs without TAP. Pretensioners and load limiters were effective in decreasing excursions and injury measures, even when the ATD was outfitted in military gear.

Conclusions: ATD injury response and kinematics are influenced by the size of the ATD, military gear, and restraint system. This study has provided important data for validating FE models of military occupants, which can be used for design optimization of military vehicle restraint systems.     

Ammonia emissions from a broiler farm: spatial variability of airborne concentrations in the vicinity and impact on adjacent woodland

Agricultural NH₃ emissions affect air quality and influence the nitrogen cycle. In the subject study, NH₃ emissions from a broiler farm and the resulting atmospheric concentrations in the immediate vicinity during three growing cycles have been quantified. Additionally, vegetation along a transect in an adjacent woodland was analysed. The emissions were as high as 10 kg NH₃ h⁻¹ and the atmospheric concentrations ranged between 33 and 124 μg NH₃ m⁻³ per week in the immediate vicinity. Measurements of the atmospheric concentrations over 7 weeks showed a substantial decline of mean concentrations (based on a 3-week average) from ∼13 to <3 μg NH₃ m⁻³, at 45- and 415-m distance from the farm. Vegetation surveys showed that nitrophilous species flourished when they grew closest to the farm (their occurrence sank proportionately with distance). A clearly visible damage of pine trees was observed within 200 m of the farm; this illustrated the significant impact of NH₃ emissions from agricultural sources on the sensitive ecosystem.