Emissions Trading with Shares and Coupons when Control over Discharges Is Uncertain

Two important decisions in designing markets for tradable emissions permits are whether to allow banking of permits (coupons) and whether to allow trading in entitlements to future permits (shares). Banking is predicted to reduce price instability when firms trade in a reconciliation market after the quantity of emissions has been determined. Tradable shares are a common feature in proposals for emissions trading in Canada. We conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate how bankable coupons and tradable shares affect efficiency and prices under uncertainty. Cognitive demands on the subjects are reduced by computerized advice on the optimal allocation of coupons across periods and the implied marginal values of coupons and shares. Banking, share trading, and uncertainty conditions are introduced in a complete factorial design with three observations per cell. High efficiencies are observed across all treatments. Uncertainty in the control of emissions leads to substantial price instability when banking is not allowed. Banking virtually eliminates the instability, but reduces the efficiency of the market institution. Share trading reduces trading volumes, increases price stability, and improves efficiency.     

Female choice in sage grouse: the roles of attraction and active comparison

Previous studies of female choice in sage grouse Centrocercus urophasianus have implicated both the acoustic quality and repetition rate of the stereotyped strut display as putative cues for female choice. Stages in the choice process at which specific components of male courtship display influence female decisions were investigated using field observations of female pre-mating behavior. Females visited a subset of territorial males and then actively chose one of these as a mate. The order in which males were visited suggested that females searched until an acceptable mate was found, rather than employing a “best-of-n” tactic. Numbers of females visiting a male were related to differences in an acoustical component of display (inter-pop interval) whereas the probability that a visiting female mated was related to display rate (Table 3), indicating that initial attraction and active choice are influenced by different components of display. In addition, inter-pop interval and display rate tended to covary inversely (Fig. 1), suggesting that attraction and active choice may impose conflicting selection pressures on display performance. Received: 11 November 1995/Accepted after revision: 16 March 1996     

Is big the best? Queen size,usurpation and nest closure in a primitively eusocial sweat bee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lasioglossum malachurum</Emphasis>)

For primitively eusocial insects in which a single foundress establishes a nest at the start of the colony cycle, the solitary provisioning phase before first worker emergence represents a risky period when other, nestless foundresses may attempt to usurp the nest. In the primitively eusocial sweat bee Lasioglossum malachurum (Hymenoptera, Halictidae), spring foundresses compete for nests which are dug into hard soil. Nest-searching foundresses (‘floaters’) frequently inspected nests during this solitary phase and thereby exerted a usurpation pressure on resident queens. Usurpation has been hypothesised to increase across the solitary provisioning phase and favour closure of nests at an aggregation, marking the termination of the solitary provisioning phase by foundresses, before worker emergence. However, our experimental and observational data suggest that usurpation pressure may remain constant or even decrease across the solitary provisioning phase and therefore cannot explain nest closure before first worker emergence. Levels of aggression during encounters between residents and floaters were surprisingly low (9% of encounters across 2 years), and the outcome of confrontations was in favour of residents (resident maintains residency in 94% of encounters across 2 years). Residents were significantly larger than floaters. However, the relationship between queen size and offspring production, though positive, was not statistically significant. Size therefore seems to confer a considerable advantage to a queen during the solitary provisioning phase in terms of nest residency, but its importance in terms of worker production appears marginal. Factors other than intraspecific usurpation need to be invoked to explain the break in provisioning activity of a foundress before first worker emergence.     

Shifting foraging strategies in colonies of the social wasp Polybia occidentalis (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

Social insect colonies can be expected to forage at rates that maximize colony fitness. Foraging at higher rates would increase the rate of worker production, but decrease adult survival. This trade-off has particular significance during the founding stage, when adults lost are not replaced. Prior work has shown that independent-founding wasps rear the first workers rapidly by foraging at high rates. Foraging rates decrease after those individuals pupate, presumably reducing the risk of foundress death. In the swarm-founding wasps, colony-founding units have many workers, making colony death by forager attrition less likely. Do swarm-founding wasps show similar shifts in foraging rates during the founding stage? We measured foraging rates of the swarm-founding wasp, Polybia occidentalis at four stages of colony development. At each stage, foraging rates correlated with the number of larvae present, which, in the founding stages, correlated with the number of cells in the new nest. Thus, foraging rates appear to be demand-driven, with the level of demand in the founding stage set by the size of nest that is constructed. During the founding stage, foraging rates per larva were high initially, suggesting that colonies minimize the development times of larvae early in the founding stage. Later in the stage, foraging rates decreased, which would reduce worker mortality until new workers eclose. This pattern is similar to that shown for independent-founding wasps and likely results from conflicting pressures to maximize colony growth and minimize the risk of colony death by forager attrition.     

Lifting a veil on diversity: a Bayesian approach to fitting relative-abundance models.

Bayesian methods incorporate prior knowledge into a statistical analysis. This prior knowledge is usually restricted to assumptions regarding the form of probability distributions of the parameters of interest, leaving their values to be determined mainly through the data. Here we show how a Bayesian approach can be applied to the problem of drawing inference regarding species abundance distributions and comparing diversity indices between sites. The classic log series and the lognormal models of relative- abundance distribution are apparently quite different in form. The first is a sampling distribution while the other is a model of abundance of the underlying population. Bayesian methods help unite these two models in a common framework. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation can be used to fit both distributions as small hierarchical models with shared common assumptions. Sampling error can be assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Species not found in a sample, but suspected to be present in the region or community of interest, can be given zero abundance. This not only simplifies the process of model fitting, but also provides a convenient way of calculating confidence intervals for diversity indices. The method is especially useful when a comparison of species diversity between sites with different sample sizes is the key motivation behind the research. We illustrate the potential of the approach using data on fruit-feeding butterflies in southern Mexico. We conclude that, once all assumptions have been made transparent, a single data set may provide support for the belief that diversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic forest disturbance. Bayesian methods help to apply theory regarding the distribution of abundance in ecological communities to applied conservation.     

Temporal variability in winter travel patterns of Yellowstone bison: the effects of road grooming.

The influence of winter recreation on wildlife in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Wyoming and Montana, USA, is a controversial issue. In particular, the effects of road grooming, done to facilitate snowmobile and snowcoach travel, on bison (Bison bison) ecology are under debate. We collected data during winters, from 1997 to 2005, on bison road use, off-road travel, and activity budgets to quantify temporal trends in the amount of bison road and off-road travel and to identify the ecological factors affecting bison movements and use of the groomed road system in the Madison-Gibbon-Firehole (MGF) area of YNP. Using model comparison techniques, we found bison travel patterns to be influenced by multiple, interacting effects. Road travel was negatively correlated with road grooming, and we found no evidence that bison preferentially used groomed roads during winter. Snow water equivalent, bison density, and the springtime melt period were positively correlated with both bison road and off-road travel. From behavioral scans on 68,791 bison, we found that travel is only a small percentage (11%) of all bison activity, with foraging comprising 67% of observations. Also, only 7% of traveling bison and 30% of foraging bison were displacing snow, and we suggest foraging, rather than traveling, is likely the major energetic cost to bison in winter. Bison utilize their own trail network, connecting foraging areas using stream corridors, geothermal pathways, and self-groomed travel routes. Our results indicate that temporal patterns in bison road travel are a manifestation of general travel behavior and that groomed roads in the MGF do not appear to be a major factor influencing bison ecology and spatial redistribution. We suggest that the changes in bison spatial dynamics during the past three decades have likely been the result of the natural phenomenon of density-dependent range expansion, rather than having been caused by the anthropogenic influence of road grooming.     

The behavioural basis of a species replacement: differential aggresssion and predation between the introduced Gammarus pulex and the native G. duebeni celticus (Amphipoda)

Previous studies have shown that differential predation by males on moulted female congenerics may be largely responsible for the elimination and replacement of the native Irish freshwater amphipod Gammarus duebeni celticus by the introduced G. pulex. Predation of moulted females occurs both shortly after their release from precopulatory mate-guarding and whilst they are being guarded by their mates. In the present study, two hypotheses concerning the underlying cause(s) of the differential predation pattern are tested. Firstly, female G. d. celticus may be more vulnerable to predation than female G. pulex due to the former being released from precopula guarding with the new exoskeleton in a less hardened state. Secondly, G. pulex may be an inherently more aggressive species than G. d. celticus during predatory interactions over guarded females. The first experiment indicated that differential predation was not mediated by species differences in the state of the female exoskeleton at the time of release from precopula by guarding males. The second experiment, however, showed that male G. pulex were significantly more aggressive than male G. d. celticus in attacking both guarding male congenerics and guarded moulted female congenerics. In addition, in defence against predatory attacks, paired male and female G. pulex were significantly more aggressive than paired male and female G. d. celticus. These differences in aggressive behaviour led to a significantly higher frequency of predation on G. d. celticus females than on G. pulex females, and also explains this finding in previous studies. It is concluded that differential predation due to differences in aggressive behaviour may explain the pattern of replacement between these species.     

Inhibition of glycosidases by Lepidoptera; roles in the insects and leads to novel compounds?

Summary Glycosidase inhibitors are widespread in plants and can be sequestered by Lepidoptera, for which they can presumably serve as defences by making the insects indigestible to a range of potential predators. As a result of this study of eight British species of moth and butterfly it was found that glycosidase inhibitors in the insects could then be detected in the larval food plants which were not previously known to contain them; however, some were only detectable in the plants after concentration. In some cases the inhibition of specific glycosidases by Lepidoptera was detected even though the insects had not apparently acquired them from their food plants. Inhibition of-N-acetylglucosaminidase was observed in most of the adult Lepidoptera analysed but further work is required to identify the inhibitors, though they are likely to be nitrogen-containing compounds. Weak anti-HIV activity was also observed in the glycosidase-inhibiting fractions ofAcherontia atropos and the plantUrtica dioica.     

Air pollution effects on hospital admissions: a statistical analysis of parallel time series

A statistical model for longitudinal count data is used to examine the potential adverse health effects of ambient air pollution. Daily respiratory admissions to 164 acute care hospitals in Ontario are obtained for the period 1983 to 1988. Estimates of ozone levels in the vicinity of each hospital are determined from air pollution monitoring stations maintained by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Generalized estimating equation methods are used to make inferences about the regression and overdispersion parameters. The admission data display little evidence of serial correlation and extra Poisson variation. However, admission rates vary considerably among hospitals. This latter source of variation needs to be taken into account in examining the effects of air pollution on respiratory health status.     

Directions in Conservation Biology: Comments on Caughley

The recent review by Caughley (1994) on approaches used in conservation biology suggested that there are two: the small population paradigm and the declining population paradigm. We believe that this division is overly simplistic and that it should not be perpetuated. Both the deterministic factors that reduce population size and the stochastic factors that lead to the final extinction of a small population are critical to consider in preventing extinction. Only through an overall and comprehensive effort, which we call inclusive population viability analysis, can extinction processes be understood and mitigated. In this context we discuss Caughley's comments about genetics, demography, and general population viability, with particular attention to cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) and Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus sp. ) .