Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in leachates from selected landfill sites in South Africa

The last few decades have seen dramatic growth in the scale of production and the use of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) as flame retardants. Consequently, PBDEs such as BDE -28, -47, -66, -71, -75, -77, -85, -99, -100, -119, -138, -153, -154, and -183 have been detected in various environmental matrices. Generally, in South Africa, once the products containing these chemicals have outlived their usefulness, they are discarded into landfill sites. Consequently, the levels of PBDEs in leachates from landfill sites may give an indication of the general exposure and use of these compounds. The present study was aimed at determining the occurrence and concentrations of most common PBDEs in leachates from selected landfill sites. The extraction capacities of the solvents were also tested. Spiked landfill leachate samples were used for the recovery tests. Separation and determination of the PBDE congeners were carried out with a gas chromatograph equipped with Ni63 electron capture detector. The mean percentage recoveries ranged from 63% to 108% (n=3) for landfill leachate samples with petroleum ether giving the highest percentage extraction. The mean concentrations of PBDEs obtained ranged from ND to 2670pgl(-1), ND to 6638pgl(-1), ND to 7230pgl(-1), 41 to 4009pgl(-1), 90 to 9793pgl(-1) for the Garankuwa, Hatherly, Kwaggarsrand, Soshanguve and Temba landfill sites, respectively. Also BDE -28, -47, -71 and BDE-77 were detected in the leachate samples from all the landfill sites; and all the congeners were detected in two of the oldest landfill sites. The peak concentrations were recorded for BDE-47 at three sites and BDE-71 and BDE-75 at two sites. The highest concentration, 9793+/-1.5pgl(-1), was obtained for the Temba landfill site with the highest BOD value. This may suggest some influence of organics on the level of PBDEs. Considering the leaching characteristics of brominated flame retardants, there is a high possibility that with time these compounds may infiltrate into the groundwater around the sites since most of the sites are not adequately lined.     

Using data linkage to assess the impact of motorized recreational vehicle-related injuries in Ohio

Problem

Motorized recreational vehicle (MRV)-related injuries can result in severe medical and financial consequences. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology, and clinical and financial impact of MRV-related injuries in Ohio.

Method

Probabilistically linked statewide Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and hospital (inpatient and emergency department) data for 2003 and 2004 were examined. Record pairs with a MRV-related E-code (E821-E823, E825) were included in this study.

Results

There were 2,893 patients with MRV-related injuries, who had linked EMS and hospital records, resulting in more than $15 million in hospital charges and 1,921 inpatient days of hospitalization. The male-to-female ratio was nearly 4:1, and 19% were younger than 16. Almost 82% of cases were not wearing a helmet; there was a trend of decreasing helmet use with increasing age. Mean (SE) inpatient hospital charges and length of stay (LOS) were $22,218 ($1,290) and 3.8 (0.2) days, respectively. The mean (SE) Injury Severity Score (ISS) for inpatients was 9.2 (0.4). Individuals injured on a street/highway were 3.20 times more likely to sustain an ISS ≥ 16 (95% CI: 1.03, 9.88; p = 0.044) and 3.05 times more likely to sustain a traumatic brain injury (TBI) (95% CI: 1.17, 7.94; p = 0.024) than those who were injured at a place designated for sport or recreation. Children aged 12 to 15 and young adults aged 16 to 25 were 2.47 and 2.14 times more likely, respectively, to sustain a TBI than adults aged 36 or older (aged 12 to 15: 95% CI: 1.13, 5.38; p = 0.024; aged 16 to 25: 95% CI: 1.26, 3.64; p = 0.005). Higher ISS was associated with both higher total charges (p < 0.001) and longer LOS (p < 0.001).

Discussion

This study demonstrates that MRV-related injuries are an important public health problem in Ohio, with a substantial clinical and financial impact.

Impact on Industry

Enactment and enforcement of statewide MRV safety legislation and training of MRV users offer valuable opportunities to prevent these costly injuries.     

Environmental evaluation for workplace violence in healthcare and social services

PROBLEM: Federal policy recommends environmental strategies as part of a comprehensive workplace violence program in healthcare and social services. The purpose of this project was to contribute specific, evidence-based guidance to the healthcare and social services employer communities regarding the use of environmental design to prevent violence. METHOD: A retrospective record review was conducted of environmental evaluations that were performed by an architect in two Participatory Action Research (PAR) projects for workplace violence prevention in 2000 and, in the second project in 2005. Ten facility environmental evaluation reports along with staff focus group reports from these facilities were analyzed to categorize environmental risk factors for Type II workplace violence. RESULTS: Findings were grouped according to their impact on access control, the ability to observe patients (natural surveillance), patient and worker safety (territoriality), and activity support. DISCUSSION: The environmental assessment findings reveal design and security issues that, if corrected, would improve safety and security of staff, patients, and visitors and reduce fear and unpredictability. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Healthcare and social assistance employers can improve the effectiveness of violence prevention efforts by including an environmental assessment with complementary hazard controls.     

Trends in land use and land cover change in the protected and communal areas of the Zambezi Region,Namibia

Land management decisions have extensively modified land use and land cover in the Zambezi Region. These decisions are influenced by land tenure classifications, legislation, and livelihoods. Land use and land cover change is an important indicator for quantifying the effectiveness of different land management strategies. However, there has been no evidence on whether protected or communal land tenure is more affected by land use and land cover changes in southern Africa and particularly Namibia. Our study attempted to fill this gap by analyzing the relationship between land use and land cover change and land tenure regimes stratified according to protected and communal area in the Zambezi Region. Multi-temporal Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery were used to determine the temporal dynamics of land use and land cover change from 1984 to 2010. The landscape showed distinctive modifications over the study period; broad trends include the increase in forest land after 1991. However, changes were not uniform across the study areas. Two landscape development stages were deduced: (1) 1984–1991 represented high deforestation and gradual increase in shrub land; (2) 1991–2000 and 2000–2010 represented lower deforestation and slower agropastoral expansion. The results further show clear patterns of the dynamics, magnitude, and direction of land use and land cover change by tenure regime. The study concluded that land tenure has a direct impact on land use and land cover, since it may restrict some activities carried out on the land in the Zambezi Region.     

Characterization of As and trace metals embedded in PM10 particles in Puebla City, México

Forty-eight air-filter samples (PM₁₀) were analysed to identify the concentration level of partially leached metals (PLMs; As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and V) from Puebla City, México. Samples were collected during 2008 from four monitoring sites: (1) Tecnológico (TEC), (2) Ninfas (NIN), (3) Hermanos Serdán (HS) and (4) Agua Santa (AS). The results indicate that in TEC, As (avg. 424 ng m^?3), V (avg. 19.2 ng m^?3), Fe (avg. 1,202 ng m^?3), Cu (avg. 86.6 ng m^?3), Cr (41.9 ng m^?3) and Ni (18.6 ng m^?3) are on the higher side than other populated regions around the world. The enrichment of PLMs is due to the industrial complexes generating huge dust particles involving various operations. The results are supported by the correlation of metals (Mn, Cd and Co) with Fe indicating its anthropogenic origin and likewise, As with Cd, Co, Fe, Mn, Pb and V. The separate cluster of As, Fe and Mn clearly signifies that it is due to continuous eruption of fumaroles from the active volcano Popocatépetl in the region.     

Assessment of metal pollution in urban road dusts from selected highways of the Greater Toronto Area in Canada

Over the last several decades, there has been increased attention on the heavy metal contamination associated with highways because of the associated health hazards and risks. Here, the results are reported of an analysis of the content of metals in roadside dust samples of selected major highways in the Greater Toronto Area of Ontario, Canada. The metals analysed are lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), calcium (Ca), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg) and iron (Fe). In the samples collected, the recorded mean concentrations (in parts per million) are as follows: Cd (0.51), Cu (162), Fe (40,052), Cr (197.9), K (9647.6), Mg (577.4), Ca (102,349), Zn (200.3), Mn (1202.2), Pb (182.8) and Ni (58.8). The mean concentrations for the analysed samples in the study area are almost all higher than the average natural background values for the corresponding metals. The geo-accumulation index of these metals in the roadside dust under study indicates that they are not contaminated with Cr, Mn and Ca; moderately contaminate with Cd and K; strongly contaminated with Fe and Mg; strongly to extremely contaminated with Ni and Pb; and extremely contaminated with Cu and Zn. The pollution load index (PLI) is used to relate pollution to highway conditions, and the results show that PLI values are slightly low at different samples collected from Highways 401 and 404 and high in many samples collected from Highway 400 and the Don Valley Parkway. Highway 400 exhibits the highest PLI values.     

Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.