A modelling approach to determine the origin of urban ground water

A simple modelling approach was developed to link patterns of urban land-use with ground water flow and chemistry in three dimensions and was applied to characterize the origin of recharge in the aquifer beneath the old industrial city of Nottingham, UK. The approach involved dividing land uses into types, and times into periods, and assigning the recharge from each an individual tracer-solute with a unit concentration. The computer code MT3DMS was used to track the multiple tracer-solutes in transient, three-dimensional simulations of the important urban aquifer. A depth-specific hydrochemical dataset collected in parallel supported the model predictions. At depth under the industrial area studied, a large component of ground water originated of older agricultural origin, with relatively low nitrate concentrations. Shallower ground water originated mainly from residential and industrial areas, with higher nitrate concentrations probably arising from leaking sewers and contaminated land. The results highlighted the spectrum of ground water from different origins that amalgamate even at short well screens in a non-pumped borehole and remind us that the non-point-source pollution of ground water from anthropogenic activities will involve more years of slow degradation of quality.     

On the preconditions for large-scale collective action

Ambio - The phenomenon of collective action and the origin of collective action problems have been extensively and systematically studied in the social sciences. Yet, while we have substantial...     

Comparing the impacts of mitigation and non-mitigation on mountain pine beetle populations

Mountain pine beetles, Dendroctonus ponderosae (Hopkins) attack and can ultimately kill individuals and groups of pine trees, specifically lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud var. latifolia Engl.). In British Columbia, beetle attack has increased from 164 000 ha in 1999 to over 13 million ha in 2008. Mitigation efforts can play a key role in addressing the impact beetle infestations can have on the forested landscape. In this research, the impact of mitigation on a mountain pine beetle infestation is examined within a network of 28 research plots where sanitation harvesting was completed (10 mitigated plots) and not completed (18 unmitigated plots). Three forest stand level modelling scenarios which predict the number of attacked trees, based on current infestation within the plots, were utilized to compare the differences between mitigated and non-mitigated plots. In the first scenario in the non-mitigated plots, 125 trees were infested after 10 years, while in the mitigated plots no trees were infested in the same time period. The second scenario indicates the level of mitigation required to suppress beetle infestations where the proportion of mitigated trees was calculated for each plot by counting the residual attack and the number of mitigated trees. The average mitigation rate over all plots of 43% (range 0–100%) is not sufficient to provide control. In the non-mitigated plots, the average population expansion rate was 5 (range of 0–18) which requires a detection accuracy of 74% to reliably detect infestation. The third scenario estimated the length of time required for ongoing detection, monitoring, and mitigation to bring an infestation under control. If mitigation efforts were maintained at the current rate of 43%, the beetle population would not be adequately controlled. However, when aided by continued detection and monitoring of attacked trees, mitigation rates greater than 50% are sufficient to control infestations, especially with persistent implementation, aided by continued detection and monitoring of infested trees.     

Application of fuzzy logic to explosion risk assessment

Safety and health of workers potentially being at risk from explosive atmospheres are regulated by separate regulations (ANSI/AIHA in USA and ATEX in the European Union). The ANSI/AIHA does not require risk assessment whereas it is compulsory for ATEX. There is no standard method to do that assessment. For that purpose we have applied the explosion Layer of Protection Analysis (ExLOPA), which enables semi-quantitative risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The ExLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA taking into account an explosion accident scenario at workplace. That includes typical variables appropriate for workplace explosion like occurrence of the explosive atmosphere, the presence of effective ignition sources, activity of the explosion prevention and mitigation independent protection layers as well as the severity of consequences. All those variables are expressed in the form of qualitative linguistic categories and relations between them are presented using expert based engineering knowledge, expressed in the form of appropriate set of rules. In this way the category of explosion risk may be estimated by the semi-quantitative analysis. However, this simplified method is connected with essential uncertainties providing over or under estimation of the explosion risk and may not provide real output data.In order to overcome this problem and receive more detailed quantitative results, the fuzzy logic system was applied. In the first stage called fuzzification, all linguistic categories of the variables are mapped by fuzzy sets. In the second stage, the number of relation between all variables of analysis are determined by the enumerative combinatorics and the set of the 810 fuzzy rules “IF-THEN” is received. Each rule enables determination of the fuzzy risk level for a particular accident scenario. In the last stage, called defuzzification, the crisp value of final risk is obtained using a centroid method. The final result of the risk presents a contribution of each risk category represented by the fuzzy sets (A, TA, TNA and NA) and is therefore more precise and readable than the traditional approach producing one category of risk only. Fuzzy logic gives a possibility of better insights into hazards and safety phenomena for each explosion risk scenario. It is not possible to receive such conclusions from the traditional ExLOPA calculation results. However it requires the application of computer-aided analyses which may be partially in conflict with a simplicity of ExLOPA.The practical example provides a comparison between the traditional results obtained by ExLOPA and by fuzzy ExLOPA methods.     

Interrogating Social Sustainability in the Biofuels Sector in Latin America: Tensions Between Global Standards and Local Experiences in Mexico,Brazil, and Colombia

Across the Americas, biofuels production systems are diverse due to geographic conditions, historical patterns of land tenure, different land use patterns, government policy frameworks, and relations between the national state and civil society, all of which shape the role that biofuels play in individual nations. Although many national governments throughout the Americas continue to incentivize growth of the biofuels industry, one key challenge for biofuels sustainability has been concern about its social impacts. In this article, we discuss some of the key social issues and tensions related to the recent expansion of biofuels production in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil. We argue that a process of “simplification” of ecological and cultural diversity has aided the expansion of the biofuels frontier in these countries, but is also undermining their viability. We consider the ability of governments and non-state actors in multi-stakeholder initiatives (MSI) to address social and environmental concerns that affect rural livelihoods as a result of biofuels expansion. We analyze the tensions between global sustainability standards, national level policies for biofuels development, and local level impacts and visions of sustainability. We find that both government and MSI efforts to address sustainability concerns have limited impact, and recommend greater incorporation of local needs and expertise to improve governance.     

Bridging Disciplines, Knowledge Systems and Cultures in Pest Management

The success of research in integrated environmental and natural resource management relies on the participation and involvement of different disciplines and stakeholders. This can be difficult to achieve in practice because many initiatives fail to address the underlying social processes required for successful engagement and social learning. We used an action research approach to support a research-based group with a range of disciplinary and stakeholder expertise to critically reflect on their engagement practice and identify lessons around how to collaborate more effectively. This approach is provided here as a guide that can be used to support reflective research practice for engagement in other integration-based initiatives. This paper is set in the context of an integrated wildlife management research case study in New Zealand. We illustrate how multi-, inter- and trans-disciplinary approaches can provide a framework for considering the different conversations that need to occur in an integrated research program. We then outline rubrics that list the criteria required in inter- and trans-disciplinary collaborations, along with examples of effective engagement processes that directly support integration through such efforts. Finally, we discuss the implications of these experiences for other researchers and managers seeking to improve engagement and collaboration in integrated science, management and policy initiatives. Our experiences reaffirm the need for those involved in integrative initiatives to attend to the processes of engagement in both formal and informal settings, to provide opportunities for critical reflective practice, and to look for measures of success that acknowledge the importance of effective social process.     

Detecting Insect Pollinator Declines on Regional and Global Scales

Recently there has been considerable concern about declines in bee communities in agricultural and natural habitats. The value of pollination to agriculture, provided primarily by bees, is >$200 billion/year worldwide, and in natural ecosystems it is thought to be even greater. However, no monitoring program exists to accurately detect declines in abundance of insect pollinators; thus, it is difficult to quantify the status of bee communities or estimate the extent of declines. We used data from 11 multiyear studies of bee communities to devise a program to monitor pollinators at regional, national, or international scales. In these studies, 7 different methods for sampling bees were used and bees were sampled on 3 different continents. We estimated that a monitoring program with 200–250 sampling locations each sampled twice over 5 years would provide sufficient power to detect small (2–5%) annual declines in the number of species and in total abundance and would cost U.S.$2,000,000. To detect declines as small as 1% annually over the same period would require >300 sampling locations. Given the role of pollinators in food security and ecosystem function, we recommend establishment of integrated regional and international monitoring programs to detect changes in pollinator communities. Detección de Declinaciones de Insectos Polinizadores a Escalas Regional y Global     

How to consolidate Trevor’s experience and knowledge? Impossibilities,reflections on possibilities,and call to action

Looking back, significant progress in process safety and the knowledge to achieve a safe level has been made. Professor Kletz with his wise and concise maxims has shown us in many respects the way to go, yet more direction is needed for transfer of this knowledge to new generations. After a brief problem analysis, a sketch is given of various developments in the field of process safety, such as our knowledge on hazardous properties, hazard and risk analysis tools, human aspects, trends and developments in industry, and future perspectives. Subsequently, an analysis is made of the knowledge infrastructure required to maintain and to improve a knowledge base. In particular, scenario identification and modeling is mentioned. To that end the ‘lessons learned’ in the past should be better used. This has proven not to be easy. A way to go is indicated that in the longer term may reap success. However, in the present climate, funds for research are scarce and that for safety research are scant. Research is not only to develop new knowledge but is also of crucial importance to maintain quality academic education and the formation of ‘teacher of teachers’. A recent initiative is reported to bring this problem to the attention of policy makers worldwide.     

Experimental measurement and numerical analysis of binary hydrocarbon mixture flammability limits

The flammability limits of binary hydrocarbon mixtures in air were measured in a combustion apparatus using an innovative method developed for this apparatus. The experimental results were obtained at standard conditions (room temperature and ambient atmospheric pressure) with upward flame propagation. The experimentally determined flammability limits for pure hydrocarbons (methane and ethylene) were compared with existing data reported in the literature. Le Chatelier's Law was fit to all experimental data to obtain LFLs and UFLs for various two-component combinations of saturated and unsaturated hydrocarbons (methane, ethylene, acetylene, propane, propylene, and n-butane). A modification of this law was used if experimental observations showed large deviations from Le Chatelier's predictions. Also, experimentally measured flammability limit data of the binary hydrocarbon mixtures were analytically related to the stoichiometric concentrations.