Uncertainty techniques in liquefied natural gas (LNG) dispersion calculations

The dynamic development of the LNG sector increases the risk of major accidents. Uncontrolled releases of LNG during the processes of manufacturing, distribution, storage, and regasification can pose a serious threat to people, facilities, and the environment. Therefore, an important goal is to determine hazard zones and the extent of potential consequences associated with a release of LNG. The key issue is to estimate these with the least level of uncertainty. The largest part of uncertainty comes from the modeling of LNG release sources and performing dispersion calculations. It is connected with the application of different mathematical models, the adoption of a number of simplifying assumptions, approximations, empirical relations, constants, and a lack of knowledge.This paper proposes a general procedure for calculating the release rate and duration time of the LNG release, pool spreading, vaporization, as well as dispersion, taking into consideration the uncertainty. The procedure consists of two parts. The first part concerns the sensitivity analysis to identify the most uncertain parameters of the LNG source term and dispersion models. The second part applies to two techniques used to include the uncertainty aspects of fuzzy sets and the Monte Carlo method for calculating hazard zones. In order to provide a basis for comparison between these two approaches, the shape of the membership functions used in the fuzzy methods are the same as the shape of the probability density function used in the Monte Carlo simulation. The case study, concerning an LNG release, illustrates the application of the proposed techniques.     

IMPROVING IRRIGATION WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE INDUS BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Over half of the water delivered from the canal system to the watercourses managed by the farmers is not made available to the farmers' crops in Pakistan. Most of this water loss is due to loss of water through the banks of the watercourses. Lack of maintaining these banks and lack of cleaning the watercourse is a result of inadequate organization of the 10 to 150 farmers who use the watercourse, and a deficiency of knowledge concerning the amount of their water which is being lost. Various methods of watercourse improvement have been evaluated including concrete and masonry linings and simple earthen improvements of the ditches with concrete control structures, junctions, and turnouts. With the cost of labor low in Pakistan, the earthen improvements with concrete structures appear to be the best investment. Farm water management improvement programs have been implemented in most of the provinces which include this type of watercourse improvement, land leveling and advice to the farmers on how and when to irrigate his crops to optimize his production. The rate at which personnel can be trained to help the farmers implement these improved water management practices is limiting the rate of implementation.     

Policies and regulations for Brazil’s artisanal gold mining sector: analysis and recommendations

In Brazil, artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) produces in the range of 6 tonnes of gold (Au) per annum, and employs approximately 200,000 people. Most of this mining activity is in the Amazon region, where miners have been extracting gold for more than 40 years. In the Tapajos River Basin, assessments indicate that around 99% of miners operate without the environmental and mining permits required by law. This is a result of a combination of unrealistic or lack of proper policies and regulations, lack of political will, lack of infra-structure to enforce the existing regulations and lack of incentives to miners to comply with legal requirements.In this article, we analyze a group of 20 laws, decrees and resolutions in Brazil, focusing on how idiosyncrasies in these regulations reveal gaps between policy and reality in ASGM areas. Artisanal miners operate in vast and remote areas and the government lacks the resources (personnel, vehicles, information and materials) to enforce the laws. Our analysis emphasizes the need for creating new government commitments and identifying priority areas where government agents can focus their efforts.There is no single solution for the environmental, health, technical and socio-economic problems associated with ASGM. However, a realistic approach should consider improving the level of education of miners, creating government programs to provide technical assistance in the field, simplifying administrative procedures and ensuring adequate measures for enforcement.     

Sources and fate of nitrosodimethylamine and its precursors in municipal wastewater treatment plants.

To assess the occurrence and fate of nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) and its precursors in wastewater treatment plants, samples from wastewater treatment plants and industrial sources were analyzed for NDMA, total NDMA precursors, and dimethylamine (DMA). The median concentration of NDMA in untreated wastewater was approximately 80 ng/L, with maximum concentrations up to 790 ng/L presumably occuring because of sources unrelated to domestic wastewater. Concentrations of DMA in untreated wastewater ranged from approximately 50 to 120 microg/L and accounted for a majority of the NDMA precursors. The removal of NDMA during secondary biological treatment exhibited considerable variability, with overall removal ranging from 0 to 75%. In contrast, removal of NDMA precursors and DMA generally exceeded 70%. The median concentration of NDMA in secondary effluent before disinfection was 46 ng/L. Although DMA was removed during secondary treatment, other NDMA precursors in wastewater effluent will result in formation of additional NDMA upon disinfection with chloramines.     

Leaching of trifluralin,metolachlor, and metribuzin in a clay loam soil of Louisiana

Trifluralin[2,6-dinitro-N,N-dipropyl-4-(trifluormethyl)benzenamine], metolachlor[2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide], and metribuzin[4-amino-6-(1,1-dimethylethyl)-3-(methylthio)-1,2,4-triazin-5(4H)one] were applied in field plots located on a Commerce clay loam soil near Baton Rouge, Louisiana at the rate of 1683 g/ha, 2759 g/ha and 609 g/ha, respectively. The half-lives of trifluralin, metolachlor, and metribuzin in the top 0-15 cm soil depth were found to be 54.7 days, 35.8 days and 29.8 days, respectively. The proportion of trifluralin, metolachlor, and metribuzin in the top 0-15 cm soil depth was 94.7%, 86.6%, and 75.4%, respectively of that found in the top 0-60 cm soil depth 30 days after application. Trifluralin concentrations were within a range of 0.026 ng/mL to 0.058 ng/mL in 1 m deep well water, and between 0.007 ng/mL and 0.039 ng/mL in 2 m deep well water over a 62 day period after application. Metolachlor concentrations in the 1 m and 2 m wells ranged from 3.62 ng/mL to 82.32 ng/mL and 8.44 ng/mL to 15.53 ng/mL, respectively. Whereas metribuzin concentrations in the 1 m and 2 m wells ranged from 0.70 ng/mL to 27.75 ng/mL and 1.71 ng/mL to 3.83 ng/mL, respectively. Accordingly, trifluralin was found to be strongly adsorbed on the soil and showed negligible leaching. Although metolachlor and metribuzin were also both readily adsorbed on the soil, their leaching potential was high. As a result, in the clay loam soil studied, metribuzin concentration in groundwater with shallow aquifers is likely to exceed the 10 mg/L US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) advisory level for drinking water early in the application season, whereas trifluralin and metolachlor concentrations are expected to remain substantially lower than their respective 2 ng/mL and 175 ng/mL EPA advisory levels.     

Environmental impact assessment in ghana-anex post evaluation of the volta resettlement scheme: the case of the Kpong Hydro-electric project

Summary Many Third World Countries (TWCs), like Ghana, have not concerned themselves seriously with environmental problems as part of the entire socio-economic development process, until recently. This, for example, can be seen in their environmental policies and the rate at which these now are being made. Not only are environmental issues being considered in the formulation and implementation of new development programmes and projects, but it is being realised that earlier implemented projects need some evaluation,ex post, for possible, correction of past mistakes or, at least, as a source of self-containment. Thus, there has been interest in the impact assessment of past macro-projects as agricultural and resettlement schemes.An attempt is made to apply a simple matrices methodology to theex post evaluation of the Kpong Hydro-electric Project resettlement aspect, based on identified project and environment components. The results show that the impact on the socio- economic life of the settlers is positively greater than the physical and biological impacts. But considering other elements of the programme package and taking a perspective view, the settlers are after all, no better off. In view of the fact that a number of such schemes are now under consideration, it is useful for policy-makers and planners to learn from these lessons.Sam Ofori-Cudjoe is a Lecturer in Geography at the University of Cape Coast, Ghana. He is currently studying planning research at the Centre for Planning, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow. He obtained a BA (Hons) in Geography from the Department of Geography, University of Ghana, Legon, in 1978, and a MSc (Regional Planning) from the Department of Planning, University of Science and Technology (UST), Kumasi, Ghana, in 1981.     

MONITORING OPERATIONS PERFORMANCE IN LARGE-SCALE PUBLIC IRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN INDONESIA1

ABSTRACT: Different allocation and delivery performance ratios are used to assess operations performance in a large scale public irrigation system in Indonesia. Results from this analysis indicate that field management practices deviate substantially from the official operating procedures. The lack of application of a single, standardized procedure for planning water allocations represents a serious constraint to effective monitoring and evaluating system performance. Underestimated and unrealistic planned allocations becomes the justification for overdiversion of water, and has the effect of undermining the resolve of managers to see to it that actual flows meet planned flows. Miscalculating planned allocations, poor matches between planned flows and actual deliveries, overdiversion and misreporting have economic consequences as well. For example, strict adherence to the standard operating rule during the second dry season of 1987 would have resulted in 19,070,000 m³ less water diverted into the irrigation system from the Brantas River or, at a conservative estimate of $1.78 per 100 m³ water, a savings of $339,500. Scope exists for making improvements in management by closer adherence to the standard delivery rule, which will also facilitate proper monitoring and evaluation.     

Towards improved socio-economic assessments of ocean acidification’s impacts

Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a component of global change that could have a wide range of impacts on marine organisms, the ecosystems they live in, and the goods and services they provide humankind. Assessment of these potential socio-economic impacts requires integrated efforts between biologists, chemists, oceanographers, economists and social scientists. But because ocean acidification is a new research area, significant knowledge gaps are preventing economists from estimating its welfare impacts. For instance, economic data on the impact of ocean acidification on significant markets such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism are very limited (if not non-existent), and non-market valuation studies on this topic are not yet available. Our paper summarizes the current understanding of future OA impacts and sets out what further information is required for economists to assess socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification. Our aim is to provide clear directions for multidisciplinary collaborative research.     

Management of water resources of the Nile Basin

SUMMARY

A water crisis is looming in the Nile Basin in the near future due to higher population growth rates, greater affluence, and higher demand for water by agriculture and industry. There is no basin-wide agreement among the ten Nile Basin states and the existing rules of international water management are complicated and are not equipped to handle any future water conflicts in the Nile Basin. This paper reviews the existing water sharing arrangements among the Nile Basin countries, examines areas of potential conflict over future water use, and suggests possible areas of cooperation that will ensure equitable use of the Nile waters. The paper concludes by (1) appealing for formulation of good water development policies to deal with growing water needs such as water quality protection, efficiency of water delivery and efficiency of water use; and (2) calling for human resources development and technology transfers that are critical for good management and efficient use of the water resources of the Nile.