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41.
Peng Lian Andres F. Mejia Zhengdong Cheng M. Sam Mannan 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2010,23(2):337-345
Accidental release of pressurized high flash point heat transfer fluids can result in fire and explosion hazard scenarios in the process industry. An experimental investigation on ignition of aerosols of a heat transfer fluid is carried out, and characterization of aerosol and its ignition process by non-intrusive laser diffraction technique is reported. Propagation speed of the aerosol combustion flame front as analyzed from the laser diffraction measurement agrees with high-speed visual camera observation. Flammability of the aerosol, which is based on the chances of the global flame appearance in the aerosol, is mainly controlled by aerosol droplet size and the droplet volume concentration. 相似文献
42.
Katherine P. Prem Dedy Ng Hans J. Pasman Mike Sawyer Yuyan Guo M. Sam Mannan 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2010,23(2):211-219
In this work, a novel approach is proposed for expressing the risks of process plants consisting of a large number of scenarios, in the form of a risk metrics of leading indicators to prevent potential high profile industry accidents. The methodology includes: 1) risk estimation of a portfolio by CPQRA (or QRA), 2) monetization of the tangible risks with the inclusion of the lost time of production, 3) estimation of the maximum portfolio loss using Value-at-Risk approach, 4) inclusion of intangible risks using FN-curve and, 5) generation of F$-curve of tangible risks. The proposed methodology can particularly help in understanding the stakes at risk by performing the overall cost-benefit analysis, for identifying the most risky scenarios and identifying critical equipments to enable better risk-informed decision making in order to adopt appropriate risk mitigation measures. This work establishes the groundwork for developing measures for understanding and comparing the large number of risk values derived from QRA studies for large portfolios. It will aid in less subjective decision making as it enables the decision maker to choose the most preferred portfolio option among alternatives. Decisions made with the accurate understanding of the consequences of risks can significantly reduce potential work-related fatalities, property losses and save millions of dollars. 相似文献
43.
Adam S. Markowski M. Sam Mannan Agata Kotynia Dorota Siuta 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2010,23(3):446-454
Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined. 相似文献
44.
45.
Katherine M. Dean Eustathios Petinakis Sam Meure Long Yu Andrew Chryss 《Journal of Polymers and the Environment》2012,20(3):741-747
Poly(lactic acid) (PLA) has been modified using twin-screw reactive extrusion to improve its melt properties and crystallinity. In this work lauroyl peroxide was used as an alkyl free radical source, abstracting hydrogen atoms from the PLA backbone leading to branching and chain extension reactions. Once the linear viscoelastic region was determined for these polymers, changes in dynamic rheology (dynamic viscosity real and loss modulus) were measured. Gel permeation chromatography showed that the molecular weight and polydispersity increased to a maximum with the addition of 1.00 and 0.50?wt% peroxide, respectively. Low temperature ?? transitions in dynamical mechanical thermal traces gave further evidence that branching had also occurred. G?ttfert Rheotens measurements showed a three fold increase in melt strength due to both increased chain length and branching. Thermal analysis showed the level of crystallisation had decreased also possibly due to branching. Reductions in crystallinity and improved melt strength are known to be critical for film and foam formation. 相似文献
46.
The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China. 相似文献
47.
Antioco López-Molina Richart Vázquez-Román M. Sam Mannan M. Guadalupe Félix-Flores 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2013,26(5):887-894
An approach to reduce the probability of producing a domino effect in process industry is developed in this work. It is assumed that optimal layouts should include appropriate analysis to reduce risk during the process design stage. The model developed for this approach combines the estimation of probability of damage due to overpressure, proposed by Mingguang and Juncheng (2008), and escalation threshold values defined by Cozzani, Gubinelli, and Salzano (2006). These equations are combined with other typical layout constraints as well as bounding the probability constraint, which has resulted in a highly non-linear MINLP problem. Solving a case study used by other authors provides evidence for reliability of the developed approach. In this way, layouts are designed to reduce the escalation probability yielding safe distributions. 相似文献
48.
Byung Kyu Kim Dedy Ng Ray A. Mentzer M. Sam Mannan 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2013,26(6):1670-1678
Concerns over public safety and security of a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) spill have promoted the need for continued improvement of safety measures for LNG facilities. The mitigation techniques have been recognized as one of the areas that require further investigation to determine the public safety impact of an LNG spill. Forced mitigation of LNG vapors using a water curtain system has been proven to be effective in reducing the vapor concentration by enhancing the dispersion. Currently, no engineering criteria for designing an effective water curtain system are available, mainly due to a lack of understanding of the complex droplet–vapor interaction. This work applies computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to evaluate various key design parameters involved in the LNG forced mitigation using an upwards-oriented full-cone water spray. An LNG forced dispersion model based on a Eulerian–Lagrangian approach was applied to solve the physical interactions of the droplet–vapor system by taking into account the various effects of the droplets (discrete phase) on the air–vapor mixture (continuous phase). The effects of different droplet sizes, droplet temperatures, air entrainment rates, and installation configurations of water spray applications on LNG vapor behavior are investigated. Finally, the potential of applying CFD modeling in providing guidance for setting up the design criteria for an effective forced mitigation system as an integrated safety element for LNG facilities is discussed. 相似文献
49.
Jelle S. van Zweden Christoph Grüter Sam M. Jones Francis L.W. Ratnieks 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2011,65(6):1277-1282
Social insects need to defend their nest against robbery, parasitism and predation. The stingless bee Tetragonisca angustula is unique in that it has guards that hover near the nest entrance in addition to guards that stand at the entrance. We tested
both the general hypothesis that hovering guards increase the effectiveness with which flying intruders are detected and the
specific hypothesis that hovering guards improve the detection of workers of the obligate robber bee, Lestrimellita limao. In an intraspecific study comparing colonies, we found a strong positive relationship between the number of hovering guards
and the distance at which a dummy robber bee or L. limao worker, experimentally moved towards the nest entrance, was detected. These results were mirrored in an interspecific study
showing that four species of stingless bees with similar population colonies but which lacked hovering guards, detected L. limao only at the nest entrance, in contrast to T. angustula. In addition, we found that a greater number of attacks by guards occurred when dummies were impregnated with citral, a major
component of L. limao mandibular gland odour. Our results support the hypothesis that T. angustula hovering guards increase the detection perimeter for flying intruders, especially L. limao. 相似文献
50.
Sam Provoost M. Laurence M. Jones Sally E. Edmondson 《Journal of Coastal Conservation》2011,15(1):207-226
In coastal dunes, landscape changes are a rule, rather than an exception. This paper gives an overview of changes in landscape
and vegetation with a focus on the past century. The history of dunes is characterised by phases of sand drift, alternated
with geomorphological stability. The historical development of dune woodland during these stable phases has been documented
for sites all over Europe. Vegetation reconstructions of historical open dune habitats however is very difficult due to limited
preservation of fossil remains. People have drastically altered coastal dune landscapes through centuries of exploitation
and more recently development of the coast. Historical land use has generally pushed vegetation back into a semi-natural state.
During roughly the past century a tendency of increasing fixation and succession is observed on coastal dunes throughout northwest
Europe. Six causes of change are discussed. 1) Changes in land use, mainly abandonment of agricultural practices, have led
to the development of late successional stages such as scrub and woodland. 2) Crashing rabbit populations due to myxomatosis
in the 1950s caused vigorous grass growth and probably stimulated scrub development. 3) A general tendency of landscape fixation
is observed due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. 4) Eutrophication, mainly due to atmospheric nitrogen deposition
is clearly linked to grass encroachment on acidic but also on some calcareous dunes. 5) The impact of climate change on vegetation
is still unclear but probably lengthening of growing season and maybe enhanced CO2 concentrations have led to an acceleration of succession. 6) A general anthropogenisation of the landscape occurs with rapid
spread of non-native species as an important consequence. The reconstruction of a natural reference landscape is considered
largely unattainable because of irreversible changes and the long tradition of human impact, in many cases since the development
of the dunes. Two contradictory elements need reconciliation. First, the general acceleration of succession and scrub and
woodland development in particular is partly caused by a decreased anthropogenic interference in the landscape and deserves
more appreciation. Second, most biodiversity values are largely linked to open, early succession dune habitats and are threatened
by the same tendency. Apart from internal nature management, in which grazing plays an important part, re-mobilisation of
stable, senescent dunes is an important challenge for dune management. 相似文献