Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse

Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes. Perhaps the most promising geoengineering technique is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which reflects incoming solar radiation, thereby lowering surface temperatures. This paper analyzes a scenario in which SAI brings great harm on its own. The scenario is based on the issue of SAI intermittency, in which aerosol injection is halted, sending temperatures rapidly back toward where they would have been without SAI. The rapid temperature increase could be quite damaging, which in turn creates a strong incentive to avoid intermittency. In the scenario, a catastrophic societal collapse eliminates society’s ability to continue SAI, despite the incentive. The collapse could be caused by a pandemic, nuclear war, or other global catastrophe. The ensuing intermittency hits a population that is already vulnerable from the initial collapse, making for a double catastrophe. While the outcomes of the double catastrophe are difficult to predict, plausible worst-case scenarios include human extinction. The decision to implement SAI is found to depend on whether global catastrophe is more likely from double catastrophe or from climate change alone. The SAI double catastrophe scenario also strengthens arguments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and against SAI, as well as for building communities that could be self-sufficient during global catastrophes. Finally, the paper demonstrates the value of integrative, systems-based global catastrophic risk analysis.     

Workers' perceptions of workplace safety: an African perspective.

This study investigated workers' perceptions of workplace safety in an African work environment, specifically in Ghanaian work places. Workers' safety perceptions were examined with Hayes et al.'s. (1998) Work Safety Scale. Comparative analyses were done between high- and low-accident groups, and t tests were employed to test for differences of statistical significance. Relative to their colleagues in the low-accident category, workers in the high-accident category exhibited negative perceptions on safety. They had negative perceptions regarding work safety, safety programmes, supervisors, and co-workers' contributions. Besides, they expressed less job satisfaction and were less committed to safety management policies. Perceptions regarding management's attitude towards safety between the 2 groups were not of statistical significance. The analyses provided an explanation for the cause of a substantial portion of the high rate of industrial accidents in Ghana's work environment. Implications for safety management are discussed.     

Upward movement of plutonium to surface sediments during an 11-year field study

An 11-year lysimeter study was established to monitor the movement of Pu through vadose zone sediments. Sediment Pu concentrations as a function of depth indicated that some Pu moved upward from the buried source material. Subsequent numerical modeling suggested that the upward movement was largely the result of invading grasses taking up the Pu and translocating it upward. The objective of this study was to determine if the Pu of surface sediments originated from atmosphere fallout or from the buried lysimeter source material (weapons-grade Pu), providing additional evidence that plants were involved in the upward migration of Pu. The ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu and ²⁴²Pu/²³⁹Pu atomic fraction ratios of the lysimeter surface sediments, as determined by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectroscopy (TIMS), were 0.063 and 0.00045, respectively; consistent with the signatures of the weapons-grade Pu. Our numerical simulations indicate that because plants create a large water flux, small concentrations over multiple years may result in a measurable accumulation of Pu on the ground surface. These results may have implications on the conceptual model for calculating risk associated with long-term stewardship and monitored natural attenuation management of Pu contaminated subsurface and surface sediments.     

How Preferences for Public Participation are Linked to Perceptions of the Context, Preferences for Outcomes, and Individual Characteristics

Practitioners and stakeholders involved in environmental and risk assessment and decision-making efforts have access to a growing list of policies and guidance for implementing good process. The advice is often general. There is little understanding of how situation specific features are relevant in new circumstances. In a series of ten case studies we investigated how people’s (a) perceptions of the context, (b) preferences for outcomes, and (c) affiliations, experiences and motivations are related to their preferences for process features in a particular situation. The cases are in three policy areas: watershed management, forestry management, and clean-up and public health management of radioactively contaminated sites. We conclude this paper with a discussion of how the results can inform process design. Process design should be based on a diagnostic approach that specifically assesses relevant situational characteristics.     

A lagrangian dispersion model for calculating concentration distribution within a built-up domain

A Lagrangian model to study the dispersion of pollutants between urban buildings is described. The flow field is supplied by an objective analysis (Rockle (1990) Ph.D. thesis, Vom Fachbereich Mechanik, der Technischen Hochschule Darmstadt, Germany) and is adjusted to satisfy the continuity equation. From the resulting; mass consistent field the Lagrangian diffusion parameters are eliminated. A 3-D Lagrangian diffusion model in a nonhomogeneous field is applied to calculate the pollutant distribution between the buildings. Several examples are studied and compared to wind tunnel measurements.     

Effect of Introduced Crayfish and Mosquitofish on California Newts

One goal of conservation biology is to explain population declines. We present field survey data and experimental evidence that implicate introduced predators as a possible cause of decline in the California newt ( Taricha torosa ). In 1994 and 1995 we surveyed 10 streams in the Santa Monica Mountains of southern California for amphibians. These streams contained California newts when surveyed between 1981 and 1986. Of the 10 streams surveyed in 1994, three contained introduced mosquitofish ( Gambusia affinis ) and/or crayfish ( Procambarus clarkii ). These three streams contained no California newt eggs, larvae, or adults. The seven streams without introduced predators contained California newts. We conducted laboratory and field experiments to determine if California newt larvae and egg masses are susceptible to predation by mosquitofish and crayfish. Results from these experiments indicate that crayfish consume California newt egg masses and that both mosquitofish and crayfish consume larval newts. In 24-hour field experiments, no newt larvae survived in crayfish enclosures, and only 13% of the larvae survived with mosquitofish. Newt larvae are known to have antipredator adaptations for native predators. Apparently, these adaptations are not adequate for coexistence with introduced crayfish or mosquitofish. Heavy rains in 1995 removed introduced crayfish from one stream. We found newt egg masses, larvae, and adults in that stream the following spring. This same stream showed no evidence of California newts when crayfish were present in matched-date surveys in 1994. These experiments and surveys present evidence that predation by mosquitofish and crayfish may cause localized decline of newts in mountain streams of southern California. Understanding the effects of nonnative species is an important step in preventing detrimental introductions in the future.     

Evaluation of a conceptual model for the subsurface transport of plutonium involving surface mediated reduction of PuV to PuIV

A conceptual model is proposed to explain the transport behavior of plutonium in laboratory columns packed with a sandy coastal soil from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Savannah River Site. The column transport experiments involved the introduction of a finite step input of plutonium, predominately in the +5 oxidation state, into the columns followed by elution with a low-carbonate solution of 0.02 M NaClO4 at pH 3, 5, and 8. Total plutonium concentrations were measured in the effluent as a function of time. These elution profiles suggest at least two distinct physical/chemical forms of plutonium, each with a different mobility. To explain the observed behavior, the following conceptual model was evaluated: [1] equilibrium partitioning of plutonium (V) and plutonium (IV) between the aqueous and sorbed phases as defined by pH-dependent, oxidation-state specific distribution coefficients and [2] kinetic reduction of plutonium (V) to plutonium (IV) in the sorbed phase. The conceptual model was applied to the column experiments through a one-dimensional advective/dispersive mathematical model, and predictions of the mathematical model were compared with the experimental data. Overall, the model was successful in predicting some of the major features observed in the experiments. It also yielded quantitative estimates of the rate constant for surface mediated reduction of plutonium (V) to plutonium (IV) that were of the same order (10(-4) to 10(-5) s(-1)) as those calculated from batch data both for this soil and for goethite.