TRENDS IN FRESHWATER INFLOW TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY FROM TUE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN DELTA1

ABSTRACT: Outflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin river system (Delta outflow) provides about 90 percent of the freshwater flow to San Francisco Bay. Because this river system also supplies most of the water used in California, some believed that annual freshwater flow to the Bay had declined by as much as 50 to 60 percent as water use increased. Consequently, we studied trends in actual Delta outflow and precipitation for the period 1921 to 1986, which is when Delta outflow data are available. We found that there has been no decrease in the annual Delta outflow over this period. In fact, a statistically significant increase in annual Delta outflow of 87 cfa/yr has occurred during the period 1921 to 1986. One reason that Delta outflow has increased is because precipitation has increased faster than water use. Other contributing factors include increased runoff from land use changes, water imports from other areas, and the redistribution of ground water. In addition, statistically significant seasonal trends in Delta outflow were found. Over the period 1921–1986 Delta outflow decreased in April and May and increased from July through November. Changes in other months were not statistically significant. These seasonal changes result primarily from the operation of upstream flood control and water development projects, which store water in the spring and release it in the summer and fall. These seasonal changes are also influenced by a climatic shift that has decreased spring snowmelt runoff and increased late summer through winter precipitation.     

Farmer decision making and spatial variables in northern Thailand

This research has two interrelated objectives. The first is to determine the extent to which a relationship exists between farmer characteristics and farming practices in three villages in northern Thailand. The second is to use standard statistical methods for incorporating spatial variables into the analysis and to assess the effects of these variables on farmer decision making. The data base includes information on the location and size of villages, roads, streams, and fields; a digital elevation model with information on elevation, slope, and aspect; and information keyed to individual fields on crops and cropping methods and the ethnicity, income, and religion of farmers. The map data (517 plots) were entered into a computerized geographic information systems (GIS). Results suggest several hypotheses about the relationships between land use and owner characteristics. More significantly, the study concludes that spatial analysis appears to be most useful when the dependent variable is either continuous or ordinal. The outlook is not quite as optimistic when the dependent variable is a nonordinal categorical variable. Before spatial analysis can be applied regularly to social science data, better computational tools need to be developed.     

Direct and indirect effects of climate and habitat factors on butterfly diversity

Many factors, including climate, resource availability, and habitat diversity, have been proposed as determinants of global diversity, but the links among them have rarely been studied. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we investigated direct and indirect effects of climate variables, host-plant richness, and habitat diversity on butterfly species richness across Britain, at 20-km grid resolution. These factors were all important determinants of butterfly diversity, but their relative contributions differed between habitat generalists and specialists, and whether the effects were direct or indirect. Climate variables had strong effects on habitat generalists, whereas host-plant richness and habitat diversity contributed relatively more for habitat specialists. Considering total effects (direct and indirect together), climate variables had the strongest link to butterfly species richness for all groups of species. The results suggest that different mechanistic hypotheses to explain species richness may be more appropriate for habitat generalists and specialists, with generalists hypothesized to show direct physiological limitations and specialists additionally being constrained by trophic interactions (climate affecting host-plant richness).     

Designing the Environmental Results Workshop: Historical Context, Causality and Candidate Species

During the past thirty years, researchers have been documenting the concentrations and effects of persistent toxic substances, such as DDT, PCBs, dioxins and furans, in populations of Great Lakes organisms. In designing the International Joint Commission's Workshop on Environmental Results, the organizers on the Great Lakes Science Advisory Board started from the premise that the selection of indicator organisms for long-term trend analysis requires that the causal relationships between the observed effects and the putative cause should be demonstrated and believed. However, the causal relationships that have been documented have generally been met with skepticism by fellow scientists and by regulatory officials resulting in no agreement on valid indicator organisms. To overcome this skepticism, wildlife, fisheries and human health researchers have adapted the epidemiological criteria used by medical and veterinary researchers for synthesizing the causal evidence. Brief reviews of several candidate species and of their suitability as long term monitors are presented, and the adequacy of monitoring programs for determining trends in the incidence of chemically-induced effects is assessed.     

Trapping phosphorus in runoff with a phosphorus removal structure

Reduction of phosphorus (P) inputs to surface waters may decrease eutrophication. Some researchers have proposed filtering dissolved P in runoff with P-sorptive byproducts in structures placed in hydrologically active areas with high soil P concentrations. The objectives of this study were to construct and monitor a P removal structure in a suburban watershed and test the ability of empirically developed flow-through equations to predict structure performance. Steel slag was used as the P sorption material in the P removal structure. Water samples were collected before and after the structure using automatic samples and analyzed for total dissolved P. During the first 5 mo of structure operation, 25% of all dissolved P was removed from rainfall and irrigation events. Phosphorus was removed more efficiently during low flow rate irrigation events with a high retention time than during high flow rate rainfall events with a low retention time. The six largest flow events occurred during storm flow and accounted for 75% of the P entering the structure and 54% of the P removed by the structure. Flow-through equations developed for predicting structure performance produced reasonable estimates of structure "lifetime" (16.8 mo). However, the equations overpredicted cumulative P removal. This was likely due to differences in pH, total Ca and Fe, and alkalinity between the slag used in the structure and the slag used for model development. This suggests the need for an overall model that can predict structure performance based on individual material properties.     

Design and Operating Parameters for a Large Ambient Aerosol Chamber

Recent investigations of ambient aerosol behavior over urban areas have pointed out the need for controlled experimental data to link together field investigation results and computer simulation studies. This paper describes the design considerations, construction details and operating parameters of a large (8000 ft³) outside reaction chamber constructed in rural North Carolina. The chamber is triangular in cross-section, 20 ft wide, 20 ft high and 40 ft long, and is covered with clear 5 ml Teflon film. The outdoor location of the chamber permits the reaction volume to be exposed to the natural conditions of temperature and solar radiation. A recirculating air system allows the air in the chamber to be passed through an “absolute” fiberglas filter for adjustment of condensation nuclei concentration and also through driers for humidity adjustment. Internal fans are provided for mixing of the chamber contents without use of the recirculating system so that various degrees of turbulence can be approximated. A sampling line from the chamber passes directly to an instrument room, located directly under the chamber, where direct analyses for particle composition, concentration, and size, and gas composition and concentration are carried out. Parameters which can be varied in this system include number, size, distribution, and chemical composition of pre-existing nuclei, as well as humidity, solar radiation, temperature, and trace gas concentration and composition.     

Photochemical Conversion of NO to NO2 by Hydrocarbons in an Outdoor Chamber

Significant differences occur between results of chamber work conducted outdoors versus work conducted indoors under constant light intensity. Under outdoor conditions at constant [NO_X]_O, lower [HC]o resulted in lower [NO₂]_max and NO₂ dosage during the daylight hours. The percent reduction in [NO₂]_max was a function of the [HC]₀ reduction and the [NO_X]_O level. Under all experimental conditions the 10 hour N0₂ average to maximum N0₂ concentration ratio appeared to be constant at 0.73 during the daylight hours. A regression equation relating [NO_x]_max to [NO_X]_O, [HC]_O, and measures of solar radiation accounted for 92% of the variance in the data. Although there is unavoidable confoundment between [HC]₀ and solar radiation, the HC term in this regression equation can introduce ±20 % change in [N0₂]_max - This variation can be partially offset or enhanced by variations in solar radiation.     

Modification of a full-scale sequencing batch reactor operational mode for biological nutrient removal.

Two biological nutrient removal modes, consisting of anaerobic, anoxic, and oxic sequences, were tested in a full-scale sequencing batch reactor. The modes, identified as BNR-S1 and BNR-S2, had average total nitrogen removals of 84 and 89%, respectively, for the months of August to October. Over the same period, total phosphorus removals for BNR-S1 and BNR-S2 were 88 and 87%, respectively. In contrast, total nitrogen and total phosphorus removals for the regular aerobic mode were 54.7 and 44.7%, respectively. When the wastewater temperature changed from approximately 20 to 15 degrees C in the winter months, total nitrogen and total phosphorus removals for BNR-S2 were reduced to 81 and 70%, respectively. Total nitrogen effluent concentrations were between 2.5 and 4 mg-N/L (at approximately 20 degrees C), while the effluent total phosphorus concentrations were between 1 and 2 mg/L. The BNR-S2 mode was found to require less energy per kilogram of soluble chemical oxygen demand removed than the regular and BNR-S1 modes.