应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Queen number, queen cycling and queen loss: the evolution of complex multiple queen societies in the social wasp genus Ropalidia

Complex, highly integrated societies have evolved from simpler societies repeatedly, and the social insects provide an excellent model system for understanding increasing complexity and integration. In the paper wasps, large societies, known as swarm-founding, have evolved repeatedly from smaller societies, known as independent-founding. Swarm-founding colonies have many more queens than independent-founding colonies, which should dramatically reduce relatedness, posing a challenge to cooperation. However, in each instance, swarm-founding species have also evolved a cyclical pattern of queen reduction which elevates relatedness despite high queen numbers. The genus Ropalidia provides an excellent system in which to study the transition to swarm-founding because it has both independent and swarm-founding species. We studied the Australian independent-founding wasp Ropalidia revolutionalis to better understand the evolution of multiple queens and their periodic reductions in swarm-founding wasps. Using microsatellite genetic markers we genotyped queens, workers and brood from 37 colonies and found that while most colonies had a single queen, three of the colonies had multiple queens at or immediately prior to the time of collection. An additional seven colonies had had multiple co-occurring queens earlier in the season. We also found that colonies experienced many queen losses, and that founding queens were gradually lost until they were replaced by a new cohort of daughter queens in many colonies. This pattern is similar to the periodic reductions and replacements in swarm-founding wasps and suggests that multiple queens and queen cycling evolved relatively early in the shift to swarm-founding in Ropalidia.Communicated by R. Page     

Tracing individual movements of aphids reveals preferential routes of population transfers in agroecosystems.

Agricultural pests are not restricted to crops, but often simultaneously or successively use different cultivated and uncultivated hosts. Nevertheless, the source-sink role of cultivated and uncultivated habitats in the life cycle of crop pests remains poorly understood. This is largely due to the difficulty of tracking displacements of small organisms in agricultural landscapes. We used stable-isotope ratios in order to infer the natal host plant of individuals of the English grain aphid Sitobion avenae colonizing wheat fields in autumn. We showed that among the numerous plant sources of S. avenae, maize, which has been intensively grown in western France since the 1960s, provided most aphids that attack wheat fields early in autumn. This study illustrates how insect pests respond to land-use changes within a relatively short period of time, rapidly acquiring a new host that in turn affected their population biology considerably by playing a pivotal role on their annual life cycle.     

Do female roe deer in good condition produce more sons than daughters

In polygynous roe deer Capreolus capreolus, males are only slightly heavier than females and the overall sex ratio at birth is close to unity. We studied offspring sex ratio and litter size (range 1–4, n = 74) of culled females, in utero, which provided an opportunity to examine responses of sex ratio to maternal condition. Male embryos were heavier than their sisters, and male fawns (9 months old) heavier than female fawns, suggesting a higher growth rate in males. There was no evidence for differential mortality between the sexes from birth to 9 months old. Heavier adult females produced larger embryos than lighter, or primiparous females. The overall sex ratio of embryos did not differ from unity, but adult does had more male embryos (55%) than primiparous does (32%), and the proportion of male embryos in a litter increased with the mother's body mass. Litter size also tended to increase with maternal age and body mass. We argue that this pattern reflects adaptive variation in offspring sex ratio.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in marine mammals in the Canadian North

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were determined in pooled samples of ringed seal (Phoca hispida) blubber, beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) blubber and polar bear (Ursus maritimus) liver and fat from several areas throughout the Canadian north and compared to mean PCB and HCB levels in the same samples. All seal samples, and all but one polar bear sample, had detectable 2,3,7,8-TCDD at concentrations ranging from 2 to 37 ng/kg, but TCDD was not found in beluga blubber (< 2 ng/kg). All seal samples and one of three beluga samples contained 2,3,7,8-TCDF at levels of 2 to 7 ng/kg, but TCDF was not found in any bear sample. TCDF must therefore be cleared rapidly by polar bears. No other PCDF congeners were found at detection limits of 4 to 8 ng/kg. OCDD concentrations in seal blubber and polar bear samples ranged from not detected (< 8 ng/kg) to 43 ng/kg. No apparent biomagnification of TCDD, OCDD or TCDF occurred from seal to bear fat, similar to previous findings for DDT, and unlike SigmaPCBs and HCB which biomagnified 6- to 17-fold. Highest concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and OCDD in seals and bears were found in the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and lowest were found in Hudson Bay, the reverse of PCB concentration distribution. The reason for higher levels of TCDD and OCDD in the Arctic than in the sub-Arctic is suggested to be trans-polar movement of aerosols with combustion-related origins in Eurasia. Levels of 2,3,7,8-TCDF were more evenly distributed throughout the North, and were positively correlated with PCB, but not with HCB or 2,3,7,8-TCDD levels in seals.     

Effects of air quality on foliar injury, growth, yield, and quality of muskmelon

An evaluation of the effects of ambient ozone (O3) on muskmelon was conducted with the use of open-top chambers (OTCs). 'Superstar' muskmelons grown in charcoal-filtered (CF) chambers compared to those grown in nonfiltered (NF) chambers showed significant differences in the severity of visible foliar O3 injury. Furthermore, plants grown in NF conditions had significantly less (21.3%) marketable fruit weight and fewer (20.9%) marketable fruit number than those from CF chambers. No differences were found in early biomass production, leaf area, or number of nodes after 3 weeks of exposure to treatment conditions. Ambient O3 did not affect soluble solids content of mature fresh fruit nor foliage fresh weight at final harvest. Results indicate that ambient concentrations of O3 in southwestern Indiana caused significant foliar injury and yield loss to muskmelons.