The contemporary cement cycle of the United States

A country-level stock and flow model for cement, an important construction material, was developed based on a material flow analysis framework. Using this model, the contemporary cement cycle of the United States was constructed by analyzing production, import, and export data for different stages of the cement cycle. The United States currently supplies approximately 80% of its cement consumption through domestic production and the rest is imported. The average annual net addition of in-use new cement stock over the period 2000–2004 was approximately 83 million metric tons and amounts to 2.3 tons per capita of concrete. Nonfuel carbon dioxide emissions (42 million metric tons per year) from the calcination phase of cement manufacture account for 62% of the total 68 million tons per year of cement production residues. The end-of-life cement discards are estimated to be 33 million metric tons per year, of which between 30% and 80% is recycled. A significant portion of the infrastructure in the United States is reaching the end of its useful life and will need to be replaced or rehabilitated; this could require far more cement than might be expected from economic forecasts of demand for cement.     

Use of n-fold cross-validation to evaluate three methods to calculate heavy truck annual average daily traffic and vehicle miles traveled

Reliable estimates of heavy-truck volumes in the United States are important in a number of transportation applications including pavement design and management, traffic safety, and traffic operations. Additionally, because heavy vehicles emit pollutants at much higher rates than passenger vehicles, reliable volume estimates are critical to computing accurate inventories of on-road emissions. Accurate baseline inventories are also necessary to forecast future scenarios. The research presented in this paper evaluated three different methods commonly used by transportation agencies to estimate annual average daily traffic (AADT), which is used to determine vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Traffic data from continuous count stations provided by the Iowa Department of Transportation were used to estimate AADT for single-unit and multiunit trucks for rural freeways and rural primary highways using the three methods. The first method developed general expansion factors, which apply to all vehicles. AADT, representing all vehicles, was estimated for short-term counts and was multiplied by statewide average truck volumes for the corresponding roadway type to obtain AADT for each truck category. The second method also developed general expansion factors and AADT estimates. Truck AADT for the second method was calculated by multiplying the general AADT by truck volumes from the short-term counts. The third method developed expansion factors specific to each truck group. AADT estimates for each truck group were estimated from short-term counts using corresponding expansion factors. Accuracy of the three methods was determined by comparing actual AADT from count station data to estimates from the three methods. Accuracy of the three methods was compared using n-fold cross-validation. Mean squared error of prediction was used to estimate the difference between estimated and actual AADT. Prediction error was lowest for the method that developed separate expansion factors for trucks. Implications for emissions estimation using the different methods are also discussed.     

Assessment of sediment contamination in Casco Bay, Maine, USA

The current status of contaminant concentrations in Casco Bay, decadal trends of these contaminants and changes in their geographical distribution are assessed using sediment samples collected approximately 10 years apart. In general, regulated contaminants appeared to be decreasing in concentration. Total PAH and dioxins/furans concentrations did not significantly change over this period. Total organochlorine pesticides, 4,4-DDE, 4,4-DDD, total DDT, PCB, tributyltin and total butyltin decreased in concentration. Trace element concentrations in sediments decreased at the majority of the sampling sites for chromium, nickel, and selenium while arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, silver, and zinc remained relatively constant. None of the contaminants measured has increased by more than a factor of 2. Selected sites located in the Inner Bay, where concentrations are higher and new inputs were more likely, showed increased concentrations of contaminants. Most contaminants were not found at concentrations expected to adversely affect sediment biota based on ERL/ERM guidelines.     

Entry Deterrence and Signaling in a Nonrenewable Resource Model

We analyze a nonrenewable resource model in which an incumbent firm faces potential entry from a rival firm. The incumbent has private information about its stock size but the rival can observe extraction. With observable extraction and unobservable stock, the rival can use extraction as a signal about stock, from which it can infer whether entry is likely to be profitable. We characterize the necessary conditions for pooling and separating perfect Bayesian equilibria in a signaling game of resource extraction and provide examples of each. We show that the incumbent will often prefer pooling to separating even though welfare is higher in separating equilibrium.     

Vegetation response to hydrologic and geomorphic factors in an arid region of the Baja California Peninsula

Remotely sensed imageries were used to analyze the response of desert vegetation to physiographic factors and accumulated precipitation in drier and wetter years within a region of >16,500 km² sampled with 5,000 random pixels of 30 m. Vegetation development was indexed by the annual maximum values for greenness (SAVI) and canopy water content (NDII). Precipitation was interpolated from the 0.25° grid of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission satellite-based estimates, showing a regional average of ～55 mm in the wetter year. The vegetation indices were only weakly related to total precipitation, often in a negative sense. Terrain factors that most often affected the vegetation indices, in multiple regression models, were Topographic Wetness Index, elevation, and slope gradient; these often had different signs for SAVI and for NDII. Models for NDII on intrusive igneous rocks gave better results than on extrusive igneous rocks. The strongest patterns in vegetation development were the contrast among Pacific coast, Cordillera, and Gulf coast subregions and the generally stronger results for NDII than SAVI.     

Predictive model for chloroform during disinfection of water for consumption,city of Montevideo

The objective of this study was to predict chloroform formation resulting from the process of disinfecting water, particularly trihalomethane which is most frequently produced. A statistical model was used which included repeated measurements of water parameters used for monitoring water quality at 51 sites covering the municipal water system of Montevideo. Samples were taken considering different seasons from June 2009 to July 2011 in Montevideo. Total samples (n?=?330) were analytically studied using the headspace-gas chromatography method coupled with mass spectrometry. Chloroform was the dependent variable and the covariables were pH, temperature, free chlorine, and total chlorine. A Tobit analysis with an unstructured correlation matrix was performed, and a significant interaction was found between pH and free chlorine for the prediction of chloroform formation. We concluded that parameters for the continuous control of water quality for consumption can be used to predict the levels of chloroform that may be present. Given the large measurement to variability found in the repeated measurements, the use of averages that include more than one season is not recommended to determine the degree of compliance with acceptable levels established by norms.     

Utilizing pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR to characterize fungal populations among house dust samples

Molecular techniques are an alternative to culturing and counting methods in quantifying indoor fungal contamination. Pyrosequencing offers the possibility of identifying unexpected indoor fungi. In this study, 50 house dust samples were collected from homes in the Yakima Valley, WA. Each sample was analyzed by quantitative PCR (QPCR) for 36 common fungi and by fungal tag-encoded flexible (FLX) amplicon pyrosequencing (fTEFAP) for these and additional fungi. Only 24 of the samples yielded amplified results using fTEFAP but QPCR successfully amplified all 50 samples. Over 450 fungal species were detected by fTEFAP but most were rare. Twenty-two fungi were found by fTEFAP to occur with at least an average of ≥0.5% relative occurrence. Many of these fungi seem to be associated with plants, soil or human skin. Combining fTEFAP and QPCR can enhance studies of fungal contamination in homes.     

Emergency department visits by pediatric patients sustained as a passenger on a motorcycle

Objective: Currently only 5 out of the 50 states in the United States have laws restricting the age of passengers permitted to ride on a motorcycle. This study sought to characterize the visits by patients under the age of 16 to U.S. emergency departments (EDs) for injuries sustained as a passenger on a motorcycle.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, data were obtained from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) for the years 2006 to 2011. Pediatric patients who were passengers on a motorcycle that was involved in a crash were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) External Cause of Injury codes. We also examined gender, age, disposition, regional differences, common injuries, and charges.

Results: Between 2006 and 2011 there were an estimated 9,689 visits to U.S. EDs by patients under the age of 16 who were passengers on a motorcycle involved in a crash. The overall average patient age was 9.4 years, and they were predominately male (54.5%). The majority (85%) of these patients were treated and released. The average charges for discharged patients were $2,116.50 and amounted to roughly $17,500,000 during the 6 years. The average cost for admission was $51,446 per patient and totaled over $54 million. The most common primary injuries included superficial contusions; sprains and strains; upper limb fractures; open wounds of head, neck, and trunk; and intracranial injuries.

Conclusion: Although there were only about 9,700 visits to U.S. EDs for motorcycle crashes involving passengers less than 16 years old for 2006 to 2011, the total cost of visits that resulted in either ED discharge or hospital admission amounted to over $71 million.     

Research priorities for managing the impacts and dependencies of business upon food,energy, water and the environment

Delivering access to sufficient food, energy and water resources to ensure human wellbeing is a major concern for governments worldwide. However, it is crucial to account for the ‘nexus’ of interactions between these natural resources and the consequent implications for human wellbeing. The private sector has a critical role in driving positive change towards more sustainable nexus management and could reap considerable benefits from collaboration with researchers to devise solutions to some of the foremost sustainability challenges of today. Yet opportunities are missed because the private sector is rarely involved in the formulation of deliverable research priorities. We convened senior research scientists and influential business leaders to collaboratively identify the top forty questions that, if answered, would best help companies understand and manage their food-energy-water-environment nexus dependencies and impacts. Codification of the top order nexus themes highlighted research priorities around development of pragmatic yet credible tools that allow businesses to incorporate nexus interactions into their decision-making; demonstration of the business case for more sustainable nexus management; identification of the most effective levers for behaviour change; and understanding incentives or circumstances that allow individuals and businesses to take a leadership stance. Greater investment in the complex but productive relations between the private sector and research community will create deeper and more meaningful collaboration and cooperation.