Application of statistical modeling to optimize a coastal water quality monitoring program

The long-term water quality monitoring program implemented by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority in 1992 is extensive and has provide substantial understanding of the seasonality of the waters in both Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay and the response to improvements in effluent quality and offshore transfer of the effluent in September 2000. The monitoring program was designed with limited knowledge of spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends within the system. This led to an extensive spatial and temporal sampling program. The data through 2003 showed high correlation within physical parameters measured (e.g., salinity, dissolved oxygen) and in biological measures such as chlorophyll fluorescence. To address the potential sampling redundancies in the measurement program, an assessment of the impact of reduced levels of monitoring on the ability to make water quality decisions was completed. The optimization was conducted by applying statistical models that took into account whether there was evidence of a seasonal pattern in the data. The optimization used model survey average readings to identify temporal fixed effects, model survey-average-corrected individual station readings to identify spatial fixed effects, corrected the individual station readings for temporal and spatial fixed effects and derived a correlation model for the corrected data, and applied the correlation model to characterize the correlation of annual average readings from reduced monitoring programs with true parameter levels. Reductions in the number of sampling stations were found less detrimental to the quality of the data for annual decision-making than reductions in the number of surveys per year, although there is less of a difference in this regard for dissolved oxygen than there is for chlorophyll. The analysis led to recommendations for a substantially lower monitoring effort with minimal loss of information. The recommendation supported an annual budget savings of approximately $183,000. Most of the savings was from fewer surveys as approximately $21,000 came from the reduction in the number of stations monitored from 21 to 7 and associated laboratory analytical costs.     

The response of hydrophobic organics and potential toxicity in streams to urbanization of watersheds in six metropolitan areas of the United States

Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were deployed in streams along a gradient of urban land-use intensity in and around six metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; and Denver-Fort Collins, Colorado, in 2003; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; and Portland, Oregon, in 2004 to examine relations between percent urban land cover in watersheds and the occurrence, concentrations, and potential toxicity of hydrophobic compounds. Of the 142 endpoints measured in SPMD dialysates, 30 were significantly (alpha = 0.05) related to the percent of urban land cover in the watersheds in at least one metropolitan area. These 30 endpoints included the aggregated measures of the total number of compounds detected and relative toxicity (Microtox(R) and P450RGS assays), in addition to the concentrations of 27 individual hydrophobic compounds. The number of compounds detected, P450RGS assay values, and the concentrations of pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were significantly related to percent urban land cover in all six metropolitan areas. Pentachloroanisole, the most frequently detected compound, was significantly related to urban land cover in all metropolitan areas except Dallas-Fort Worth. Petrogenic PAHs and dibenzofurans were positively related to percent urban land cover in Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, Denver, and Milwaukee-Green Bay. Results for other endpoints were much more variable. The number of endpoints significantly related to urban land cover ranged from 6 in Portland to 21 Raleigh-Durham. Based on differences in the number and suite of endpoints related to urban intensity, these results provide evidence of differences in factors governing source strength, transport, and/or fate of hydrophobic compounds in the six metropolitan areas studied. The most consistent and significant results were that bioavailable, aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists increase in streams as basins become urbanized. Potential toxicity mediated by this metabolic pathway is indicated as an important factor in the response of aquatic biota to urbanization.     

Serial batch leaching procedure for characterization of coal fly ash

Although many leaching methods have been used for various purposes by research groups, industries, and regulators, there is still a need for a simple but comprehensive approach to leaching coal utilization by-products and other granular materials in order to estimate potential release of heavy metals when these materials are exposed to natural fluids. A serial batch characterization method has been developed at the National Energy Technology Laboratory that can be completed in 2–3 days to serve as a screening tool. The procedure provides an estimate of cumulative metals release under varying pH conditions, and leaching the sample at increasing liquid/solid ratios can indicate the rate at which this process will occur. This method was applied to eight fly ashes, adapted to the acidic or alkaline nature of the ash. The leachates were analyzed for 30 elements. The test was run in quadruplicate, and the relative standard deviation (RSD) was used as a measure of method reproducibility. RSD values are between 0.02 and 0.70, with the majority of the RSD values less than 0.3. The serial batch leaching procedure was developed as a simple, relatively quick, yet comprehensive method of estimating the risk of heavy metal release from fly ash when it is exposed to natural fluids, such as acid rain or groundwater. Tests on a random selection of coal fly ashes have shown it to be a reasonably precise method for estimating the availability and long-term release of cations from fly ash.     

LC-MS-MS analysis and occurrence of octyl- and nonylphenol, their ethoxylates and their carboxylates in Belgian and Italian textile industry, waste water treatment plant effluents and surface waters

Alkylphenols (APs), alkylphenol ethoxylates (APEOs), ethoxycarboxylate metabolites (APECs) and bisphenol A were determined in surface water using solid-phase extraction (SPE) followed by triple-quadrupole LC-MS-MS. APs were separated by LC from APECs using an acetonitrile-water-gradient without the addition of any buffer. Nonylphenol ethoxycarboxylates (NPECs) interfere in the detection of nonylphenols (NPs) when using an acidic mobile phase, because they produce the same MS-MS fragment ions (219>133 and 147). 4n-NP shows the characteristic transition 219>106; it is well suited as internal standard. Nonylphenol ethoxylates NPE(n)Os (n=1-17) were analysed separately in a second run by positive ionization using an ammonium acetate mobile phase. Textile industry discharges, the corresponding wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents and the receiving rivers in Belgium and Italy were analysed. Among the substances investigated, NPE1C and NPE2O exhibited the highest concentrations in the water samples, up to 4.5 microg l(-1) NPE1C in a WWTP effluent and 3.6 microg l(-1) NPE2O in a river. The highest NP levels were found in the receiving rivers (max. 2.5 microg l(-1)). The predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for NP of 0.33 microg l(-1) for water species was frequently exceeded in the surface waters investigated, suggesting potential adverse effects to the aquatic environment.     

Distribution and transport of coal tar-derived PAHs in fine-grained residuum

We investigated the distribution and transport of coal tar-derived polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in fine-grained residuum and alluvial floodplain deposits that underlie a former manufactured gas plant. All 16 USEPA priority pollutant PAHs are present at this site and have penetrated the entire 4-5m thickness of clayey sediments, which unconformably overly limestone bedrock. Concentrations of less hydrophobic PAHs (e.g., naphthalene, 0.011-384mg kg(-1)) were about 10 times higher than those of highly hydrophobic PAHs (e.g., benzo[g,h,i]perylene -0.002 to 56.03mgkg(-1)). Microscopic examination of thin-sections of the clay-rich sediments showed that fractures and rootholes, which can act as pathways for flow, occur throughout the profiles. Tarry residue was found coating some fractures and rootholes, indicating that coal tar was, in some cases, able to penetrate as an immiscible phase. However, in the vast majority of samples in which PAHs were detected, there was no detectable tar residue, suggesting that much of the transport occurred in the dissolved phase. Examination of thin-sections with an epifluorescent microscope indicated that PAHs, which fluoresce brightly when exposed to UV light, are distributed throughout the soil matrix, rather than being confined to fractures and rootholes. The widespread distribution of PAHs is most likely due to diffusion-controlled exchange between the fast-flow pathways in the fractures and rootholes and the relatively immobile water in the fine-grained matrix. This implies that fractures and rootholes can play a major role in controlling transport of highly hydrophobic compounds in fine-grained sediments, which would otherwise act as barriers to contaminant migration.     

Cognitive failures, driving errors and driving accidents

INTRODUCTION: The impact of a driver's cognitive capability on traffic safety has not been adequately studied. This study examined the relationship between cognitive failures, driving errors and accident data. METHOD: Professional drivers from Iran (160 males, ages 18-65) participated in this study. The cognitive failures questionnaire (CFQ) and the driver error questionnaire were administered. The participants were also asked other questions about personal driving information. A principal component analysis with varimax rotation was performed to determine the factor structure of the CFQ. Poisson regression models were developed to predict driving errors and accidents from total CFQ scores and the extracted factors. RESULTS: Total CFQ scores were associated with driving error rates, but not with accidents. However, the 2 extracted factors suggested an increased effect on accidents and were strongly associated with driving errors. DISCUSSION: Although the CFQ was not able to predict driving accidents, it could be used to identify drivers susceptible to driving errors. Further development of a driving-oriented cognitive failure scale is recommended to help identify error prone drivers. Such a scale may be beneficial to licensing authorities or for developing driver selection and training procedures for organizations.     

The contingent effect of constructive confrontation on the relationship between shared mental models and decision quality

Work teams are being utilized more frequently to give organizations access to the broader knowledge and skill base of employees, as well as to provide for adaptive, efficient decision‐making. In teams, we argue that constructive confrontation norms are an important contingency variable in the relationship between mental model similarity and decision quality. Mental model similarity helps team members understand one another's perspectives and reduces the likelihood of conflict. Accordingly, mental model similarity improves decision quality. When strong norms of constructive confrontation are in place, however, teams are in a better position to reap the benefits of conflict (greater diversity of inputs) without experiencing its negative consequences. Thus, when constructive confrontation norms are strong, less mental model similarity (i.e., more diversity of perspectives) is likely to improve decision quality. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Levels and trends of HBCD and BDEs in the European and Asian environments, with some information for other BFRs

In this paper, we review recent data for brominated flame retardants (particularly BDEs, HBCD and TBBP-A) in samples from the European and Asian environments, including recent temporal trend studies. Research is active and we cite over 100 studies published during 2005-2007. Environmental compartments studied comprise the atmosphere, indoor and outdoor air, sewage sludges, soils and sediments and a variety of biological samples and food chains. Findings include that the lack of reference materials for use in analytical quality control and method validation identified earlier has been addressed, and certified concentrations are now available for a number of BDE congeners in six pre-existing and one new reference materials. BDE209 was certified in three samples of indoor dust. The analysis of BDE209 remains problematic, but suitable methods for its determination are available and need to be applied. The contamination of indoor environments with BFRs has been recognised as representing a significant uptake pathway, particularly via dust. Additional data for TBBP-A are needed from areas, where it is produced and used, primarily Asia, as the worst-case scenario. As a reactive flame retardant it is less likely to leach from finished products. Also, issues regarding the importance of e-waste recycling as a source of BFRs to the local populations and the local environment require urgent study, certainly in China and possibly elsewhere. Generally, trends show a levelling in concentrations of BDEs and increases in concentrations of HBCD wherever determined and BDE209 in Asia.     

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.     

Seasonal variations of monocarbonyl and dicarbonyl in urban and sub-urban sites of Xi’an,China

Seventeen airborne carbonyls including monocarbonyls and dicarbonyls were determined in urban and sub-urban sites of Xi’an, China in three seasons in 2010. In winter, acetone was the most abundant carbonyl in the urban site due to usage of organic solvents in constructions and laboratories and its slower atmospheric removal mechanisms by photolysis and reaction with hydroxyl radical than those of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde. In the sub-urban site, acetaldehyde was the most abundant carbonyl, followed by formaldehyde and acetone. During summer, however, formaldehyde was the most dominant carbonyl in both sites. The photooxidations of a wide range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) yielded much more formaldehyde than other carbonyls under high solar radiation and temperature. In the urban site, the average concentrations of dicarbonyls (i.e., glyoxal and methyglyoxal) in spring and summer were higher than that in winter. Transformation of aromatic VOCs emitted from fuel evaporation leads to the formation of 1,2-dicarbonyls. A reverse trend was observed in sub-urban sites, as explained by the relatively low abundances and accumulations of VOC precursors in the rural atmosphere during warm seasons. Moreover, cumulative cancer risk based on measured outdoor carbonyls (formaldehyde and acetaldehyde) in Xi’an Jiaotong University and Heihe was estimated (8.82?×?10^?5 and 4.96?×?10^?5, respectively). This study provides a clear map on the abundances of carbonyls and their source interpretation in the largest and the most economic city in Northwestern China.