Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change

Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.     

Tropical amphibians in shifting thermal landscapes under land‐use and climate change

Land‐cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CT_max). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land‐cover types and CT_max of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat‐specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CT_max exceeded their habitat‐specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land‐cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land‐cover and climate‐change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business‐as‐usual land‐cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7‐ to 4.5‐fold greater losses in TSH area than land‐cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest‐restricted species had lower mean CT_max than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land‐cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species.     

Using a choice experiment and birder preferences to guide bird‐conservation funding

Conservation of biodiversity, including birds, continues to challenge natural‐area managers. Stated‐preference methods (e.g., choice experiment [CE]) are increasingly used to provide data for valuation of natural ecosystems. We used a CE to calculate birders’ willingness to pay for different levels of bioecological attributes (threatened species, endemic species, and diversity) of birding sites with hypothetical entry fees. The CE was delivered at popular birding and avitourism sites in Australia and the United Kingdom. Latent‐class modeling results revealed heterogeneous preferences among birders and correspondingly variable willingness to pay. Four clear groups were apparent: quantity‐driven birders, special‐birds seekers, confused respondents, and price‐is‐no‐object birders. Quantity‐driven birders were attracted to sites that deliver high levels of diversity and endemic species for which they were willing to pay $135 and $66 to visit, respectively, above what they were willing to pay to visit a site with low levels of diversity and few endemic and threatened species . Special‐bird seekers valued threatened species and high levels of endemic species most (willingness to pay $45 and $46, respectively). Confused respondents’ preferences were difficult to determine, but they were the most sensitive to the hypothetical entry fees, unlike the price‐is‐no‐object birders, who were not at all sensitive to cost. Our findings demonstrate that birders are amenable to paying for their preferred birding experience. These payments could provide an alternative source of funding in some avitourism sites on both public and private land. Such alternative revenue streams should be explored and given full consideration in increasingly competitive conservation‐financing environments.     

Stage‐Discharge Relationships for U‐, A‐, and W‐Weirs in Un‐submerged Flow Conditions1

Thornton, Christopher I., Anthony M. Meneghetti, Kent Collins, Steven R. Abt, and S. Michael Scurlock, 2011. Stage‐Discharge Relationships for U‐, A‐, and W‐Weirs in Un‐submerged Flow Conditions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):169‐178. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00501.x Abstract: Instream rock weirs are routinely placed into stream systems to provide grade control, reduce streambank erosion, provide energy dissipation, and allow fish passage. However, design and performance criteria for site specific applications are often anecdotal or qualitative in nature, and based upon the experience of the design team. A study was conducted to develop generic state‐discharge relationships for U‐, A‐, and W‐weirs. A laboratory testing program was performed in which scaled, near‐prototype U‐, A‐, and W‐rock weir structures were constructed in 11 configurations. Each configuration encompassed a unique weir shape, bed material, and/or bed slope. Thirty‐one tests were conducted in which each structure was subjected to a sequence of predetermined discharges that minimally included the equivalent of 1/3 bankfull, 2/3 bankfull, and bankfull conditions. All tests were performed in subcritical, un‐submerged flow conditions. Stage‐discharge relationships were developed using multivariant, power regression techniques for each of the U‐, A‐, and W‐rock weirs as a function of the effective weir length, flow depth, mean weir height, rock size, and discharge coefficient. Unique coefficient expressions were developed for each weir shape, and a single discharge coefficient was proposed applicable to the weirs for determining the channel stage‐discharge rating.     

Biogeochemistry of a temperate forest nitrogen gradient

Wide natural gradients of soil nitrogen (N) can be used to examine fundamental relationships between plant-soil-microbial N cycling and hydrologic N loss, and to test N-saturation theory as a general framework for understanding ecosystem N dynamics. We characterized plant production, N uptake and return in litterfall, soil gross and net N mineralization rates, and hydrologic N losses of nine Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests across a wide soil N gradient in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Surface mineral soil N (0-10 cm) ranged nearly three-fold from 0.29% to 0.78% N, and in contrast to predictions of N-saturation theory, was linearly related to 10-fold variation in net N mineralization, from 8 to 82 kg N.ha(-1) x yr(-1). Net N mineralization was unrelated to soil C:N, soil texture, precipitation, and temperature differences among sites. Net nitrification was negatively related to soil pH, and accounted for <20% of net N mineralization at low-N sites, increasing to 85-100% of net N mineralization at intermediate- and high-N sites. The ratio of net: gross N mineralization and nitrification increased along the gradient, indicating progressive saturation of microbial N demands at high soil N. Aboveground N uptake by plants increased asymptotically with net N mineralization to a peak of approximately 35 kg N.ha(-1) x yr(-1). Aboveground net primary production per unit net N mineralization varied inversely with soil N, suggesting progressive saturation of plant N demands at high soil N. Hydrologic N losses were dominated by dissolved organic N at low-N sites, with increased nitrate loss causing a shift to dominance by nitrate at high-N sites, particularly where net nitrification exceeded plant N demands. With the exception of N mineralization patterns, our results broadly support the application of the N-saturation model developed from studies of anthropogenic N deposition to understand N cycling and saturation of plant and microbial sinks along natural soil N gradients. This convergence of behavior in unpolluted and polluted forest N cycles suggests that where future reductions in deposition to polluted sites do occur, symptoms of N saturation are most likely to persist where soil N content remains elevated.     

Aggregations and offshore movements as indicators of spawning activity of bonefish (Albula vulpes) in The Bahamas

To identify the timing and location of spawning activity for bonefish (Albula spp.) in the Bahamian archipelago, we used an acoustic telemetry array spanning 44?km² of shallow tidal creeks, flats, and adjacent deeper coastal waters near Cape Eleuthera. In two successive years, we surgically implanted transmitters in male and female bonefish (n?=?60) and examined their movement patterns within the array. Eight bonefish surgically implanted with transmitters as part of an earlier study were also tracked. In 2009, the telemetry information was complemented with snorkeling observations, underwater video, and manual tracking of the same acoustically tagged fish, as well as fish (n?=?3) gastrically implanted with continuous transmitters. During a period of 4?C7?days spanning the full and new moons, primarily between October and May, bonefish moved from their typical shallow flats and aggregated at sites in close proximity to the deep water drop-off of the Exuma Sound. Localized movements of the large schools of bonefish (often?>1,000 fish) at these presumptive pre-spawning aggregation sites included brief trips (<8?h) just after sunset until just prior to sunrise to the abyssal wall at the edge of the Exuma Sound (i.e.,?>1,000?m depth). Tagged bonefish detected at these aggregation sites were subsequently detected back in the tidal creeks and coastal flats shortly after new and full moons and remained at these more typical shallow sites (i.e.,?<2?m depth). Although we did not directly observe spawning events, we did observe ventral nudging and porpoising behaviors, which are potentially associated with courtship. Timing of the observed movements and possible courtship behaviors was coincident with periods when gametes were well developed. Collectively, our study provides the first objective evidence suggesting that the aggregation and seasonal migration of bonefish to deep shelf environments during certain moon phases is for spawning.     

Probability sampling of stony coral populations in the Florida Keys

Principles of probability survey design were applied to guide large-scale sampling of populations of stony corals and associated benthic taxa in the Florida Keys coral reef ecosystem. The survey employed a two-stage stratified random sampling design that partitioned the 251-km(2) domain by reef habitat types, geographic regions, and management zones. Estimates of the coefficient of variation (ratio of standard error to the mean) for stony coral population density and abundance ranged from 7% to 12% for four of six principal species. These levels of survey precision are among the highest reported for comparable surveys of marine species. Relatively precise estimates were also obtained for octocoral density, sponge frequency of occurrence, and benthic cover of algae and invertebrates. Probabilistic survey design techniques provided a robust framework for estimating population-level metrics and optimizing sampling efficiency.     

Improving PHA/LOPA by consistent consequence severity estimation

Most risk analysis methods rely on a qualitative judgment of consequence severity, regardless of the analysis rigor applied to the estimation of hazardous event frequency. Since the risk analysis is dependent on the estimated frequency and consequence severity of the hazardous event, the error associated with the consequence severity estimate directly impacts the estimated risk and ultimately the risk reduction requirements. Overstatement of the consequence severity creates excessive risk reduction requirements. Understatement results in inadequate risk reduction.Consistency in the consequence severity estimate can be substantially improved by implementing consequence estimation tools that assist PHA/LOPA team members in understanding the flammability, explosivity, or toxicity of process chemical releases. This paper provides justification for developing semi-quantitative look-up tables to support the team assessment of consequence severity. Just as the frequency and risk reduction tables have greatly improved consistency in the estimate of the hazardous event frequency, consequence severity tables can significantly increase confidence in the severity estimate.     

Modeling the Fate and Transport of Plunging Inflows to Onondaga Lake

The transport and fate of two plunging tributaries, Onondaga and Ninemile Creeks, in Onondaga Lake, New York, are quantified based on application of hydrodynamic/transport models. Short‐term transport is simulated with a three‐dimensional Estuary Lake and Coastal Ocean Model (ELCOM), while the longer term fate is represented by a previously validated one‐dimensional model (UFILS4). The validation of ELCOM for the vertical distribution of tributary inflow into the lake's water column is demonstrated for four dye tracer experiments. The models are applied for three years to represent the dynamics of transport and fate for the two tributaries, with ELCOM predictions serving as input for UFILS4. The models together quantify the distribution of these inflows between the upper mixed layer (UML) and stratified depths, and the subsequent transport from stratified depths to the UML by vertical mixing. Substantial short‐term variations are predicted for both tributaries in response to variability in hydrology and weather. Increased inflow to the UML is predicted for high runoff periods. The fraction of Ninemile Creek's inflow directly entering the UML is predicted to be 50% greater than for Onondaga Creek due to Ninemile's lower negative buoyancy. The plunging phenomenon has important water quality implications, by reducing the effective loading to the UML, particularly for constituents with large rates of loss/transformation relative to the rate of vertical transport from stratified depths.