A framework for evaluating regional-scale numerical photochemical modeling systems

This paper discusses the need for critically evaluating regional-scale (~200–2,000 km) three-dimensional numerical photochemical air quality modeling systems to establish a model’s credibility in simulating the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations. Because of limitations of currently used approaches for evaluating regional air quality models, a framework for model evaluation is introduced here for determining the suitability of a modeling system for a given application, distinguishing the performance between different models through confidence-testing of model results, guiding model development and analyzing the impacts of regulatory policy options. The framework identifies operational, diagnostic, dynamic, and probabilistic types of model evaluation. Operational evaluation techniques include statistical and graphical analyses aimed at determining whether model estimates are in agreement with the observations in an overall sense. Diagnostic evaluation focuses on process-oriented analyses to determine whether the individual processes and components of the model system are working correctly, both independently and in combination. Dynamic evaluation assesses the ability of the air quality model to simulate changes in air quality stemming from changes in source emissions and/or meteorology, the principal forces that drive the air quality model. Probabilistic evaluation attempts to assess the confidence that can be placed in model predictions using techniques such as ensemble modeling and Bayesian model averaging. The advantages of these types of model evaluation approaches are discussed in this paper.     

Geographic information system based manure application plan

A geographic information system (GIS) based manure application plan has been developed for the site-specific application of animal waste to agricultural fields in the Westbrook sub-catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin, south-east Queensland, Australia. Sites suitable for animal waste application were identified using a GIS based weighted linear combination (WLC) model. The degree of land suitability for animal waste application was determined using a range of social, economic, environmental, and agricultural factors. As eutrophication and toxic blue-green algae blooms are a known problem in the catchment, the manure application rates were limited to the rate of crop phosphorus removal. Maximum manure application rate was calculated spatially by taking the crop nutrient (P2O5) requirement and the manure nutrient (P2O5) content into account. The environmental suitability of the fields receiving animal waste was considered in prescribing the final application rate of solid and liquid manures generated by local animal production facilities. The degree of site suitability of the agricultural fields was also used to suggest manure management practices to minimise the socio-environmental risks and increase the nutrient use efficiency of the applied manure. The amount of ammonium nitrogen (NH4-N) that would be added to the soil by satisfying the P2O5 requirement using manure sources was also calculated and an applied NH4-N map was created. This map could be used to assist farmers identify additional nitrogen requirements after manure application.     

Carrying capacity as "Informed Judgment": the values of science and the science of values

Contemporary park and wilderness carrying capacity frameworks rely on formulation of standards of quality, which are defined as minimum acceptable resource and social conditions. Formulation of standards of quality involves elements of both science and values, and both of these elements must be integrated into informed judgments on the part of park and wilderness managers. That is, managers must ultimately make value-based judgments about the maximum acceptable level of visitor-caused impacts to the resource base and the quality of the visitor experience. However, such judgments should be as informed as possible by scientific data on the relationships between visitor use and resulting impacts and the degree to which park and wilderness visitors and other interest groups judge such impacts to be acceptable. Such information represents the “values of science” to managing carrying capacity in parks and wilderness. A growing body of literature has begun to address the corresponding “science of values,” and how this type of information might be integrated in park and wilderness management. Visitor-based research has employed normative theory and techniques to explore the acceptability of a range of resource and social impacts related to visitor use, and findings from these studies are being integrated into a body of knowledge and applied in management decision-making. Conceptual and methodological extensions of the normative approach are currently being explored in a variety of park and wilderness contexts, and new theoretical and empirical approaches are being adapted to address trade-offs inherent in carrying capacity. In these ways, the science of values is progressing to meet the opportunities and challenges of the values of science to park and wilderness management. The concept of carrying capacity, along with the theoretical and methodological approaches described in this paper, can be extended to a large number of natural resource and environmental issues.     

Using continuous PM2.5 monitoring data to report an air quality index

As stated in 40 CFR 58, Appendix G (2000), statistical linear regression models can be applied to relate PM2.5 continuous monitoring (CM) measurements with federal reference method (FRM) measurements, collocated or otherwise, for the purpose of reporting the air quality index (AQI). The CM measurements can then be transformed via the model to remove any bias relative to FRM measurements. The resulting FRM-like modeled measurements may be used to provide more timely reporting of a metropolitan statistical area's (MSA's) AQI. Of considerable importance is the quality of the model used to relate the CM and FRM measurements. The use of a poor model could result in misleading AQI reporting in the form of incorrectly claiming either good or bad air quality. This paper describes a measure of adequacy for deciding whether a statistical linear regression model that relates FRM and continuous PM2.5 measurements is sufficient for use in AQI reporting. The approach is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) data quality objectives (DQO) process, a seven-step strategic planning approach to determine the most appropriate data type, quality, quantity, and synthesis for a given activity. The chosen measure of model adequacy is r2, the square of the correlation coefficient between FRM measurements and their modeled counterparts. The paper concludes by developing regression models that meet this desired level of adequacy for the MSAs of Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point, NC; and Davenport/Moline/Rock Island, IA/IL. In both cases, a log transformation of the data appeared most appropriate. For the data from the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point MSA, a simple linear regression model of the FRM and CM measurements had an r2 of 0.96, based on 227 paired observations. For the data from the Davenport/Moline/Rock Island MSA, due to seasonal differences between CM and FRM measurements, the simple linear regression model had to be expanded to include a temperature dependency, resulting in an r2 of 0.86, based on 214 paired observations.     

Airborne 131I at a background monitoring site

As part of an environmental surveillance program, measurements of 131I in samples of atmospheric aerosols were determined in week-long collection periods at 0.3 km and 1.5 km from a municipal-sewage sludge incinerator located in Albany, New York. During an 11-month period when the sampler was temporarily located near the incinerator, sampling canisters of activated charcoal nearly always contained detectable airborne 131I activity (range of 0.1-6.0 mBq m(-3)). In contrast, remote concentrations where the sample was normally located were near or below analytical detection limits, both before and after the 11-month relocation. Activities of wet and dry fallout at both locations were below detection limits. The source of 131I in the aerosols associated with the sewage sludge was likely excreta from patients following medical treatments at local hospitals.     

Field water balance of landfill final covers

Landfill covers are critical to waste containment, yet field performance of specific cover designs has not been well documented and seldom been compared in side-by-side testing. A study was conducted to assess the ability of landfill final covers to control percolation into underlying waste. Conventional covers employing resistive barriers as well as alternative covers relying on water-storage principles were monitored in large (10 x 20 m), instrumented drainage lysimeters over a range of climates at 11 field sites in the United States. Surface runoff was a small fraction of the water balance (0-10%, 4% on average) and was nearly insensitive to the cover slope, cover design, or climate. Lateral drainage from internal drainage layers was also a small fraction of the water balance (0-5.0%, 2.0% on average). Average percolation rates for the conventional covers with composite barriers (geomembrane over fine soil) typically were less than 12 mm/yr (1.4% of precipitation) at humid locations and 1.5 mm/yr (0.4% of precipitation) at arid, semiarid, and subhumid locations. Average percolation rates for conventional covers with soil barriers in humid climates were between 52 and 195 mm/yr (6-17% of precipitation), probably due to preferential flow through defects in the soil barrier. Average percolation rates for alternative covers ranged between 33 and 160 mm/yr (6 and 18% of precipitation) in humid climates and generally less than 2.2 mm/yr (0.4% of precipitation) in arid, semiarid, and subhumid climates. One-half (five) of the alternative covers in arid, semiarid, and subhumid climates transmitted less than 0.1 mm of percolation, but two transmitted much more percolation (26.8 and 52 mm) than anticipated during design. The data collected support conclusions from other studies that detailed, site-specific design procedures are very important for successful performance of alternative landfill covers.     

A better method for standardizing vitellogenin content of fish tissues

Vitellogenin (vtg) concentrations were measured in plasma and liver samples from 12 hybrid Tilapia oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus to compare concentrations in these tissues. The results were calculated under two different normalizations: volume per gram of sample used (similar to normalization usually published in the literature and typically used for ELISA) and volume per total protein (similar to normalization used in polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis; PAGE). It was observed that the normalization procedure used in PAGE (per gram total protein) minimized the method detection limit by about 1000 and 2500 times in plasma and liver respectively, compared to the normalization usually reported in the literature. It was also observed that normalizing per gram total protein makes it possible to eliminate a potential problem of accidental dilution of plasma samples during sample collection. Moreover, the normalization on a per gram of total protein makes it possible even to compare results from the two different methods namely PAGE and ELISA. It also allows comparison between different tissues. Using the normalization procedures as used in PAGE (per gram total protein) for liver and the normalization method as reported in literature for ELISA (per volume of sample used), it was observed that liver samples had higher vtg levels (mean: 62 microg vtg/g) compared to the corresponding plasma samples (mean: 0.24 microg vtg/ml). However, when both results were normalized per gram total protein all but one liver sample were lower (62 microg vtg/g) than the corresponding plasma concentrations (mean = 246 microg vtg/g).     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN SELECTED PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND PROCESSES IN CROSS LAKE,NEW YORK1

ABSTRACT: Short-circuiting of the inflow occurs from the Seneca River across the southern portion of Cross Lake, New York. Spatial differences in thermal stratification, transparency and light attenuation, and net sedimentation are documented for the lake. The depth of the epilimnion was generally deeper, and the temperature gradient in the metalimnion was at times lower, at a deep-water location proximate to the short-circuiting zone, than at a position more remote from the inflow. Transparency was generally lower, and light attenuation greater, proximate to the short-circuiting zone, indicating the contribution of attenuating components from the river. The net sedimentation rate in the short-circuiting zone was greater and temporally more irregular than for a deep-water position remote from the river inflow. The spatial differences in the physical characteristics and processes in Cross Lake are attributable to the magnitude and position of the inflow from the Seneca River.     

Effects of Soil Conditions on Survival and Growth of Black Willow Cuttings

Current streambank restoration efforts focus on providing bank stability, enhancing water quality, and improving woody habitat using native vegetation rather than traditional engineering techniques. However, in most cases harsh site conditions limit restoration success. A two-year field study was conducted at Twentymile Creek, in northern Mississippi, investigating edaphic factors governing the survival of black willow (Salix nigra) cuttings used for streambank restoration. Low height growth, above-ground biomass production, and average leaf area were observed in willow cuttings grown in plots subjected to moisture deficits. However, sediment texture emerged as the dominant factor determining willow post growth, health, and survival. Shoot biomass, leaf biomass, and total above-ground biomass were 15-, 10-, and 14-fold greater for large willow cuttings (posts) grown in plots with sandy sediments relative to those grown in plots with similar moisture and soil redox potential but with silt and clay sediments. Average leaf size, average leaf mass and specific leaf area were all lower in fine textured plots. Under moisture conditions present at our sites, coarse-grained sediment (sand) was more conducive to willow growth, biomass production, and survival than were fine-grained sediments (silt/clay). Our results strongly suggest that soil texture and moisture conditions can determine restoration success. Therefore, it is critical that site conditions are factored into the selection of project locations prior to the initiation of willow planting restoration projects.