Welfare states and environmental states: a comparative analysis

A framework is presented for thinking about state intervention in developed capitalist economies in two domains: social policy and environmental policy (and, within that, climate-change policy). Five drivers of welfare state development are identified, the ‘five Is’ of Industrialisation: Interests, Institutions, Ideas/Ideologies, and International Influences. Research applying this framework to the postwar development of welfare states in the OECD is summarised, distinguishing two periods: up to 1980, and from 1980 to 2008. How far this framework can contribute to understanding the rise and differential patterns of environmental governance and intervention across advanced capitalist states since 1970 is explored, before briefly comparing and contrasting the determinants of welfare states and environmental states, identifying common drivers in both domains and regime-specific drivers in each. The same framework is then applied to developments since 2008 and into the near future, sketching two potential configurations and speculating on the conditions for closer, more integrated ‘eco-welfare states’.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure in Prince George,Canada

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.     

Ultrafine particle fluxes above four major European cities

Little information is known about the behaviour of ultrafine particles (UFP) on a citywide scale. Total particle number flux, dominated by UFP, and other meteorological parameters were collected from tower sites in Manchester, London, Edinburgh and Gothenburg between 1999 and 2006 using the eddy covariance technique. Averaged diurnal cycles were produced for particle number flux, concentration, sensible heat flux, emission velocity, friction velocity, wind speed and temperature. UFP flux cycles showed clear diurnal trends which were linked to traffic activity and local sources. Wind sector analysis showed contributions to flux from local heavily urbanised areas. A simple parameterised model linking UFP flux to traffic activity, sensible heat and friction velocity above the city was produced.     

The effect of changing the fuel of the LASTFIRE test

The LASTFIRE test is intended for the evaluation of foams used in extinguishing fires of flammable and combustible liquids in storage tanks in refinery and oil related facilities. The purpose of this study is to find, experimentally, an alternative fuel to be used in the LASTFIRE test, as a replacement for the heptane fuel, which is normally used in this test. Beside heptane, three other fuels are tested in the current study: diesel, jet A1 and kerosene. The study involved performing the LASTFIRE test, using each of the fuels and then comparing the results. The same foam is used as an extinguishing agent for all the tests and for each fuel, tests are conducted three times with separate foam discharging nozzles: semi-aspirated, aspirated and system. Using a commonly used scoring system, the results of the four fuels are evaluated. Any replaceable fuel should obtain the similar score as that is obtained by heptane. The study shows that none of the three alternatives has been judged to be suitable to replace heptane, in the LASTFIRE test.     

Dissolved antimony concentrations in contrasted watersheds: the importance of lithogenic origin

A large series of data on dissolved antimony concentrations (900 values) from the hydrological network of Canton Geneva, Switzerland, has been statistically analysed. Data were collected from 90 sampling sites over 12 years. The watercourses surveyed (178 km) accounted for 73% of the total network. Previous studies have classified these rivers as belonging to three clearly-differentiated lithogenic zones: Alps (rivers draining crystalline regions), Jura (rivers draining carbonate-rich zones) and Plain (rivers draining molasses derived from the Alps). Antimony concentrations in the different river waters have been found to be significantly dependent on the geological characteristics of the drainage basins (median values: 0.13, 0.08 and 0.16 microg L(-1) for Alps, Jura and Plain, respectively). For antimony, it is thus possible to define background levels of the element adapted to the lithogenic characteristics for a system of interest. Since establishing background levels is an unavoidable preliminary step in any study aiming to identify and evaluate the various sources of pollution, the behaviour described here has undeniable implications for environmental surveys.     

Anti-sense expression of putrescine N-methyltransferase confirms defensive role of nicotine in Nicotiana sylvestris against Manduca sexta

Summary. Several lines of evidence support the defensive function of nicotine production in the Nicotiana genus against a range of herbivores, but the evidence is largely correlative. To suppress nicotine production in planta and to test its defensive function, we expressed DNA of putrescine N-methyl transferase in an anti-sense orientation (AS-PMT) in N. sylvestris and fed leaf material from two lines of transformed and wild type plants to Manduca sexta larvae. Larvae consumed more leaf area and gained more mass on the foliage of plants with low PMT expression and low nicotine levels as compared to plants with high PMT expression and high nicotine levels and wild type plants. Overall, larval consumption and performance were negatively correlated with constitutive nicotine levels. We conclude that nicotine decreases the palatability of N. sylvestris leaves to the nicotine-resistant M. sexta larvae.     

Assessing environmentally significant effects: a better strength-of-evidence than a single P value?

Interpreting a P value from a traditional nil hypothesis test as a strength-of-evidence for the existence of an environmentally important difference between two populations of continuous variables (e.g. a chemical concentration) has become commonplace. Yet, there is substantial literature, in many disciplines, that faults this practice. In particular, the hypothesis tested is virtually guaranteed to be false, with the result that P depends far too heavily on the number of samples collected (the ‘sample size’). The end result is a swinging burden-of-proof (permissive at low sample size but precautionary at large sample size). We propose that these tests be reinterpreted as direction detectors (as has been proposed by others, starting from 1960) and that the test’s procedure be performed simultaneously with two types of equivalence tests (one testing that the difference that does exist is contained within an interval of indifference, the other testing that it is beyond that interval—also known as bioequivalence testing). This gives rise to a strength-of-evidence procedure that lends itself to a simple confidence interval interpretation. It is accompanied by a strength-of-evidence matrix that has many desirable features: not only a strong/moderate/dubious/weak categorisation of the results, but also recommendations about the desirability of collecting further data to strengthen findings.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation.

Method

We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data.

Results and discussion

The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.