Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

Integrated model of simulated occupant injury risk and real medical costs

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated methodology that links occupant injury risk functions, estimated in the laboratory, with real world medical treatment costs by using the abbreviated injury score (AIS). Using our model, the expected medical treatment costs for crash injuries to various body regions and of different severities can be investigated.

Methods

First, the simulation results are compared with NHTSA crash data. We used a modified kinematics simulation model that incorporates an F = E^b function as a supplement to the previous Steffan's model to obtain a more accurate acceleration history a(t). Second, head injury criteria HIC₃₆ can be calculated from a(t), and we use the injury probability P as a function of HIC_36, as proposed by Kuppa, to obtain the injury risk function for various AIS values. Third, medical treatment cost models for various AIS values can be calculated by using a regression cost model with real world data. Finally, the injury risk function and medical treatment cost models are linked through AIS values. We establish an integrated methodology and predict medical costs and car safety data using real world police reports, medical treatment costs, and laboratory simulation results.

Results

Using head injuries in frontal crashes as an example, we focus on simulation parameters for different vehicle models, with and without airbags. We specifically examine impact closing speed, Delta-V, and impact directions.

Conclusion

Simulation results can be used to supplement insufficient real crash data, in particular ΔV, and injury risk results from police crash reports.

Impact on industry

The proposed integrated methodology may provide the vehicle industry with a new safety assessment method. Real crash data coupling provides consumers with more realistic and applicable information.     

Prioritizing prevention opportunities in the Washington State construction industry, 2003-2007

Objective

This study compares construction industry groups in Washington State by injury severity and cost, and ranks industry groups according to potential for prevention.

Methods

All Washington State workers' compensation compensable claims with date of injury between 2003 and 2007 were classified into North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry groups. Claims were then aggregated by injury type and industry groups were ranked according to a prevention index (PI). The PI is the average of the rank orders of the claim count and the claim incidence rate. A lower PI indicates a higher need for prevention activities. The severity rate was calculated as the number of days of time loss per 10,000 full-time equivalents (FTEs).

Results

For all injury types, construction industry groups occupy 7 of the top 15 PI ranks in Washington State. The severity rate among construction industry groups was twice that for non-construction groups for all injury types. Foundation, structure, and building exterior contractors (NAICS 2381) ranked highest in prevention potential and severity among construction industry groups for most common injury types including falls from elevation, fall on same level, struck by/against, and musculo-skeletal disorders of the neck, back, and upper extremity (WMSDs). Median claim costs by injury type were generally higher among construction industry groups.

Conclusions

The construction industry in Washington State has a high severity rate and potential for prevention. The methods used for characterizing these industry groups can be adapted for comparison within and between other industries and states.

Impact on Industry

These data can be used by industry groups and employers to identify higher cost and higher severity injury types. Knowledge about the relative frequencies and costs associated with different injury types will help employers and construction industry associations make better informed decisions about where prevention efforts are most needed and may have the greatest impact. The results of this study can also be used by industry stakeholders to cooperatively focus on high cost and high severity injuries and explore best practices, interventions, and solutions as demonstrated by efforts to prevent musculoskeletal disorders in masonry (Entzel, Albers, & Welch, 2007). Initiating construction industry groups to focus on high cost and high severity injuries may also help prevent other types of injuries.     

Prenatal diagnosis of pericentric inversion of chromosome no. 17 in a twin pregnancy

Although prenatal genetic diagnosis can usually provide prospective parents with information as to whether their fetus is affected with certain genetic conditions, the presence of twins and the uncertainty about the phenotype of some chromosome variations pose a major dilemma and make genetic counselling very difficult. Here, a case report of an unusual chromosome aberration (pericentric inversion of chromosome no. 17) in a twin pregnancy which was originally suspected to be monoamniotic but later proved to have two sacs was presented.     

生物接触氧化法处理污水的一种新型填料—悬浮填料

综述了国内外生物接触氧化法处理污水的一种新型填料－悬浮填料的研究现状，分析了此类填料的特点及其在污水处理中的应用情况，提出了改善此类填料性能的研究趋势。     

Environmentally conscious manufacturing: A technology for the nineties

Editor's note: Companies embracing TQEM must evaluate and change their manufacturing processes to stay globally competitive in the nineties. This article shows how an environmentally conscious manufacturing program incorporating new approaches to waste reduction will help companies achieve their corporatewide TQEM and strategic goals.     

Spatio-temporal trends of PCBs in the Swedish freshwater environment 1981–2012

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been monitored in perch (Perca fluviatilis), pike (Esox lucius), and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in reference lakes since the late 1960s. Temporal trends and spatial patterns are currently monitored in nine and 32 lakes, respectively. Overall, PCB concentrations are decreasing. However, this is not consistent for all congeners across all lakes and species. Perch has comparatively low PCB concentrations relative to suggested target levels, but individual congener concentrations in some lakes are concerningly high. No temporal trend is seen for CB-118 and CB-153 in perch, but significant decreasing trends exist for Arctic char and pike, for which monitoring started earlier than for perch. The lower/higher chlorinated congener ratio decreased over time in most lakes, indicating fewer new emissions. CB-118 and CB-153 concentrations in perch show spatial gradients across Sweden, with higher concentrations found near urban/industrial areas.