北极4个亚区的影响分析

在评价北极陆地生态系统影响时,人们常常强调物种和生态系统对环境变化响应的地理变化,这种变化往往与气候、生物多样性、植被带、生态系统结构和功能的南-北梯度相关联,可是,环境、生态系统的功能和结构上,以及环境史和当前气候变化的明显东-西变化显然也很重要.尽管一些地方变得温暖,但另一些地方却降温了,海洋、群岛和山脉等地理屏障的东西差异过去也对物种和植被带响应气候变化而改变分布区的能力产生了很大影响,同时,这些地理屏障为种群遗传分化和生物多样性热点区的形成提供了必要的隔离条件,这些屏障在未来气候变暖时,也将影响物种重新分布的能力.为了说明这种东西向的变化,同时也避免过分笼统或过于专业化,基于大尺度的天气和气候形成因素,北极气候影响评价项目确定了4个主要亚区.通过模拟与4个北极气候影响评价亚区有关的主要信息,导致物种分布区发生改变的地理屏障,特别是大陆的分布和海洋产生的隔离,明显会影响植被带的向北移动.对植被区向北移动的地理限制或者促进将影响将来碳的贮存和释放,以及生物圈与大气之间水和能量的交换.此外,气候变化使受威胁物种数量在各个亚区之间差别很大(白令海地区别尤其是热点),各个植被亚区重新分布的能力差异将影响每个区的生物多样性.总而言之,亚区分析表明,在整个北极地区水平上概括生态系统结构和功能的反应、物种的丧失,以及生物圈对气候系统的反馈的趋势是困难的,说明需要对北极陆地生态系统对于气候变化响应的空间变化性有深刻的认识.     

Promoting inherent safety

By inherent safety is meant that a hazard is eliminated rather than being managed by various add-on equipment and procedures. Practices of inherent safety have been developed in the chemical industry, and include for instance the substitution of hazardous substances by less hazardous ones. Inherently safer design strives to eliminate the possibility of major adverse events even when the probabilities of these events are small or cannot be meaningfully estimated. Considerations of security can be more easily incorporated into this approach than into most other branches of risk and safety analysis. Therefore, inherent safety has a great potential as a meeting-ground for the much-needed coordination of safety and security work. Its philosophical underpinnings are outlined, and proposals are made for more efficient promotion of its principles.     

Isolation and structure elucidation of azoricasterol,a new sterol of the deepwater sponge<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Macandrewia azorica</Emphasis>

Chemical investigation of the deepwater sponge Macandrewia azorica, collected from the flanks of the Gettysburg and Ormonde Sea Mount, North Atlantic, from a depth of 600 m, has led to the isolation of a new sterol with an unusual side chain (1), along with S-methylergothioneine (2). The structures of compounds 1 and 2 were established by employing spectroscopic techniques (NMR, MS, UV, IR and polarimetry). This is the first report of metabolites of a sponge belonging to the genus Macandrewia.     

Autumn migratory fuelling: a response to simulated magnetic displacements in juvenile wheatears, Oenanthe oenanthe

Recent experiments exposing migratory birds to altered magnetic fields simulating geographical displacements have shown that the geomagnetic field acts as an external cue affecting migratory fuelling behaviour. This is the first study investigating fuel deposition in relation to geomagnetic cues in long-distance migrants using the western passage of the Mediterranean region. Juvenile wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) were exposed to a magnetically simulated autumn migration from southern Sweden to West Africa. Birds displaced parallel to the west of their natural migration route, simulating an unnatural flight over the Atlantic Ocean, increased their fuel deposition compared to birds experiencing a simulated migration along the natural route. These birds, on the other hand, showed relatively low fuel loads in agreement with earlier data on wheatears trapped during stopover. The experimental displacement to the west, corresponding to novel sites in the Atlantic Ocean, led to a simulated longer distance to the wintering area, probably explaining the observed larger fuel loads. Our data verify previous results suggesting that migratory birds use geomagnetic cues for fuelling decisions and, for the first time, show that birds, on their first migration, can use geomagnetic cues to compensate for a displacement outside their normal migratory route, by adjusting fuel deposition.     

Predicting the distributions of marine organisms at the global scale

We present and evaluate AquaMaps, a presence-only species distribution modelling system that allows the incorporation of expert knowledge about habitat usage and was designed for maximum output of standardized species range maps at the global scale. In the marine environment there is a significant challenge to the production of range maps due to large biases in the amount and location of occurrence data for most species. AquaMaps is compared with traditional presence-only species distribution modelling methods to determine the quality of outputs under equivalently automated conditions. The effect of the inclusion of expert knowledge to AquaMaps is also investigated. Model outputs were tested internally, through data partitioning, and externally against independent survey data to determine the ability of models to predict presence versus absence. Models were also tested externally by assessing correlation with independent survey estimates of relative species abundance. AquaMaps outputs compare well to the existing methods tested, and inclusion of expert knowledge results in a general improvement in model outputs. The transparency, speed and adaptability of the AquaMaps system, as well as the existing online framework which allows expert review to compensate for sampling biases and thus improve model predictions are proposed as additional benefits for public and research use alike.