WATER QUALITY MODELING FOR THE FEITSUI RESERVOIR IN NORTHERN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: Field data collected from the Feitsui Reservoir in Taiwan indicate that the water is at a stage between mesotrophic and eutrophic. Recent measurements such as total phosphorus, chlorophyll a and Secchi depth levels suggest that the water quality has been declining. A two‐dimensional, laterally averaged, finite difference hydrodynamic and water quality model was used to simulate the water quality in the Feitsui Reservoir in an effort to determine sound water quality management strategies. The model was calibrated and verified using data collected in 1996 and 1997. The calibrated model was used to simulate algal biomass (in terms of chlorophyll a) levels under various wasteload reduction scenarios. Model results show that 50 percent reduction of the total phosphorus load will improve the existing water quality, shifting the trophic status from eutrophic/mesotrophic to oligotrophic. The modeling effort has yielded valuable information that can be used by decision makers for the evaluation of different management strategies of reducing watershed nutrient loads.     

TWO PRACTICAL APPROACHES FOR DETERMINING THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF RAINFALL DEPTH PERCENTILES1

ABSTRACT: A simple simulation type approach and a statistical method are proposed for determining the confidence interval of the T‐year frequency rainfall percentiles (or precipitation extremes) for generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. The former method is based on the Monte Carlo testing procedure. To generate realizations, the covariance structure of the three parameters of GEV is investigated using an observed information matrix of the likelihood function. For distributions with realistic parameters, the correlation between the location and the scale parameters is practically constant when the shape parameter varies around values close to its optimal value. The latter method is based on likelihood ratio statistics. In the case where the joint confidence surface for shape parameters and estimates is plotted with lines of best estimates, the region where the estimated best percentile value can be chosen as a possible estimate is part of the joint confidence surface. The projection of this bounded region on axis of percentile is defined as the effective confidence interval in this research. The use of this effective interval as the confidence interval of the percentile of T‐year frequency rainfall is particularly recommended because it is stable for T and it reflects variations in all three parameters of GEV appropriately.     

GENETIC PROGRAMMING: A NEW PARADIGM IN RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic Programming (GP) is a domain‐independent evolutionary programming technique that evolves computer programs to solve, or approximately solve, problems. To verify GP's capability, a simple example with known relation in the area of symbolic regression, is considered first. GP is then utilized as a flow forecasting tool. A catchment in Singapore with a drainage area of about 6 km² is considered in this study. Six storms of different intensities and durations are used to train GP and then verify the trained GP. Analysis of the GP induced rainfall and runoff relationship shows that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is consistent with the hydrologic process. The result shows that the runoff prediction accuracy of symbolic regression based models, measured in terms of root mean square error and correlation coefficient, is reasonably high. Thus, GP induced rainfall runoff relationships can be a viable alternative to traditional rainfall runoff models.     

AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH TOWARDS UNDERSTANDING ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO DAM REMOVAL: THE MANATAWNY CREEK STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Dam removal has been proposed as an effective method of river restoration, but few integrative studies have examined ecological responses to the removal of dams. In 1999, we initiated an interdisciplinary study to determine ecological responses to the removal of a 2 m high dam on lower Manatawny Creek in southeastern Pennsylvania. We used an integrative monitoring program to assess the physical, chemical, and biological responses to dam removal. Following removal in 2000, increased sediment transport has led to major changes in channel form in the former impoundment and downstream reaches. Water quality did not change markedly following removal, probably because of the impoundment's short hydraulic residence time (less than two hours at base flow) and infrequent temperature stratification. When the impoundment was converted to a free flowing reach, the composition of the benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages in this portion of Manatawny Creek shifted dramatically from lentic to lotic taxa. Some fish species inhabiting the free flowing reach downstream from the dam were negatively affected by large scale sediment transport and habitat alteration following dam removal, but this appears to be a short term response. Based on our observations and experiences in this study, we provide a list of issues to evaluate when considering future dam removals.     

The workload and performance relationship in the real world: a study of police officers in a field shooting exercise.

We examined the relationship between perceived workload and performance by evaluating the responses of police officers to 4 different draw-and-shoot tasks in a night field training exercise which was part of their regular training regimen. Sixty-two police officers volunteered to participate. Results demonstrated an associative trend among 3 tasks where shooting performance decreased and workload increased as the tasks became more complex. However, performance on 1 specific shooting task did not correlate with any of the other 3 tasks, and in this 1 exceptional case, insensitivities were observed in which workload increased but performance remained constant.     

Neural Network Input Selection for Hydrological Forecasting Affected by Snowmelt1

Abstract: Snowmelt largely affects runoff in watersheds in Nordic countries. Neural networks (NN) are particularly attractive for streamflow forecasting whereas they rely at least on daily streamflow and precipitation observations. The selection of pertinent model inputs is a major concern in NNs implementation. This study investigates performance of auxiliary NN inputs that allow short‐term streamflow forecasting without resorting to a deterministic snowmelt routine. A case study is presented for the Rivière des Anglais watershed (700 km²) located in Southern Québec, Canada. Streamflow (Q), precipitations (rain R and snow S, or total P), temperature (T) and snow lying (A) observations, combined with climatic and snowmelt proxy data, including snowmelt flow (Q_SM) obtained from a deterministic model, were tested. NN implemented with antecedent Q and R produced the largest gains in performance. Introducing increments of A and T to the NNs further improved the performance. Long‐term averages, seasonal data, and Q_SM failed to improve the networks.     

Tributyltin distribution and producing androgenic activity in water,sediment, and fish muscle

This study investigated the concentrations of Tributyltin (TBT) in water, sediment, and fish muscle samples taken from Kaohsiung Harbor and Kaoping River estuary, Taiwan. TBT concentrations in water and sediment samples ranged from less than 18.5 to 34.1 ng Sn L^?1 and from 2.44 to 29.7 ng Sn g^?1 weight per weight (w/w), respectively. Concentrations in the TBT‐contaminated fish muscle samples ranged from 10.8 to 79.6 ng Sn g^?1 w/w. The TBT concentrations in fish muscle were higher than those in water and sediment samples. The fish muscle/water TBT bioconcentration factor (BCF) ranged from 590 to 3363 L kg^?1. Additionally, the water samples were assessed for androgenic activity with an MCF7‐AR1 human breast cancer cell line. The androgenic activity ranged from 0.94 to 3.1 ng‐dihydrotestosterone per litre water (ng‐DHT L^?1). Higher concentrations of TBT in water and sediment samples occurred in the dry season, but the androgenic activity had higher values in the rainy season.     

Gastrointestinal Bacterial Transmission among Humans,Mountain Gorillas,and Livestock in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park,Uganda

Abstract: Habitat overlap can increase the risks of anthroponotic and zoonotic pathogen transmission between humans, livestock, and wild apes. We collected Escherichia coli bacteria from humans, livestock, and mountain gorillas (Gorilla gorilla beringei) in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda, from May to August 2005 to examine whether habitat overlap influences rates and patterns of pathogen transmission between humans and apes and whether livestock might facilitate transmission. We genotyped 496 E. coli isolates with repetitive extragenic palindromic polymerase chain reaction fingerprinting and measured susceptibility to 11 antibiotics with the disc‐diffusion method. We conducted population genetic analyses to examine genetic differences among populations of bacteria from different hosts and locations. Gorilla populations that overlapped in their use of habitat at high rates with people and livestock harbored E. coli that were genetically similar to E. coli from those people and livestock, whereas E. coli from gorillas that did not overlap in their use of habitats with people and livestock were more distantly related to human or livestock bacteria. Thirty‐five percent of isolates from humans, 27% of isolates from livestock, and 17% of isolates from gorillas were clinically resistant to at least one antibiotic used by local people, and the proportion of individual gorillas harboring resistant isolates declined across populations in proportion to decreasing degrees of habitat overlap with humans. These patterns of genetic similarity and antibiotic resistance among E. coli from populations of apes, humans, and livestock indicate that habitat overlap between species affects the dynamics of gastrointestinal bacterial transmission, perhaps through domestic animal intermediates and the physical environment. Limiting such transmission would benefit human and domestic animal health and ape conservation.     

Determining gestational age using genome methylation profile: A novel approach for fetal medicine

Gestational age determination by traditional tools (last menstrual period, ultrasonography measurements and Ballard Maturational Assessment in newborns) has major limitations and therefore there is a need to find different approaches. In this study, we looked for a molecular marker that can be used to determine the accurate gestational age of the newborn. To this end, we performed reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) on 41 cord blood and matching placenta samples from women between 25 and 40 weeks of gestation and generated an epigenetic clock based on the methylation level at different loci in the genome. We identified a set of 332 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) that undergo demethylation in late gestational age in cord blood cells and can predict the gestational age (r = −.7, P = 2E-05). Once the set of 411 DMRs that undergo de novo methylation in late gestational age was used in combination with the first set, it generated a more accurate clock (R = .77, P = 1.87E-05). We have compared gestational age determined by Ballard score assessment with our epigenetic clock and found high concordance. Taken together, this study demonstrates that DNA methylation can accurately predict gestational age and thus may serve as a good clinical predictor.