Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Cattle vaccination records question the impact of recent zero-deforestation agreements in the Amazon

Regional Environmental Change - In the late 2000s, slaughterhouses across the Amazon entered into a series of agreements designed to reduce the environmental impact of the local cattle sector. In...     

Spatial Distribution of Heavy Metals and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs in Spruce Forest Soil under Conditions of Regional Pollution

The influence of horizontal structure of spruce forest on the spatial distribution of acid-soluble Zn, Cd, Pb compounds and ¹³⁷Cs in the litter and the humus horizon of soddy podzolic soil has been studied in the territory with the regional background level of industrial fallout. It has been found that the distribution pattern of Zn in the forest litter is a result of biogeochemical processes. The litter in fern–wood sorrel microplots contains increased amounts of Zn and Cd, while the contents of Pb and ¹³⁷Cs are decreased. The distribution patterns of Pb and ¹³⁷Cs in the litter are positively correlated with each other, since both elements are deposited from the atmosphere, and similar mechanisms account for their redistribution in the spruce forest ecosystem.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

Demonstrating Contaminant Degradation at an MGP Site With Metabolic Gas Flux and Radio Carbon Dating

Obtaining lines of evidence indicating that contamination in sediment environments is degrading and being transformed to less toxic forms is an important component of building support for a monitored natural recovery remedy for contaminated sediments. This project was a field demonstration of manufactured gas plant contaminant degradation in river sediments using metabolic gas flux and was performed in an urban area section of a river in northeastern Indiana. CO₂ sorbent traps were deployed to measure CO₂ flux from the river sediments. Sediment samples were collected and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations and for microbial community composition using molecular techniques. The results showed that the deployment was successful, measuring CO₂ flux at all sediment locations and demonstrating that microbial contaminant degrading activity was occurring in the sediments. Radio carbon dating showed a significant portion of the CO₂ being generated (approximately 19–27 percent) was the result of fossil fuel degradation. Molecular results showed that the microbial community consisted of phylotypes known to be associated with monocyclic aromatic and PAH degradation. ©2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Optimization of Pellet Production from Agro-Industrial By-Products: Effect of Plasticizers on Properties of Pellets and Composite Pots

The present study aimed to optimize the pellets formulation (deoiled rice bran, potato peel powder and plasticizers) for the development of the injection molded pots. The maximum hardness and bulk density (desirable responses) were obtained for pellets having 100 g of deoiled rice bran, 100 g potato peel powder and 14 % of cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) as well as 14 % of glycerol (GL) (on raw material basis). The optimized pellets and the pots developed from them were characterized for their physico-chemical, functional, rheological and morphological properties. Expansion ratio, pellet durability index and hardness of the pellets with 14 % CNSL were found to be 1.097, 98.647 % and 485.551 N, respectively. For pellets with 14 % GL expansion ratio, pellet durability index and hardness were found to be 1.150, 97.747 % and 462.949 N, respectively. The biodegradation analysis of the pots developed from optimized pellets with 14 % CNSL and GL degraded in 11 and 9 weeks, respectively. Porosity, puncture force, density and hardness of ‘AP’ pots were 27.473 %, 495.731 N, 1.549 g/ml and 542.641 N, respectively. However, for ‘BP’ pots, the porosity, puncture force, density and hardness were 32.548 %, 440.149 N, 1.191 g/ml and 507.841 N, respectively. Pots prepared from 14 % CNSL (AP) were better in physical and mechanical properties as compared to pots developed from glycerol.     

2D brine sewage after impinging on a shallow sea free surface

We consider the problem of the vertically upwards disposal of heavy brine sewage from a two-dimensional diffuser in a lighter, homogeneous, motionless and shallow ambient sea. The rejected high salinity water of seawater desalination plants for urban and agricultural uses is such a case of a two dimensional fountain. The disposal of brine sewage produces a negative buoyant jet due to its initial momentum, which impinges on the free surface, spreads laterally on it and then sinks downwards, because of the negative buoyancy. Laboratory experiments and dimensional considerations are used in this paper in order to investigate the spreading behavior (width) of the vertical fountain which impinges on the free surface of the shallow ambient fluid. The experimental results have been used to derive an equation relating the width at the free surface with the initial parameters of the flow. In addition, the experimentally measured dilution of the heavier brine sewage on the recipient’s surface is compared with the dilution which was calculated by a numerical simulation of a well-known commercial software package, CORJET (a CORMIX sub model).     

Mechanism of the intermittent motion of two-phase debris flows

A typical two-phase debris flow exhibits a high and steep flow head consisting of rolling boulders and cobbles with intermittent or fluctuating velocity. The relative motion between the solid phase and the liquid phase is obvious. The motion of a two-phase debris flow depends not only on the rheological properties of the flow, but also on the energy transmission between the solid and liquid phases. Several models have been developed to study two-phase debris flows. An essential shortcoming of most of these models is the omission of the interaction between the two phases and identification of the different roles of the different materials in two-phase debris flows. The tracer particles were used for the velocity of solid phase and the velocity of liquid phase was calculated by the water velocity on the surface of the debris flow in the experiments. This paper analyzed the intermittent feature of two-phase debris flows based on videos of debris flows in the field and flume experiments. The experiments showed that the height of the head of the two-phase debris flow increased gradually in the initiation stage and reached equilibrium at a certain distance from the start of the debris flow. The height growth and the velocity of the flow head showed fluctuating characteristics. Model equations were established and the analyses proved that the average velocity of the two-phase debris flow head was proportional to the flood discharge and inversely proportional to the volume of the debris flow head.     

Simulated climate adaptation in stormwater systems: evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies

Adaptations in infrastructure may be necessitated by changes in temperature and precipitation patterns to avoid losses and maintain expected levels of service. A roster of adaptation strategies has emerged in the climate change literature, especially with regard to timing: anticipatory, concurrent, or reactive. Significant progress has been made in studying climate change adaptation decision making that incorporates uncertainty, but less work has examined how strategies interact with existing infrastructure characteristics to influence adaptability. We use a virtual testbed of highway drainage crossings configured with a selection of actual culvert emplacements in Colorado, USA, to examine the effect of adaptation strategy and culvert characteristics on cost efficiency and service level under varying rates of climate change. A meta-model approach with multinomial regression is used to compare the value of better climate change predictions with better knowledge of existing crossing characteristics. We find that, for a distributed system of infrastructural units like culverts, knowing more about existing characteristics can improve the efficacy of adaptation strategies more than better projections of climate change. Transportation departments choosing climate adaptation strategies often lack detailed data on culverts, and gathering that data could improve the efficiency of adaptation despite climate uncertainty.     

The development of a method to determine the burden of climate change on different health outcomes at a local scale: a case study in Osaka Prefecture,Japan

Climate change impacts human health in a variety of ways. Variables including the climate-related risk factor, the health outcome and location all determine the nature and extent of the impact. The existence of different pathways and endpoints presents a problem for quantifying and comparing impacts. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) provides a common scale, whereby the impact of climate change on both acute and chronic health outcomes can be compared. This study presents a methodology to calculate the impact of climate change on human health at a local scale, using cardiovascular disease (CVD) and meteorological disaster-related injuries (DRIs) in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, as applied case studies. An additional very fine scale assessment of CVD conducted at the neighbourhood level to demonstrate the importance of conducting risk assessments at a local level. The comparative results calculated the impact of climate change in 2050 to be 16.866 DALY/100,000 population for CVD and 0.645 DALY/100,000 for meteorological DRIs. The actual impact of climate change by 2050 on CVD is judged to be higher, although the relative risk was projected to be lower (1.006, compared to 1.263 for meteorological DRIs). The fine scale assessment revealed the variations in the projected impact of climate change on CVD for all administrative zones in Osaka Prefecture. The range of impacts varied from 0 to 114.29 DALY/100,000. The results demonstrate the applicability of using DALY to quantify the impact of climate change on different health outcomes, using a transferable methodology, and provide information that enables evidence-based prioritisation of climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.