AN INTERACTWE MODELING ENVIRONMENT FOR NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: Non-point source pollution cuntinues to be an important environmental and water quality management problem. For the moat part, analysis of non-point source pollution in watersheds has depended on the use of distributed models to identify potential problem areas and to assess the effectiveness of alternative management practices. To effectively use these models for watershed water quality management, users depend on integrated geographic information systems (GIS)-based interfaces for input/output data management. However, existing interfaces are ad-hoc and the utility of GIS is limited to organization of input data and display of output data. A highly interactive water quality modeling interface that utilizes the functional components and analytical capability of GIS is highly desirable. This paper describes the tight coupling of the Agricultural Non-point Source (AGNPS) water quality model and ARC/INFO GIS software to provide an interactive hybrid modeling environment for evaluation of non-point source pollution in a watershed. The modeling environment is designed to generate AGNPS input parameters from user-specified GIS coverages, create AGNPS input data files, control AGNPS model simulations, and extract and organize AGNPS model output data for display. An example application involving the estimation of pesticide loading in a southern Iowa agricultural watershed demonstrates the capability of the modeling environment. Compared with traditional methods of watershed water quality modeling using the AGNPS model or other ad-hoc interfaces between a distributed model and GIS, the interactive modeling environment system is efficient and significantly reduces the task of watershed analysis using tightly coupled GIS databases and distributed models.     

Maintaining high-volume, low-pressure surface-coating regulatory compliance using the U.s. Environmental Protection Agency's data quality objectives process

To effectively reduce the environmental compliance costs associated with meeting specific requirements under the Aerospace Manufacturing and Rework Facility's National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants rule, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Data Quality Objective (DQO) process has been proposed as a suitable framework for developing a scientifically defensible surface compliance monitoring program. By estimating the variability associated with the air cap pressure of high- volume, low-pressure (HVLP) surface-coating spray equipment, the number of monitoring samples necessary for an affected facility to claim compliance with a desired statistical confidence level was established. Using data taken from the pilot test facility, the DQO process indicated that the mean of at least 21 HVLP air cap pressure samples taken over the compliance period must be < or = 10 pounds per square inch (psig) gauge for the facility to claim regulatory compliance with 99.99% statistical confidence. Fewer compliance samples could be taken, but that decision would lead to a commensurate reduction in the compliance confidence level. Implementation of the DQO-based compliance sampling plan eliminates the need for an affected facility to sample all regulated HVLP surface-coating processes while still maintaining a high level of compliance assurance.     

Book reviews

ENGLISH STRUCTURE PLANNING

Eds: D. T. Cross and M. R. Bristow

Pion Ltd., London, 1983. £16.00.

AN INTRODUCTION TO URBAN RENEWAL

Michael S. Gibson and Michael J. Longstaff

London: Hutchinson, 1982. 384 pp.

INTEGRATED URBAN MODELS

S. H. Putman

Pion Ltd., 1983, 332 pp.

EXPLANATION PREDICTION AND PLANNING: THE LOWRY MODEL

M. T. Webber

Pion Ltd., London, 1984, 214 pp.

THE GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION OF METROPOLITAN AREAS IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES

Alan Norton

Institute of Local Government Studies, University of Birmingham, 1983, 57 pp.

THE MANAGEMENT OF SEMI‐NATURAL WOODLAND

County Planning Officers’ Society (available from Hampshire County Planning Dept., price £2.00).     

UTILIZATION OF LANDSCAPE INDICATORS TO MODEL POTENTIAL PATHOGEN IMPAIRED WATERS1

ABSTRACT: Many water bodies within the United States are contaminated by non‐point source (NPS) pollution, which is defined as those materials posing a threat to water quality arising from a number of individual sources and diffused through hydrologic processes. One such NPS pollutant that is of critical concern are pathogens derived from animal wastes, including humans. The potential presence of pathogens is identified by testing the water for fecal conform, a bacteria also associated with animal wastes. Water contaminated by animal wastes are most often associated with urban and agricultural areas, thus it is postulated that by utilizing land cover indicators, those water bodies that may be at risk of fecal coliform contamination may be identified. This study utilizes land cover information derived from the Multi‐Resolution Land Characterization (MRLC) project to analyze fecal coliform contamination in South Carolina. Also utilized are 14 digit hydro‐logic unit code (HUC) watersheds of the state, a digital elevation model, and test point data stating whether fecal coliform levels exceeded State Water Quality Standards. Proportions of the various land covers are identified within the individual watersheds and then analyzed using a logistic regression. The results reveal that watersheds with large proportions of urban land cover and agriculture on steep slopes had a very high probability of being impaired. (KEY TERMS: Geographic Information Systems; land use planning; nonpoint source pollution; statistical analysis; water quality; watershed management.)     

Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability

Both means and year-to-year variances of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are predicted to change. However, the potential impact of changing climatic variability on the fate of populations has been largely unexamined. We analyzed multiyear demographic data for 36 plant and animal species with a broad range of life histories and types of environment to ask how sensitive their long-term stochastic population growth rates are likely to be to changes in the means and standard deviations of vital rates (survival, reproduction, growth) in response to changing climate. We quantified responsiveness using elasticities of the long-term population growth rate predicted by stochastic projection matrix models. Short-lived species (insects and annual plants and algae) are predicted to be more strongly (and negatively) affected by increasing vital rate variability relative to longer-lived species (perennial plants, birds, ungulates). Taxonomic affiliation has little power to explain sensitivity to increasing variability once longevity has been taken into account. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of short-lived species to an increasingly variable climate, but also suggest that problems associated with short-lived undesirable species (agricultural pests, disease vectors, invasive weedy plants) may be exacerbated in regions where climate variability decreases.     

Correlations between age, phenotype, and individual contribution to population growth in common terns

There have been numerous reports of changes in phenology, which are frequently attributed to environmental change. Age-dependent change in phenotypic traits, fledgling production, and the timing of events in the life cycle is also widespread. This means that changes in the age structure of a population could generate changes in phenology, which may be incorrectly attributed to environmental change or microevolution. Here, estimates of selection for arrival date, arrival mass, and laying date are compared when age is and is not corrected for. This is achieved using long-term individual-based data collected from a breeding colony of Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) and a novel fitness measure: individual contributions to population growth. The failure to correct for age generated deceptive estimates of selection in eight out of nine comparisons. In six out of nine comparisons, the direction of selection differed between age-corrected and uncorrected estimates. Persistent individual differences were detected: individuals remained within the same part of the phenotype distribution throughout life. The age-corrected estimates of selection were weak and explained little variation in fitness, suggesting that arrival date, arrival mass, and laying date are not under intense selection in this population. These results also demonstrate the importance of correcting for age when identifying factors associated with changes in seabird phenology.     

Population Growth,Available Resources,and Quality of Life:China’s Post-Reform Economic Development

Two opposing intellectual traditions and their contem-porary developments regarding the relations among population, available resources, and quality of life as reflected in economic growth are reviewed. What is at issue is whether population growth is detrimental to or beneficial for economic development. Neither of the extreme views gives a complete picture of the interplay among population, resources, and quality of life. Following previous literature on the topic, this paper establishes a more balanced approach that considers the function linking population and quality of life not constant but variable and regards the limitedness of resources as not absolute but relative to regions and societies. The proposed approach is more flexible in better explaining the relation between population and economic growth. China is examined as a case in point to shed light on the interaction of population growth, economic development, and available resources, and its recent post-economic reform experiences showcase the appropriateness of the synthetic approach.     

A Framework to Integrate Habitat Monitoring and Restoration with Endangered Insect Recovery

Monitoring is essential to track the long-term recovery of endangered species. Greater emphasis on habitat monitoring is especially important for taxa whose populations may be difficult to quantify (e.g., insects) or when true recovery (delisting) requires continuous species-specific habitat management. In this paper, we outline and implement a standardized framework to facilitate the integration of habitat monitoring with species recovery efforts. The framework has five parts: (1) identify appropriate sample units, (2) select measurable indicators of habitat requirements, (3) determine rating categories for these indicators, (4) design and implement appropriate data collection protocols, and (5) synthesize the ratings into an overall measure of habitat potential. Following these steps, we developed a set of recovery criteria to estimate habitat potential and initially assess restoration activities in the context of recovering an endangered insect, the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis). We recommend basing the habitat potential grading scheme on recovery plan criteria, the latest information on species biology, and working hypotheses as needed. The habitat-based assessment framework helps to identify which recovery areas and habitat patches are worth investing in and what type of site-specific restoration work is needed. We propose that the transparency and decision-making process in endangered insect recovery efforts could be improved through adaptive management that explicitly identifies and tracks progress toward habitat objectives and ultimate population recovery.     

Congo Basin peatlands: threats and conservation priorities

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - The recent publication of the first spatially explicit map of peatlands in the Cuvette Centrale, central Congo Basin, reveals it to be the...     

An interactive simulation and visualization tool for flood analysis usable for practitioners

Developing strategies to mitigate or to adapt to the threats of floods is an important topic in the context of climate changes. Many of the world’s cities are endangered due to rising ocean levels and changing precipitation patterns. It is therefore crucial to develop analytical tools that allow us to evaluate the threats of floods and to investigate the influence of mitigation and adaptation measures, such as stronger dikes, adaptive spatial planning, and flood disaster plans. Up until the present, analytical tools have only been accessible to domain experts, as the involved simulation processes are complex and rely on computational and data-intensive models. Outputs of these analytical tools are presented to practitioners (i.e., policy analysts and political decision-makers) on maps or in graphical user interfaces. In practice, this output is only used in limited measure because practitioners often have different information requirements or do not trust the direct outcome. Nonetheless, literature indicates that a closer collaboration between domain experts and practitioners can ensure that the information requirements of practitioners are better aligned with the opportunities and limitations of analytical tools. The objective of our work is to present a step forward in the effort to make analytical tools in flood management accessible for practitioners to support this collaboration between domain experts and practitioners. Our system allows the user to interactively control the simulation process (addition of water sources or influence of rainfall), while a realistic visualization allows the user to mentally map the results onto the real world. We have developed several novel algorithms to present and interact with flood data. We explain the technologies, discuss their necessity alongside test cases, and introduce a user study to analyze the reactions of practitioners to our system. We conclude that, despite the complexity of flood simulation models and the size of the involved data sets, our system is accessible for practitioners of flood management so that they can carry out flood simulations together with domain experts in interactive work sessions. Therefore, this work has the potential to significantly change the decision-making process and may become an important asset in choosing sustainable flood mitigations and adaptation strategies.