Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.     

The Significance of the North Water Polynya to Arctic Top Predators

The North Water polynya (~76°N to 79°N and 70°W to 80°W) is known to be an important habitat for several species of marine mammals and sea birds. For millennia, it has provided the basis for subsistence hunting and human presence in the northernmost part of Baffin Bay. The abundance of air-breathing top predators also represents a potential source of nutrient cycling that maintains primary production. In this study, aerial surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010 were used for the first time to map the distribution and estimate the abundance of top predators during spring in the North Water. Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) were not detected north of 77°20′N but were found along the coast of West Greenland and offshore in the middle of the North Water with an abundance estimated at 2245 (95 % CI 1811–2783). Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were widely distributed on the eastern side of the North Water with an estimate of abundance of 7726 (3761–15 870). Walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) were found across the North Water over both shallow and deep (>500 m) water with an estimated abundance of 1499 (1077–2087). Bearded (Erignathus barbatus) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida) used the large floes of ice in the southeastern part of the North Water for hauling out. Most polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were detected in the southern part of the polynya. The abundances of bearded and ringed seals were 6016 (3322–10 893) and 9529 (5460–16 632), respectively, and that of polar bears was 60 (12–292). Three sea bird species were distributed along the Greenland coast (eiders, Somateria spp.), in leads and cracks close to the Greenland coast (little auks, Alle alle) or widely in open water (thick-billed guillemots, Uria lomvia).     

Knowledge creation and reliable decision-making in complex emergencies

This paper examines how the creation of knowledge and the location of decision-making authority within relief organisations influence coordination. Information was collected from the headquarters of international non-governmental organisations in 2003, as well as from Darfur and Khartoum, Sudan, in 2005 and 2007, respectively. Relief organisations rely on quality information dissemination between the field and headquarters. Yet, reporting from the field often is overloaded with misplaced precision, making it difficult for managers at headquarters to grasp the key issues. A high turnover rate among international field officers and a lack of inclusion of local staff and partners prevent the development of accumulated knowledge. Furthermore, most relief organisations have a centralised decision-making system. The creation of 'collective-meaning structures', based on reliable information on all decision-making levels, opens the way to the decentralisation of decision-making to field officers engaged with inter-organisational coordination structures. In sum, more efficient and reliable coordination between organisations relies on improved decision-making systems within each organisation.     

Intensive land use in the Swedish mountains between AD 800 and 1200 led to deforestation and ecosystem transformation with long-lasting effects

Anthropogenic deforestation has shaped ecosystems worldwide. In subarctic ecosystems, primarily inhabited by native peoples, deforestation is generally considered to be mainly associated with the industrial period. Here we examined mechanisms underlying deforestation a thousand years ago in a high-mountain valley with settlement artifacts located in subarctic Scandinavia. Using the Heureka Forestry Decision Support System, we modeled pre-settlement conditions and effects of tree cutting on forest cover. To examine lack of regeneration and present nutrient status, we analyzed soil nitrogen. We found that tree cutting could have deforested the valley within some hundred years. Overexploitation left the soil depleted beyond the capacity of re-establishment of trees. We suggest that pre-historical deforestation has occurred also in subarctic ecosystems and that ecosystem boundaries were especially vulnerable to this process. This study improves our understanding of mechanisms behind human-induced ecosystem transformations and tree-line changes, and of the concept of wilderness in the Scandinavian mountain range.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0634-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

Levels of persistent organic pollutants in the Neretva River (Bosnia and Herzegovina) determined by deployment of semipermeable membrane devices (SPMD)

The main objective of this study was to determine levels of certain persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Neretva River, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which is currently facing implementation of the Stockholm Convention on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and environmental protection strategies. This is the very first report on the deployment of semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) in BiH. SPMDs were used for continuous 3-weeks sampling of POPs at three locations, covering 220 km long stream of the Neretva River. Water concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs) were calculated using performance reference compounds (PRCs). The total OCP concentrations ranged from 40 to 140 pg L^?1 and most of compounds were detected only in lower course of the river. Total PAH ranged from 160 to 4000 pg L^?1 and show a clear spatial variation. Dominant PAHs were phenanthrene, fluoranthene, fluorene and acenaphthene. Total PCB ranged from undetectable to 120 pg L^?1. From the group of 15 PBDE congeners investigated, only PBDE-47 and PBDE-99 were detected. Since the concentrations of broad spectrum of POPs found in the Neretva River are quite low, future actions should be focused on preservation rather than on sanitation measures. Regular monitoring should anyhow be established.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

Accidental Versus Operational Oil Spills from Shipping in the Baltic Sea: Risk Governance and Management Strategies

Marine governance of oil transportation is complex. Due to difficulties in effectively monitoring procedures on vessels en voyage, incentives to save costs by not following established regulations on issues such as cleaning of tanks, crew size, and safe navigation may be substantial. The issue of problem structure is placed in focus, that is, to what degree the specific characteristics and complexity of intentional versus accidental oil spill risks affect institutional responses. It is shown that whereas the risk of accidental oil spills primarily has been met by technical requirements on the vessels in combination with Port State control, attempts have been made to curb intentional pollution by for example increased surveillance and smart governance mechanisms such as the No-Special-Fee system. It is suggested that environmental safety could be improved by increased use of smart governance mechanisms tightly adapted to key actors’ incentives to alter behavior in preferable directions.