环境风险预警评估方法研究

有毒有害物质发生突发性事故时将造成环境危害，使人体健康受到影响，严重时机毁人亡。本文通过对有毒有害污染源分析，事故频率分析，后果分析，风险预警估算及防范措施与应急计划的分析从环境风险与人体健康的角度上论述了在有毒有害物质作业场所预警技术问题。     

Advanced process systems design technology for pollution prevention and waste treatment

The paper presents a generic process synthesis and optimisation tool suitable to take up applications in the design of waste treatment systems and in pollution prevention. The main component of the technology is a generalized process synthesis representation for simultaneous consideration of reaction and separation in multiphase systems that is amenable for stochastic optimisation. The flexibility of the representation allows applications to overall process synthesis problems as well as to decomposed reactor, reactive separation and mass exchange network design problems. Applications of the synthesis framework to waste water treatments processes using activated sludge and to natural gas sweetening in hybrid membrane-adsorption processes are presented. The paper highlights the use of the systematic technology in environmental systems design and shows how novel designs of improved performance as well as optimal design knowledge can be revealed using the systematic design framework. Context abstract: Environmental process systems for waste treatment and pollution prevention become increasingly complicated to design. There is a strong need for technology that provides systematic decision support to the process synthesis team in order to enable the timely selection of processes that operate close to the performance limits of the system under consideration. Conventional, optimisation-based process design technology is severely limited by the number of design decisions they can support simultaneously as well as by the increasingly complex process models required for the meaningful mathematical representation of environmental process systems. We have devised an optimisation-based process design methodology for integrated reaction and separation systems that overcomes major limitations of existing tools. This paper illustrates the use of this technology to provide systematic decision-support to the environmental process systems designer.     

肇庆星湖水质模型研究

根据星湖水污染特点，建立包括ＮＨ＾＿４－Ｎ，ＮＯ＾－２－Ｎ，ＮＯ＾－３－Ｎ，ＣＢＯＤ，ＤＯ的多元耦合氧平衡模型，Ｐ平衡模拟以及Ｃｈｌａ－Ｐ关系统计模型。模型中的参数采用实验法，经验公式法以及利用实测资料率定等方法，经实测资料验证，模型精度达到基本要求，可用于星湖水质管理实际工作。     

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

城市生态系统能值分析（EMA）的原理与步骤

将城市自然－经济－社会复合生态系统作为研究对象，介绍能值分析方法在城市生态学动态研究和定量研究中的应用原理与步骤，为人们客观评价自然环境对城市发展的贡献提供科学依据。     

Injuries associated with the use of riding mowers in the United States, 2002-2007

Context: To examine injuries among patients treated in an emergency department (ED) related to the use of a riding lawn mower.Design and Setting: Data were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System for the years 2002-2007. National estimates of ED visits for injuries associated with the use of a riding lawn mower were analyzed. Narrative text entries were categorized to provide a detailed record of the circumstances precipitating the injury. Average annual rates were calculated and logistic regression analyses were employed to determine risk estimates for patient disposition and demographic characteristics related to ED visits for injuries associated with riding mowers.Results: From 2002 through 2007, there were an estimated 66,341 ED visits for injuries related to the use of riding lawnmowers in the U.S., with an average annual rate of 6.0 ED visits per 100,000 males, and 1.6 ED visits per 100,000 females. Older adults had higher rates of ED visits for injuries (7.2/100,000) than younger age groups. The most common injuries involved contusions (24%); sprains/strains (22%) and fractures (17%). The majority of patients (90%) were treated and released the same day. Results of logistic regression analyses revealed that older adults were more likely to be hospitalized when compared to younger age groups; and incidents involving rollovers [OR = 5.45 (95% CI = 3.22-9.23)] and being run over [6.01 (95% CI 3.23-11.17)] were more likely to result in hospitalization when compared to all other circumstances of injury.Conclusions: Riding mowers present injury patterns and circumstances that are different than those reported for push mowers. Circumstances related to injuries and age groups affected were varied, making prevention of riding mower injuries challenging. Application/Impact: Findings support the need to increase awareness and/or change the design of riding mowers with respect to risk of rollover injuries.     

Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey

Introduction

The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey.

Method

Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of P < 0.05 with spatial autocorrelation analyses.

Results

Regions with high concentration of fatal accidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as P < 0.05. Large differences were found between the rates of deaths and accidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R² values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R² for death and accident rates, compared with 0.88-0.95, respectively, by ordinary least regressions.

Impact on industry

Geographically weighted regression has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of rates, which would be ignored by the ordinary least regression approach. The application of spatial analysis and modeling of accident statistics and death rates at provincial level in Turkey will help to identification of provinces with outstandingly high accident and death rates. This could help more efficient road safety management in Turkey.