Multi-decadal drought and amplified moisture variability drove rapid forest community change in a humid region

Climate variability, particularly the frequency of extreme events, is likely to increase in the coming decades, with poorly understood consequences for terrestrial ecosystems. Hydroclimatic variations of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) provide a setting for studying ecological responses to recent climate variability at magnitudes and timescales comparable to expectations of coming centuries. We examined forest response to the MCA in the humid western Great Lakes region of North America, using proxy records of vegetation, fire, and hydroclimate. Multi-decadal moisture variability during the MCA was associated with a widespread, episodic decline in Fagus grandifolia (beech) populations. Spatial patterns of drought and forest changes were coherent, with beech declining only in areas where proxy-climate records indicate that severe MCA droughts occurred. The occurrence of widespread, drought-induced ecological changes in the Great Lakes region indicates that ecosystems in humid regions are vulnerable to rapid changes in drought magnitude and frequency.     

Plasticity of social organization in a forest ant species

We manipulated availability of food and nesting sites in one population of the forest ant Myrmica punctiventris. The manipulations produced significant changes in relatedness structure, reproductive allocation, and response to hierarchical selection. Food availability appeared to have a consistently stronger influence on these aspects of social organization than did availability of nesting sites. We interpret our experimental results in light of observed differences between populations, and discuss implications for kin selection dynamics. Received: 30 July 1998 / Accepted after revision: 31 October 1998     

Combining functional data with hierarchical Gaussian process models

Gaussian process models have been used in applications ranging from machine learning to fisheries management. In the Bayesian framework, the Gaussian process is used as a prior for unknown functions, allowing the data to drive the relationship between inputs and outputs. In our research, we consider a scenario in which response and input data are available from several similar, but not necessarily identical, sources. When little information is known about one or more of the populations it may be advantageous to model all populations together. We present a hierarchical Gaussian process model with a structure that allows distinct features for each source as well as shared underlying characteristics. Key features and properties of the model are discussed and demonstrated in a number of simulation examples. The model is then applied to a data set consisting of three populations of Rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus Pallas. Specifically, we model the log growth rate of the populations using a combination of lagged population sizes. The various lag combinations are formally compared to obtain the best model inputs. We then formally compare the leading hierarchical Gaussian process model with the inferential results obtained under the independent Gaussian process model.     

Exposure of insects and insectivorous birds to metals and other elements from abandoned mine tailings in three Summit County drainages, Colorado

Concentrations of 31 metals, metalloids, and other elements were measured in insects and insectivorous bird tissues from three drainages with different geochemistry and mining histories in Summit Co., Colorado, in 2003, 2004, and 2005. In insect samples, all 25 elements that were analyzed in all years increased in both Snake and Deer Creeks in the mining impacted areas compared to areas above and below the mining impacted areas. This distribution of elements was predicted from known or expected sediment contamination resulting from abandoned mine tailings in those drainages. Element concentrations in avian liver tissues were in concordance with levels in insects, that is with concentrations higher in mid-drainage areas where mine tailings were present compared to both upstream and downstream locations; these differences were not always statistically different, however. The lack of statistically significant differences in liver tissues, except for a few elements, was due to relatively small sample sizes and because many of these elements are essential and therefore well regulated by the bird's homeostatic processes. Most elements were at background concentrations in avian liver tissue except for Pb which was elevated at mid-drainage sites to levels where delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase activity was inhibited at other mining sites in Colorado. Lead exposure, however, was not at toxic levels. Fecal samples were not a good indication of what elements birds ingested and were potentially exposed to.     

Model-based analysis of the influence of ecological processes on forest point pattern formation—A case study

Many different spatio-temporal individual-based models (IBM) for forests have been developed for studying the development of trees in space and time. Such models typically depend on various numerical parameters that represent the ecological processes of growth (G), inter-plant competition (C) and birth-and-death (B&D; also called regeneration and mortality). Until now little work has been done to systematically trace the influence of these processes and their model parameters on the spatial structure of forest ecosystems.This paper attempts to fill this gap by addressing an important aspect of forest structure, spatial variability, characterised by the mark variogram as a summary characteristic. The model used was inspired by components of various well-established IBMs including a shot-noise competition field. Time series data from monospecies forests in three different countries of the northern hemisphere provided ecological reference scenarios. Though a case study, the paper's methodology is rather general and can be applied to any model and forest ecosystem.Methods of sensitivity analysis revealed that only a small number of model parameters is crucial for forming spatial variability. Particularly important is the range of competition between trees; with increasing range the variability increases. Growth processes have considerable importance particularly with short observation periods and in young forests, whereas mortality processes become more influential in the long-term. Naturally, these statements depend upon the initial structure and on the length of the observation period.     

Development and modelling of realistic retrofitted Nature-based Solution scenarios to reduce flood occurrence at the catchment scale

Decentralized Nature-based Solutions such as Urban Green Infrastructures (UGI) are increasingly promoted to reduce flooding in urban areas. Many studies have shown the effectiveness of flood control of UGI at a plot or neighbourhood level. Modelling approaches that extrapolate their flood reducing impact to larger catchment scales are often based on a simplistic assumption of different percentages of UGI implementation. Additionally, such approaches typically do not consider the suitable space for UGI and potential implementation constraints. This study proposes a scenario development and modelling approach for a more realistic upscaling of UGI based on empirical insights from a representative neighbourhood. The results from this study, conducted in the metropolitan area of Costa Rica, show that upscaling the full potential for UGI could significantly reduce surface runoff, peak flows, and flood volumes. In particular, the permeable pavement has the highest potential for flood reducing in public space while cisterns perform best at the property level. These results can guide the formation of policies that promote UGI.Supplementary InformationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01493-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Agricultural land use efficiency and food crop production in Ghana

Despite the low productivity of the extensive agriculture system, Ghana recorded the largest reduction of undernourishment in the past two decades. We used biophysical analysis to determine the efficiency and potentials of the extensive system and its future sustainability. The results indicate that food production in Ghana has increased steadily over the past two decades and correlated highly with cropped area and population (R ² < 0.85 and 0.82), but not with fertilizer (R ² = 0.06). Sufficient food production could be sustained in the short term. In the longer term, however, the food situation in Ghana appears precarious if population growth continues while land remains the same.