Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.     

Discrete-choice experiments valuing local environmental impacts of renewables: two approaches to a case study in Portugal

Despite the often mentioned environmental benefits associated with transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, their use for electricity production has non-negligible negative environmental impacts. The most commonly mentioned in surveys concern different types of landscape impacts, impacts on the fauna and flora, and noise. These impacts differ by size and location of plants, and by source of energy, rendering the policy decision complex. In addition, there are other welfare issues to take into consideration, as positive and negative environmental impacts are not evenly distributed among population groups. This paper proposes to compare the welfare impacts of renewable energy sources controlling for the type of renewable as well as the specific environmental impact by source. To this end, two discrete-choice experiments are designed and applied to a national sample of the Portuguese population. In one case, only individual negative impacts of renewables are used, and in another case, the negative impacts interact with a specific source. Results show the robustness of discrete-choice experiments as a method to estimate the welfare change induced by the impacts of renewable energy sources. Overall, respondents are willing to pay to reduce the environmental impacts, thus making compensation for local impacts feasible. Moreover, the estimations reveal that respondents are significantly sensitive to the detrimental environmental effects of specific renewable energy sources, being willing to pay more to use these sources of energy relative to others.     

Evaluating knowledge integration and co-production in a 2-year collaborative learning process with smallholder dairy farmer groups

Although knowledge integration and co-production are integral to transdisciplinary approaches to foster sustainable change in social–ecological systems, this type of research is usually not evaluated based on assessments of the learning process. While participants are meant to be central in such approaches, too often, their perspectives are not central to the evaluation. Moreover, there is limited empirical information about how new knowledge is transformed into action. We respond to these knowledge gaps by analyzing (A) farmers’ perspectives on the collaborative learning process and (B) how farmers’ new knowledge can serve as the basis for changed actions. Theoretically, we are guided by second-order cybernetics and have integrated the Control Loop Model with Learning Loops to extend Kirkpatrick (Evaluating training programs: the four levels, 2nd edn. Berrett-Koehler Publisher, San Francisco, 1998) four-level evaluation scheme. We apply this to evaluate a 2-year collaborative learning process with two smallholder dairy farmer groups in Nakuru County, Kenya that aimed to co-develop local sustainable pathways to reduce milk losses. Results showed that farmers learned by (1) implementing corrective actions based on known cause–effect relations (single-loop learning); (2) discovering new cause–effect relations and testing their effect (double-loop learning); and (3) further questioning and changing their aims (triple-loop learning). Highlighting the importance of knowledge integration and co-production, this collaboration between farmers, researchers, and field assistants improved the farmers’ ability to respond, adapt, and intentionally transform their farming system in relation with complex sustainability challenges. Results demonstrate that the potential of our evaluation scheme to better reflect learning and empowerment experienced by actors involved in transdisciplinary research for sustainability.     

Anishnaabe Aki: an indigenous perspective on the global threat of invasive species

Conservation discourses tend to portray invasive species as biological entities temporally connected to colonial timelines, using terms such as “alien”, “colonizing”, “colonial”, and “native”. This focus on a colonial timeline emerges from scientific publications within conservation biology and invasion ecology and is enacted through invasive species management by state and NGO actors. Colonialism is influential for indigenous nations in myriad ways, but in what ways do indigenous understandings of invasive species engage with colonialism? We conducted ethnographic research with indigenous Anishnaabe communities to learn about the ways Anishnaabe people conceptualize invasive species as a phenomenon in the world and were gifted with three primary insights. First, Anishnaabe regard plants, like all beings, as persons that assemble into nations more so than “species”. The arrival of new plant nations is viewed by some Anishnaabe as a natural form of migration. The second insight highlights the importance of actively discovering the purpose of new species, sometimes with the assistance of animal teachers. Lastly, while Anishnaabe describe invasive species as phenomenologically entangled with colonialism, the multiple ways Anishnaabe people think about invasive species provide alternatives to native–non-native binaries that dominate much of the scientific discourse.     

Human–nature connectedness as a ‘treatment’ for pro-environmental behavior: making the case for spatial considerations

The degree to which an individual feels connected to the natural world can be a positive predictor of pro-environmental behavior (PEB). This has led to calls to ‘reconnect to nature’ as a ‘treatment’ for PEB. What is not clear is the relationship between where one feels connected to nature and where one acts pro-environmentally. We propose that integrating spatial scale into the conceptualization of these constructs will provide insights into how different degrees of connectedness influence pro-environmental behavior. We discuss trends towards a spatial understanding of human–nature connectedness (HNC) and introduce three archetypes that highlight scalar relationships between scale of connectedness and scale of pro-environmental behavior: (1) equal interactions, (2) embedded interactions, and (3) extended interactions. We discuss potential policy and practice implications of taking a spatially explicit approach to HNC–PEB research, and propose a research agenda for investigating these scalar relationships that can inform nature as a ‘treatment’ intervention.     

Effects of Topographical Heterogeneity and Dispersal Limitation on Species Turnover in a Temperate Mountane Ecosystem: a Case Study in the Henan Province,China

Species turnover patterns can be inconsistent due to differences in the dispersal ability of different growth forms. Here, species of trees, shrubs, herbs, and bryophytes in the Xiaoqinling National Nature Reserve in China were analyzed to determine patterns of species turnover along an elevation and spatial gradient. Variance partitioning was used to assess the relative contribution of topographic heterogeneity and dispersal limitation to species turnover. Our results suggest that the effect of dispersal limitation is more important than topographic heterogeneity on species turnover in temperate mountane ecosystems in the study area. Dispersal limitation has a greater effect on trees species turnover than on shrubs, herbs or bryophytes species turnover.     

Factors Affecting Predator-Prey Distribution in a Protected Area,Tehran, Iran (a Case with Wolves and Wild Sheep)

We tried to model habitat suitability of two prey and predator species including wild sheep (Ovis orientalis) and wolf (Canis lupus) in Varjin protected area located in northern east of Tehran using a presence only method, maximum entropy (MaxEnt). Totally 11 environmental variables were measured in the species presence points which can be classified in three groups including topographical, vegetation and distal variables. Resulted maps indicated that habitat variables such as slope (ranging from 35 to 40 percent) and elevation (lower than 1700 meters above sea level) are both institute those factors which mostly affect studied prey and predator habitat use. Our results regarding prey and predator geographical range of used habitat indicated that wolves cover most area than wild sheep which show more dispersed habitat resources for the prey species. ENMTools test revealed that wolf’s niche breadth is more than twice as much as wild sheep’s. Wild sheep in Varjin protected area has a relatively narrow geographical extent and shows a tendency to marginal habitats while wolves cover obviously more areas which denotes its high mobility and low dependency to specific habitats.     

Variation in the Composition of Secondary Metabolites in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Flavocetraria</Emphasis> Lichens from Western Siberia

The composition and contents of secondary metabolites in Flavocetraria lichens from Eastern Siberia were analyzed using herbarium specimens. Based on the composition of identified metabolites, three F. cucullata chemotypes and two F. nivalis chemotypes were distinguished. Distinct geographic differentiation between the F. cucullata chemotypes was revealed, probably reflecting their adaptation to environmental conditions. The content of usnic acid in F. cucullata thalli was found to correlate with the latitude of growing region. This may be regarded as evidence for a protective role of this metabolite in lichens growing at high latitudes and exposed to excess solar irradiation during the polar day.