可变模糊评价法在洪涝灾情评价中的应用

灾情评价实质上是一个模式识别问题.以往的灾情评价模型,虽解决了各单项指标灾情等级评估结果的不相容问题,但往往不能检验所给结果的准确性.基于可变模糊集理论,采用可变模糊评价模型可以科学、合理地确定样本指标对各级指标标准区间的相对隶属度和相对隶属函数,并且能够通过变换参数(α与P)变化模型进行评价.通过对多个评价结果进行比较分析,可以合理地确定出样本的评价等级.同时,由于该模型确定的灾级是连续的实数值,因而提高了灾情等级评价的灾级分辨率.最后将该方法应用于河南省洪涝灾情的综合评价中.应用实例表明,该模型计算简便,评价结果可信度高,可推广应用到其它灾情等级评估中.     

中国自然保护区可持续管理模式探讨——伦敦自然保护区管理模式借鉴

近年来,世界各地自然保护区迅速发展,如何有效持续地管理这些自然保护区成为一个重要的问题。文章分析了我国自然保护区现有管理模式的特点与存在的问题,简要介绍了伦敦自然保护区的管理模式现状,根据我国的实际情况,笔者认为中国的自然保护区应采用强制式和完全参与合作式相结合的管理模式,并提出了几点管理模式的改革建议。     

A mini review of fluoride-induced apoptotic pathways

Fluorine or fluoride can have toxic effects on bone tissue and soft tissue at high concentrations. These negative effects include but not limited to cytotoxicity, immunotoxicity, blood toxicity, and oxidative damage. Apoptosis plays an important role in fluoride-induced toxicity of kidney, liver, spleen, thymus, bursa of Fabricius, cecal tonsil, and cultured cells. Here, apoptosis activated by high level of fluoride has been systematically reviewed, focusing on three pathways: mitochondrion-mediated, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress-mediated, and death receptor-mediated pathways. However, very limited reports are focused on the death receptor-mediated apoptosis pathways in the fluoride-induced apoptosis. Therefore, understanding and discovery of more pathways and molecular mechanisms of fluoride-induced apoptosis may contribute to designing measures for preventing fluoride toxicity.     

CO2 emission driving forces and corresponding mitigation strategies under low-carbon economy mode: evidence from China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

On account of the background of China’s “new normal” characterized by slower economic growth, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy status quo in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and empirically investigates the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and its various factors for China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using panel data econometric technique. We find evidence of existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Results also show that economic scale, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are crucial factors to promote CO₂ emissions. However, technological progress, especially the domestic independent research and development, plays a key role in CO₂ emissions abatement. Next, we further analyze the correlation between each subregion and various factors according to Grey Relation Analysis. Thereby, our findings provide important implications for policymakers in air pollution control and CO₂ emissions reduction for this region.     

Optimum ridge-to-furrow ratio in ridge-furrow mulching systems for improving water conservation in maize (Zea may L.) production

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Water-saving cultivation techniques have been attracting increased attention worldwide. Ridge-furrow mulching system (RFMS), as a prospective...     

中国耕地非农化压力时空格局的演变分析

社会经济和资源禀赋的区域差异导致耕地非农化压力表现出明显的空间异质性。开展耕地非农化压力测算并揭示其时空格局演变,是实现土地资源优化配置的基础。从经济因素、社会因素、产业结构和资源禀赋4个方面构建耕地非农化压力指数评价指标体系,采用熵值法计算各指标权重,继而计算1990~2014年中国31省的耕地非农化压力指数,并在此基础上开展了耕地非农化压力的时空格局分析。结果表明:(1)从空间格局分布来看,中国耕地非农化压力空间分布呈现明显的地理梯度,总体上呈现从东到西依次递减的态势。(2)从时间变化趋势来看,不同地区各省份之间的耕地非农化压力指数变化呈现多元化趋势。东部沿海地区,山东、浙江、江苏的耕地非农化压力指数处于上升阶段,上海、福建的压力指数变化趋势逐渐趋稳,广东的压力指数呈现下降趋势。中部地区,河南、河北、山西、江西的耕地非农化压力指数趋稳,陕西、湖北以及四川、重庆等西南地区省份的压力指数呈上升趋势。西部沿边3省(云南、西藏、新疆)的耕地非农化压力呈现了一致的下降趋势。(3)从时空格局结合来看,耕地非农化压力不同的省份其变化趋势呈现出截然不同的走向。在耕地非农化压力较大的地区,耕地非农化经历了从制度驱动向发展推动的阶段,经济增长的倒"U"型轨迹明显,经济增长与耕地非农化之间的关系逐渐脱钩。在耕地非农化压力居中或较小的地区,产业发展滞后,土地比较收益较低,耕地的社会保障作用、生态作用对耕地非农化的影响较大,从而增加了部分省份的耕地非农化压力。     

Evaluating anthropogenic N inputs to diverse lake basins: A case study of three Chinese lakes

The environmental degradation of lakes in China has become increasingly serious over the last 30 years and eutrophication resulting from enhanced nutrient inputs is considered a top threat. In this study, a quasi-mass balance method, net anthropogenic N inputs (NANI), was introduced to assess the human influence on N input into three typical Chinese lake basins. The resultant NANI exceeded 10 000 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹ for all three basins, and mineral fertilizers were generally the largest sources. However, rapid urbanization and shrinking agricultural production capability may significantly increase N inputs from food and feed imports. Higher percentages of NANI were observed to be exported at urban river outlets, suggesting the acceleration of NANI transfer to rivers by urbanization. Over the last decade, the N inputs have declined in the basins dominated by the fertilizer use but have increased in the basins dominated by the food and feed import. In the foreseeable future, urban areas may arise as new hotspots for nitrogen in China while fertilizer use may decline in importance in areas of high population density.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0638-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

移动床生物膜反应器—膜生物反应器深度处理模拟废水及工业园区综合废水

将移动床生物膜反应器(MBBR)与膜生物反应器(MBR)有机结合,研究了该MBBR—MBR串联系统在水力停留时间(HRT)为17.50、11.75h条件下的脱碳脱氮的效果以及对工业园区综合废水污染物的去除情况。结果表明:(1)MBBR—MBR串联系统脱碳脱氮的效果良好,HRT的改变对系统的去除效果有一定的影响,随着总HRT由17.50h变为11.75h,模拟废水中COD的去除效果降低,但氨氮、硝态氮和TN的去除效果基本不受影响。(2)MBBR—MBR串联系统处理印染工业园区综合废水也有较好的效果,当进水COD、氨氮分别为150~450、20~40mg/L时,出水COD、氨氮平均分别为53.1、1.8mg/L,MBBR—MBR串联系统对COD、氨氮的去除率平均分别为80.4%、93.1%,但系统对TN的去除效果不是很理想。     

基于CGE模型的环境灾害经济影响评估——以湖南雪灾为例

环境灾害(比如,气象灾害、荒漠化等)不仅仅造成直接损失(比如,厂房、设备破坏和粮食欠收等),而且会导致经济系统产业链中断,进而影响到区域经济的正常运行。本文以2008年南方雨雪冰冻灾害为例,基于CGE模型,评估交通中断对湖南省的间接经济影响。为刻画灾害冲击,CGE模型的改进包括:为反映灾害的区域性,将全国CGE模型降尺度为区域模型;为反映灾后应急情景,选择资本市场宏观闭合规则为资本在部门之间不流动;为反映货物周转量变化,在生产模块增加效率参数;为反映旅客周转量变化,选择劳动力宏观闭合规则为新古典闭合。研究表明:①对于重大环境灾害,间接经济损失甚至比直接损失大;②2008年雪灾引起的湖南省交通瘫痪,造成的间接经济损失为50.4亿元(以增加值表示),约占湖南省前两个月GDP的3%;③值得注意,由于产业之间相互关联,简单叠加各产业单独破坏造成的经济损失,往往夸大整个行业同时破坏造成的经济损失。     

Concentration and characterization of plutonium in soils of Hubei in central China

To study the Pu concentration and isotope ratio distributions present in China, the ^239+240Pu total activities and ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu atom ratios in core soil samples from Hubei Province in central China were investigated using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS). The activities ranged from 0.019 to 0.502 mBq g⁻¹ and the ^239+240Pu inventories of 45 and ∼55 Bq m⁻² agree well with that expected from global fallout. The ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu atom ratios in the soil ranged from 0.172 to 0.220. The ratios are similar to typical global fallout values. Hence, any close-in fallout contribution from the Chinese nuclear weapons tests, mainly conducted in the 1970s, must have either been negligible or had a similar ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratio to that of global fallout. The top 10 cm layer of the soil contributes ∼90% of the total inventory and the maximum concentrations appeared in the 2-4 cm or 4-6 cm layers. It is suggested that climatic conditions and organic content are the two main factors that affect the vertical migration of plutonium in soil.