Effects of Widespread Drought‐Induced Aspen Mortality on Understory Plants

Forest die‐off around the world is expected to increase in coming decades as temperature increases due to climate change. Forest die‐off will likely affect understory plant communities, which have substantial influence on regional biological diversity, ecosystem function, and land–atmosphere interactions, but how die‐off alters these plant communities is largely unknown. We examined changes in understory plant communities following a widespread, drought‐induced die‐off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) in the western United States. We assessed shrub and herbaceous cover and volume in quadrats in 55 plots located across a wide range of levels of aspen mortality. We measured species richness and composition of herbaceous plant communities by recording species presence and absence in 12 sets of paired (1 healthy, 1 dying) aspen plots. Although understory composition in healthy and dying stands was heterogeneous across the landscape, shrub abundance, cover, and volume were higher and abundance of herbaceous species, cover, and volume were lower in dying aspen stands. Shrub cover and volume increased from 2009 to 2011 in dying stands, which suggests that shrub growth and expansion is ongoing. Species richness of herbs declined by 23% in dying stands. Composition of herbs differed significantly between dying and healthy stands. Richness of non‐native species did not differ between stand types. The understory community in dying aspen stands was not similar to other shrub‐dominated plant communities in the region and may constitute a novel community. Our results suggest that changes in understory plant communities as forests die off could be a significant indirect effect of climate change on biological diversity and forest communities. Efectos de la Mortalidad Extensiva de Álamos Inducida por Sequía sobre Plantas del Sotobosque     

Measuring the impact of the pet trade on Indonesian birds

The trade in wild animals involves one‐third of the world's bird species and thousands of other vertebrate species. Although a few species are imperiled as a result of the wildlife trade, the lack of field studies makes it difficult to gauge how serious a threat it is to biodiversity. We used data on changes in bird abundances across space and time and information from trapper interviews to evaluate the effects of trapping wild birds for the pet trade in Sumatra, Indonesia. To analyze changes in bird abundance over time, we used data gathered over 14 years of repeated bird surveys in a 900‐ha forest in southern Sumatra. In northern Sumatra, we surveyed birds along a gradient of trapping accessibility, from the edge of roads to 5 km into the forest interior. We interviewed 49 bird trappers in northern Sumatra to learn which species they targeted and how far they went into the forest to trap. We used prices from Sumatran bird markets as a proxy for demand and, therefore, trapping pressure. Market price was a significant predictor of species declines over time in southern Sumatra (e.g., given a market price increase of approximately $50, the log change in abundance per year decreased by 0.06 on average). This result indicates a link between the market‐based pet trade and community‐wide species declines. In northern Sumatra, price and change in abundance were not related to remoteness (distance from the nearest road). However, based on our field surveys, high‐value species were rare or absent across this region. The median maximum distance trappers went into the forest each day was 5.0 km. This suggests that trapping has depleted bird populations across our remoteness gradient. We found that less than half of Sumatra's remaining forests are >5 km from a major road. Our results suggest that trapping for the pet trade threatens birds in Sumatra. Given the popularity of pet birds across Southeast Asia, additional studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and magnitude of the threat posed by the pet trade.     

Improving Habitat Models and Their Utility in Koala Conservation

Abstract: Models of what makes good koala habitat are a key to developing effective conservation policy and practices. Koala habitat models are based on (1) ecological studies of high-density koala populations in limited areas, (2) physiological studies of koala nutrition and characteristics of food plants, and (3) surveys of koala geographic distribution and biophysical features of forests and woodlands. The role of models in koala conservation varies because legislators, decisionmakers, land managers, and citizens have different expectations and uses for models. Although current habitat models address many of these needs, overall they lack sufficient certainty and authority to resolve disputes and develop policy. Unpublished and inadequately peer-reviewed data and models add to misinterpretation and argument. Improvements are needed in the decision-making process to increase the constructive involvement of all interest groups and to focus on the koala conservation problem, thereby reducing use of the popular media and courts of law to achieve objectives.     

Mass Differences among Male Mangabey Monkeys Inhabiting Logged and Unlogged Forest Compartments

Abstract: Remedies for reduction in primate numbers following rainforest habitat disturbance must incorporate understanding of how disturbance affects population biology. Between July 1996 and July 1998, I captured 31 adult male grey cheeked mangabeys (  Lophocebus albigena) from groups occupying logged and unlogged forest in Kibale National Park, Uganda. Captured males were weighed, measured, fitted with radiocollars, and radiotracked three to five times a week. Males from groups in the unlogged forest were significantly heavier than males from the logged forest. Males that immigrated into the study groups were significantly lighter than resident males in unlogged forest, but they did not differ in mass from males in logged forest. I tested hypotheses that these differences were due to differences in age, skeletal size, and tissue mass. Results support the hypothesis that differences are due to differences in tissue mass. Results of further tests showed that differences in tissue mass were explained more by differences in habitat type than by rates of male turnover. There was no evidence to suggest that differences in tissue mass were related to differences in costs of travel, crowding, or seasonal variation in habitat quality. My results suggest that selective logging may affect primate biomass, although these changes may or may not be reflected in estimates of primate density.     

Amazonian Tree Mortality during the 1997 El Niño Drought

Abstract: In 1997, the Amazon Basin experienced an exceptionally severe El Niño drought. We assessed effects of this rare event on mortality rates of trees in intact rain forest based on data from permanent plots. Long-term (5- to 13-year) mortality rates averaged only 1.12% per year prior to the drought. During the drought year, annual mortality jumped to 1.91% but abruptly fell back to 1.23% in the year following El Niño. Trees dying during the drought did not differ significantly in size or species composition from those that died previously, and there was no detectable effect of soil texture on mortality rates. These results suggest that intact Amazonian rainforests are relatively resistant to severe El Niño events.     

Modeling misidentification errors that result from use of genetic tags in capture–recapture studies

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) such as DNA fingerprints (genetic tags) are used to identify individual animals. For example, when misidentification leads to multiple identities being assigned to an animal, traditional estimators tend to overestimate population size. Accounting for misidentification in capture–recapture models requires detailed understanding of the mechanism. Using genetic tags as an example, we outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies when individual identification is based on natural tags that are consistent over time (non-evolving natural tags). We first assume a single sample is obtained per animal for each capture event, and then generalize to the case where multiple samples (such as hair or scat samples) are collected per animal per capture occasion. We introduce methods for estimating population size and, using a simulation study, we show that our new estimators perform well for cases with moderately high capture probabilities or high misidentification rates. In contrast, conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored.     

Designing and Managing the San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study

The field measurement phase of the San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study, which was conducted in the summer of 1990, was the largest and most sophisticated study of its kind ever conducted in this country. The San Joaquin Valley has the nation’s second worst overall air quality problem and is using the study results to conduct regional modeling to refine its control strategies. The study began in 1985 and will continue into the mid-1990s. The origins of the study, and the manner in which it is being funded and administered, reflect a unique and highly successful collaboration among several levels of government and the private sector. The temporary organizational structure formed to manage the study sets an interesting precedent for how political-level leaders can work effectively with the scientific community to conduct a long term technical study.