NitroGenius:氮决策支持系统--荷兰氮污染问题最佳解决方案的一个游戏模拟实验

利用计算机模拟的方法,我们为第二届国际氮会议研制开发了一个游戏形式的氮决策支持系统.研制这一系统的目的是:①使科学工作者和决策者们都能认识到荷兰氮污染问题的复杂性,因为荷兰是一个农业、工业和运输业活动密集的区域;②探索以最低的社会经济代价解决氮污染的最佳方案.NitroGenius由有关时空范围内的氮流动模型组成,其中包括氨和氮氧化合物的释放及其对地表水和地下水的污染.NitroGenius中还包括了一个经济模型,它描述了各个重要经济部门之间的关系,以及不同氮排放控制措施对国民生产总值(GDP)、失业率、能源消耗和环境的影响.在第二次国际氮会议期间,大约有50个研究组对NitroGenius进行了测试,结果表明,如果认真进行计划并选择适当的治理措施,就能够以适当的代价解决荷兰的氮污染问题.     

Amorphous and condensed organic matter domains: the effect of persulfate oxidation on the composition of soil/sediment organic matter

The composition of amorphous and condensed soil/sediment organic matter (SOM) domains was investigated for one soil sample and four sediment samples. These samples were oxidized with persulfate to remove amorphous SOM, before and after which the composition of SOM was studied by thermogravimetric analysis, pyrolysis-GC/MS, and cross polarization magic angle spinning 13C-NMR. Comparison of the SOM composition before and after oxidation showed that condensed SOM was more thermostable and less polar than amorphous SOM. Condensed SOM was relatively low in O-alkyl C and carboxyl C and it was likely to contain only small amounts of labile organic components (carbohydrates, peptides, fatty acids). Apart from these general characteristics, the composition of the condensed and amorphous domains appeared to be highly dependent on the origin and nature of the SOM investigated. Condensed domains in relatively undecomposed SOM were enriched in aliphatic C, whereas condensed domains in relatively weathered SOM were enriched in aromatic C. Altogether, the compositional changes upon persulfate oxidation were similar to the compositional changes upon humification, which supports the idea that weathered SOM is more condensed than the original material.     

Distribution and dynamics of larval populations of Anopheles messeae and A. atroparvus in the delta of the rivers Rhine and Meuse,The Netherlands

The distribution and ecology of mosquitoes of the Anopheles maculipennis complex were studied in the delta of the rivers Rhine and Meuse in the southwest of The Netherlands. The study area was previously malarious, with A. atroparvus being the only vector. 125 potential aquatic habitats of A. maculipennis were sampled, of which 47 (37.6%) contained larvae of this species complex. Larval densities varied from 7.4-325.93 larvae m-2. There was no correlation between chlorinity (@1000) of the water and presence and/or density of larvae. The presence of A. maculipennis was not associated with one particular aquatic floristic habitat, although larvae were often found together with floating algae (Enteromorpha spp.). Larvae were not found in areas experiencing tidal flooding. A newly developed PCR method was used for identification of the mosquito sibling species. Of 150 larvae examined, only 4 were identified as A. atroparvus. All other larvae examined were A. messeae. Adult mosquitoes were identified as A. messeae and 30 wild-caught mosquitoes had fed on domestic animals. Because most anophelines found in 1999 were A. messeae, it is concluded that the study area has undergone a dramatic ecological change since the previous anopheline investigations in 1935, causing the near extinction of A. atroparvus. This species was the only malaria vector in The Netherlands and therefore it is not expected that malaria can return to its former endemic status in the coastal areas of The Netherlands.     

Prediction of vehicle crashes by drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations in Korea using a zero-inflated negative binomial model

Aims: Traffic safety is a significant public health challenge, and vehicle crashes account for the majority of injuries. This study aims to identify whether drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations may predict vehicle crashes in Korea.

Methods: A total of 500,000 drivers were randomly selected from the 11.6 million driver records of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea. Records of traffic crashes were obtained from the archives of the Korea Insurance Development Institute. After matching the past violation history for the period 2004–2005 with the number of crashes in year 2006, a total of 488,139 observations were used for the analysis. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to determine the incident risk ratio (IRR) of vehicle crashes by past violations of individual drivers. The included covariates were driver's age, gender, district of residence, vehicle choice, and driving experience.

Results: Drivers violating (1) a hit-and-run or drunk driving regulation at least once and (2) a signal, central line, or speed regulation more than once had a higher risk of a vehicle crash with respective IRRs of 1.06 and 1.15. Furthermore, female gender, a younger age, fewer years of driving experience, and middle-sized vehicles were all significantly associated with a higher likelihood of vehicle crashes.

Conclusions: Drivers' demographic characteristics and past traffic violations could predict vehicle crashes in Korea. Greater resources should be assigned to the provision of traffic safety education programs for the high-risk driver groups.     

Accelerating the deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies by strengthening the innovation system

In order to take up the twin challenge of reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, while meeting a growing energy demand, the potential deployment of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies is attracting a growing interest of policy makers around the world. In this study we evaluate and compare national approaches towards the development of CCS in the United States, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, and Australia. The analysis is done by applying the functions of innovation systems approach. This approach posits that new technology is developed, demonstrated and deployed in the context of a technological innovation system. The performance assessment of the CCS innovation system shows that the extensive knowledge base and knowledge networks, which have been accumulated over the past years, have not yet been utilized by entrepreneurs to explore the market for integrated CCS concepts linked to power generation. This indicates that the build-up of the innovation system has entered a critical phase that is decisive for a further thriving development of CCS. In order to move the CCS innovation system through this present difficult episode and deploy more advanced CCS concepts at a larger scale; it is necessary to direct policy initiatives at the identified weak system functions, i.e. entrepreneurial activity, market creation and the mobilization of resources. Moreover, in some specific countries it is needed to provide more regulatory guidance and improve the legitimacy for the technology. We discuss how policy makers and technology managers can use these insights to develop a coherent policy strategy that would accelerate the deployment of CCS.     

联合国建议的固体氧化物燃烧测试方法的研究

由于日本消防法中固体氧化物的燃烧试验方法,与联合国黄皮书中所建议的试验方法有所不同,在实际应用中经常出现矛盾.因此,本文对其中的一些不同之处进行了重新的研究考察.并与日本海事检定协会和代表联合国标准测试方法的荷兰应用科学研究组织进行合作,对比研究了联合国建议的关于固体氧化物燃烧试验的方法.并就其中发现的问题提出了相应的改进意见.具体有以下4方面的措施:(1)纤维素种类对于燃烧时间的影响;(2)环境湿度及纤维素含水量对燃烧时间的影响;(3)导火线材料与导火线破裂方式出现的问题;(4)联合国建议中的举例数据.     

Pathways towards large-scale implementation of CO2 capture and storage: A case study for the Netherlands

We sketch four possible pathways how carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) (r)evolution may occur in the Netherlands, after which the implications in terms of CO₂ stored and avoided, costs and infrastructural requirements are quantified. CCS may play a significant role in decarbonising the Dutch energy and industrial sector, which currently emits nearly 100 Mt CO₂/year. We found that 15 Mt CO₂ could be avoided annually by 2020, provided some of the larger gas fields that become available the coming decade could be used for CO₂ storage. Halfway this century, the mitigation potential of CCS in the power sector, industry and transport fuel production is estimated at maximally 80–110 Mt CO₂/year, of which 60–80 Mt CO₂/year may be avoided at costs between 15 and 40 €/t CO₂, including transport and storage. Avoiding 30–60 Mt CO₂/year by means of CCS is considered realistic given the storage potential represented by Dutch gas fields, although it requires planning to assure that domestic storage capacity could be used for CO₂ storage. In an aggressive climate policy, avoiding another 50 Mt CO₂/year may be possible provided that nearly all capture opportunities that occur are taken. Storing such large amounts of CO₂ would only be possible if the Groningen gas field or large reservoirs in the British or Norwegian part of the North Sea will become available.     

Probabilistic intake assessment of multiple compounds as a tool to quantify the nutritional-toxicological conflict related to seafood consumption

Seafood represents a natural source of valuable nutrients (e.g., long chain omega-3 poly-unsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFAs), vitamin D, and iodine), but the favourable health perception is troubled by the presence of contaminants (e.g., PCBs, dioxin-like compounds, and (methyl) mercury (MeHg)). This dualism forms the basis for an important public health conflict. The objective of this study was to calculate and evaluate the simultaneous intake of multiple beneficial and harmful compounds (LC n-3 PUFAs, vitamin D, iodine, (Me)Hg, PCBs, and dioxin-like compounds) via seafood consumption in Belgium. A methodology and a software module were developed for executing probabilistic assessments of the simultaneous intake of multiple compounds leading to better insight in the problematic nature of food items involving both health benefits and risks. The simulations concerning seafood consumption in Belgium predicted that, as far as only seafood consumption is concerned, the considered populations do not reach a sufficiently high intake for the three nutrients considered (LC n-3 PUFAs, vitamin D, and iodine). Regarding the contaminants, (Me)Hg contamination of seafood on the Belgian market does not seem to be an issue of major toxicological concern. In contrast, for dioxin-like compounds the tolerable daily intake is reached by people with high seafood consumption.     

Non-destructive pollution exposure assessment in the European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus): IV. Hair versus soil analysis in exposure and risk assessment of organochlorine compounds

Few ecotoxicological studies on mammals use non-destructive methodologies, despite the growing ethical concern over the use of destructive sampling methods. In the present study we assessed exposure of hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethanes (DDTs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), by investigating concentrations of these compounds in soils and hedgehog hair from seven study sites around the urban area of Antwerp, Belgium. No relationships were observed between organochlorine compound concentrations in soils and hair from the different study areas. Furthermore, the individual variation of contamination levels in hair within study sites was high, especially for HCHs and HCB, and hair and soil had different relative profiles for PCBs, DDTs and HCHs. Our results show that concentrations of organochlorine compounds in soils alone are not predictive of the risk of these pollutants to hedgehogs and that tissue analyses are preferred to soil analyses in exposure and risk assessment studies.