事故预测方法研究述评

将事故预测方法归纳为情景分析法、回归预测法、时间预测法、马尔可夫链状预测法、灰色预测法和非线性预测法6大类,并进行分析和比较.结果表明:1)目前的预测方法大多针对各自行业部门,因此采用自身相适应的预测方法和提高预测精度是事故预测的关键;2)剔除随机性和偶然性,提取异常点和异质性是工业事故进行预测建模的依据;3)系统安全是一个动态随机的非线性过程,应将定性与定量、线性与非线性、静态与动态预测方法相结合,进行组合预测才有可能实现最优预测;4)基于状态预测的事故优生理念,是未来事故预测理论的发展趋势.     

HAN阻隔防爆模型研究

通过合理简化,利用多方气体状态方程,分别建立油品储运容器内可燃混合气体定容爆炸模型和装设阻隔防爆材料的油品储运容器内可燃混合气体爆炸模型,获得了阻隔防爆性能测试装置的燃爆容器抗爆设计限值,以及其在HAN阻隔防爆测试中燃爆容器试爆压力量级的控制下限值,同时,还给出HAN工程应用中容器留空率的计算方法,具有实际指导意义。     

强化特种设备及作业人员的安全管理是维系化工企业安全生产的关键

特种设备安全工程是安全管理工程的一个分支,也是企业管理工程的一个重要组成部分。特种设备安全工程主要包括承压设备与起重设备安全管理领域所涉及到的设计、制造、使用、维护、检修、监测、事故调查及人员培训教育等方面的内容。特种设备安全状况及特种作业人员的安全技术素质与企业的安全生产密切相关,提高设备本质安全和作业人员的安全意识与安全操作技能是企业安全管理工作中必不可少的内容。     

基于临水区域化工园区的整体安全研究

针对临水区域化工园区的生产特点及在整体安全方面存在的普遍问题,提出在临水区域化工园区内要进行合理布局,做到功能分区明确;同时需建立园区安全生产管理、监测预警及应急处置系统,主要是由固定危险源和移动危险源动态安全管理子系统、安全生产监测预警系统、突发事故应急处置平台等所组成;坚持安全监控信息化与标准化,对化工园区的整体安全性的提高将发挥巨大的作用,为建设"平安园区"打下坚实的基础。     

可变模糊评价法在洪涝灾情评价中的应用

灾情评价实质上是一个模式识别问题.以往的灾情评价模型,虽解决了各单项指标灾情等级评估结果的不相容问题,但往往不能检验所给结果的准确性.基于可变模糊集理论,采用可变模糊评价模型可以科学、合理地确定样本指标对各级指标标准区间的相对隶属度和相对隶属函数,并且能够通过变换参数(α与P)变化模型进行评价.通过对多个评价结果进行比较分析,可以合理地确定出样本的评价等级.同时,由于该模型确定的灾级是连续的实数值,因而提高了灾情等级评价的灾级分辨率.最后将该方法应用于河南省洪涝灾情的综合评价中.应用实例表明,该模型计算简便,评价结果可信度高,可推广应用到其它灾情等级评估中.     

中国自然保护区可持续管理模式探讨——伦敦自然保护区管理模式借鉴

近年来,世界各地自然保护区迅速发展,如何有效持续地管理这些自然保护区成为一个重要的问题。文章分析了我国自然保护区现有管理模式的特点与存在的问题,简要介绍了伦敦自然保护区的管理模式现状,根据我国的实际情况,笔者认为中国的自然保护区应采用强制式和完全参与合作式相结合的管理模式,并提出了几点管理模式的改革建议。     

Dissipation and residue of triforine in strawberry and soil

Two independent field trials were performed in Guangdong and Hubei, China in 2011 to investigate the dissipation and residue levels of triforine in strawberry and soil. A fast and simple method using gas chromatography with electron capture detector was developed and validated to determine triforine levels in strawberry and soil. The average recovery of triforine in strawberry ranged from 87.46 to 104.32 % with a relative standard deviation (RSD) of 0.72 to 4.54 %; that in soil ranged from 83.82 to 103.01 % with an RSD of 3.89 to 4.36 %. The limit of quantification of the proposed method was 0.01 mg/kg for both strawberry and soil. The results suggest that the triforine dissipation curves followed the first-order kinetic. The half-lives of triforine in strawberry from Guangdong and Hubei were 3.58 and 4.42 days, respectively; those in soil were 3.53 and 4.10 days, respectively. The terminal residues of triforine in strawberry ranged from 0.032 to 0.264 mg/kg at preharvest intervals of 0.5, 1, and 3 days. These values are lower than the maximum residue limit of 1 mg/kg in strawberry set by the Codex Alimentarius Commission.     

Risk assessment of trace elements in cultured freshwater fishes from Jiangxi province,China

The levels of trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) in eight species of cultured freshwater fishes from Jiangxi province were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy. All the studied trace element levels in fish muscles from Jiangxi province did not exceed Chinese national standard and European Union standard, and they were often lower than previous studies. The calculated target hazard quotient values for all the studied trace elements in fish samples were much less than 1, suggesting that the studied trace elements in fish muscles from Jiangxi province had not pose obvious health hazards to consumers. As and Cd concentrations in northern snakehead were much higher than that in other fishes, demonstrating that this fish species could be valuable as a bioindicator of As and Cd in environmental surveys. In addition, the highest concentrations of Fe, Zn, and moderate contents of other essential trace elements in crucian carp indicated that crucian carp could be a good nutrient source of essential trace elements for human health.