溢油胁迫下孔石莼碳氮稳定同位素的变化

为了研究溢油对海岸潮间带重要的大型绿藻孔石莼（Ulva Pertusa）的影响,本文探究了在180#燃料油的原油分散液（WAF）胁迫下,孔石莼的生长速率、叶绿素a以及碳氮稳定同位素的变化。在低WAF浓度（1.43 mg/L、2.87 mg/L和4.30 mg/L）胁迫下,对孔石莼的生长具有促进作用,生长速率均高于对照组,同时叶绿素a和碳氮稳定同位素均呈现上升的趋势;而高浓度WAF（5.72 mg/L和7.17 mg/L）会抑制藻类生长,导致生长速率低于对照组,而叶绿素a含量却高于对照组,孔石莼的δ15N和δ13C相比对照组偏负。对于孔石莼来说,C、N稳定同位素变化的趋势比叶绿素a更明显,这表明在溢油胁迫下,孔石莼的C、N稳定同位素能够更好更快速地评价溢油胁迫毒性大小,因此可以作为海洋环境监测和评价的一种新手段。     

基于在线监测的江河入海径流通量计算方法研究与应用——以辽河口为例

随着入海流量在线监测技术的兴起,本文从流量在线监测技术原理和步骤出发,对入海流量在线监测的主要技术环节进行了梳理,给出了综合、全面的江河入海径流通量流程化计算方案,并将其应用到了辽河入海径流通量计算实例中。本文的研究为江河污染物排海量的准确估算和入海流量在线监测技术的推广提供了支持。     

基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。     

小流域综合治理新设计研究——猪沼果模式

近年来,小流域综合治理的主旨思想改变了,其工作重心在于巩固和发展治理开发的成果,提升综合治理的科技含量,增加治理带来的经济效益。于是将小流域的治理与生产联系起来成为了当前科研人员的研究方向。文章对目前部分地区大力推广的"猪-沼-果"模式在小流域治理方面的概念、发展及综合效益等方面做了一些综述。总的来说,猪沼果模式能够增加农村的能源,增加农民收入,并保护绿植,促进小流域治理。     

Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Mathematical balance models for monitoring the state of Lake Baikal

The global cycles of man-produced pollutants entering the natural environment are reflected in changes of pollutant cycles, even in background regions.The system of mathematical balance simulation models of inorganic pollutant distribution and circulation (some heavy metals and pesticides included in the priority list for integrated background monitoring) has been developed for the Lake Baikal drainage basin. The system consists of the following units: (1) inventory and classification of regional sources of pollutants entering the atmosphere, natural waters and soils; (2) computation of the global atmospheric transfer and depositions; (3) regional spreading with atmospheric fluxes and deposition onto the underlying surfaces; (4) transport with waterflows feeding Lake Baikal; (5) transport with the lake currents and balance in the lake.The models developed have enabled improvement of existing programmes and systems of observations, in particular to substantiate the large-scale snow sampling and analysis network, and to develop the programme of integrated surveys of the state of Lake Baikal. Since 1981 these actions have been included in the operational network observations within the Lake Baikal Monitoring System.