单体滑坡灾害风险预测

以重庆市万州区农机技校滑坡为例,讨论了单体滑坡灾害的风险预测方法。提出采用Monte-Carlo方法预测滑坡发生的概率,利用能量守恒原理和谢德格尔公式推算滑程;结合滑坡裂缝的展布方位,预测出滑坡灾害发生后的影响范围;根据承灾体自身特点和相对于滑坡所处的位置,确定出滑坡灾害影响范围内承灾体的易损性;利用GIS对空间数据的图形叠加功能,将滑坡危险性和灾害易损性叠加,并在考虑库区水位动态变化的基础上,动态预测滑坡灾害导致的经济损失,定量预测滑坡灾害风险大小。结果表明,该滑坡在坝前145m水位和50年一遇暴雨工况下可能的经济损失值最大为10260万元;而在滑坡危险性最大的工况下,滑坡灾害风险不一定最大。所得结果可为滑坡灾害防治工程或土地规划立项提供依据,使政府决策部门在防灾减灾工作中更有针对性。     

建筑火灾烟流运动特性网络模型的求解收敛性

分析了运用网络模型模拟建筑火灾烟流的计算过程,通过总结影响网络模型求解精度及收敛性的关键因素,改进了原烟流预测软件对建筑物各开口的净、正、负质量流量的算法。改进后的模型消除了振荡效应,模拟结果曲线平滑稳定,实现了运用网络模型对多室建筑物烟流特性的模拟计算。     

火灾高温下CFRP加固钢筋混凝土梁温度场分析

综合国外CFRP加固混凝土结构抗火试验相关研究,总结了CFRP的高温热工性能参数。用ANSYS软件对火灾高温下不同情况(无防火保护层和有防火保护层)和不同工况(防火涂料涂抹形式)下CFRP加固后的钢筋混凝土梁进行了温度场数值模拟研究。结果表明,防火涂料厚40 mm时,梁耐火极限可达2.5小时以上,且底面和两侧面全面涂抹防火涂料的防火效果最好。本文研究有助于进一步深入认识CFRP加固钢筋混凝土结构在高温下的力学性能和耐火极限,且对CFRP加固后的结构防火设计具有一定的指导意义。     

隐伏断裂的地气测量及其意义

传统概念的地气测量是指地下上升到地表并扩散到大气空间的天然状态气体 ,如CO2 、CH4 、Rn、Hg、H2 等。近十多年的研究证实地气还包含着新的内涵 ,即地壳岩石以及地表土壤中还存着痕量的金属与非金属气体 ,通过捕集这些气体 ,可以获得更多的深部地质构造、矿床信息。据报导 ,国内外的研究主要是在已知矿床上做的正演研究。本文是在已知隐伏断层构造上方地表 ,试验金属与非金属地气存在的可能性。     

Sample storage and extraction efficiencies in determination of polycyclic and nitro musks in sewage sludge

Analytical technology is continuously improving, developing better methods for isolating and concentrating trace compounds in environmental samples. Polycyclic and nitro musks (PNMs) are one group of emerging trace compounds detected in municipal wastewater. Differences in sample storage, preparation, and extraction methods for their measurement have led to variability in results. We analyzed 11 PNMs by GC/MS and compared the results of different storage times and extraction methods (supercritical fluid (SFE) or microwave-assisted (MAE)) for 202 samples of primary sludge, waste activated sludge (WAS), raw sludge, and aerobically/anaerobically digested biosolids collected from Canadian municipal wastewater treatment plants. Sixty-three air-dried samples were extracted by SFE, and 139 air-dried, centrifuged, or filtered samples were extracted by MAE. The mean surrogate recoveries were 89% (standard deviation (SD)=11%) for d(10)-anthracene by SFE and 88% (SD=14%) for d(10)-phenanthrene by MAE. Storage study results showed that PNM concentrations changed by a mean of 7% and 9% for primary sludge and WAS respectively after four weeks and decreased up to 25% after 13.5 months of storage in amber glass containers at -18 degrees C. Air-drying of sludge at room temperature caused losses of about 50% of PNM concentrations compared to centrifugation. The proportions of PNMs present in the liquid phase of sludge samples were less than 5% compared to proportions in the sludge solids. The most complete liquid-solid separation was achieved by filtration of frozen/thawed sludge samples, producing a liquid phase that contained less than 1% of the total musk content of the sample.     

Influence of start-up on PCDD/F emission of incinerators

This study aims to evaluate the influence of start-up on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) concentration in the stack flue gas of incinerators and its contributing PCDD/F emission. The PCDD/F emission of the first sample among three consecutive stack flue gas samples of five intermittent incinerators, which sampled at a stable combustion condition after start-up, is 2-3 times higher than the mean of the others. For verifying the PCDD/F characteristics of incinerators during start-up, one continuous MSWI was investigated for two years. The elevated PCDD/F emissions of the MSWI during start-up could reach 96.9 ng I-TEQN m(-3) and still maintained a high PCDD/F emission (40 times higher than the Taiwan emission limit) even 18 h after the injection of activated carbon, indicating the memory effect. Taking the MSWI for example, which consists of four incinerators, the estimated annual PCDD/F emission from normal operational conditions was 0.112 g I-TEQ. However, one start-up procedure can generate approximately 60% of the PCDD/F emissions for one whole year of normal operations. And the PCDD/F emission, which is the result of the start-ups of four incinerators, was at least two times larger than that of a whole year's normal operations, without consideration for the PCDD/F emission contributed by the long lasting memory effect.     

Bioavailability to grains of rice of aged and fresh DDD and DDE in soils

DDT had been widely used around the world before 1980s and is still under production and use for non-agricultural purposes in China. Because of their special physicochemical properties, p,p'-DDT and its main metabolites, p,p'-DDD and p,p'-DDE, accumulated and persisted in the environment, presenting potential menace on biota. A green-house study was conducted to determine the bioavailability of p,p'-DDD and p,p'-DDE to grains of rice and the influences of traditional Chinese farming practices on their bioaccumulation. Paddy rice and dry rice were grown in submerged paddy soils and non-submerged upland soils, respectively. Two types of soil, Hydragric Anthrosols (An) and Hydragric Acrisols (Ac), were employed. Bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of DDE ranged from 0.67 for rice grown in non-submerged An to 0.84 in submerged An in the control group, whilst BAFs were all below 0.04 in experimental groups. BAFs of DDD varied from 1.39 for submerged An to 2.26 for submerged Ac in original soils. In contrast, BAFs were between 0.05 for non-submerged Ac and 0.08 for submerged An in DDD-contaminated soils. Flooding seemed to have two contradictory effects on the DDE/DDD accumulation by rice: on one hand, it made the pollutants more mobile and bioavailable; while on the other hand, it enhanced the degradation and binding of POPs. Adding rice straw to the soils protected DDE from being taken up yet promoted DDD accumulation by rice. Furthermore, the distinct inorganic component of the soils might also play an important role in the environmental activities of POPs.     

Life cycle assessment of fuel selection for power generation in Taiwan

Life cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to performance data from 1997-2002 to evaluate the environmental impacts of the energy input, airborne emission, waterborne emission, and solid waste inventories for Taiwan's electric power plants. Eco-indicator 95 was used to compare the differences among the generation processes and fuel purification. To better understand the environmental trends related to Taiwan's electric power industry, three fuel scenarios were selected for LCA system analysis. Results indicate that there are differences in characteristic environmental impact among the 13 power plants. Scenario simulation provided a basis for minimizing environmental impacts from fuel selection targets. Fuel selection priority should be a gas-fired combined cycle substituted for a coal-fired steam turbine to be more environmentally friendly, particularly in the areas of the greenhouse effect, acidification, winter smog, and solid waste. Furthermore, based purely on economic and environmental criteria, it is recommended that the gas-fired combined cycle be substituted for the oil-fired steam turbine.     

Short-term effects of gaseous pollutants on cause-specific mortality in Wuhan, China

In Asia, limited studies have been published on the association between daily mortality and gaseous pollutants of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Our previous studies in Wuhan, China, demonstrated long-term air pollution effects. However, no study has been conducted to determine mortality effects of air pollution in this region. This study was to determine the acute mortality effects of the gaseous pollutants in Wuhan, a city with 7.5 million permanent residents during the period from 2000 to 2004. There are approximately 4.5 million residents in Wuhan who live in the city's core area of 201 km2, where air pollution levels are highest, and pollution ranges are wider than the majority of the cities in the published literature. We used the generalized additive model to analyze pollution, mortality, and covariate data. We found consistent NO2 effects on mortality with the strongest effects on the same day. Every 10-microg/m3 increase in NO2 daily concentration on the same day was associated with an increase in nonaccidental (1.43%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87-1.99%), cardiovascular (1.65%; 95% CI: 0.87-2.45%), stroke (1.49%; 95% CI: 0.56-2.43%), cardiac (1.77%; 95% CI: 0.44-3.12%), respiratory (2.23%; 95% CI: 0.52-3.96%), and cardiopulmonary mortality (1.60%; 95% CI: 0.85-2.35%). These effects were stronger among the elderly than among the young. Formal examination of exposure-response curves suggests no-threshold linear relationships between daily mortality and NO2, where the NO2 concentrations ranged from 19.2 to 127.4 microg/m3. SO2 and O3 were not associated with daily mortality. The exposure-response relationships demonstrated heterogeneity, with some curves showing nonlinear relationships for SO2 and O3. We conclude that there is consistent evidence of acute effects of NO2 on mortality and suggest that a no-threshold linear relationship exists between NO2 and mortality.     

Effects of pH, organic acids, and competitive cations on mercury desorption in soils

The effects of pH, organic acids, and competitive cations on Hg(2+) desorption were studied. Three representative soils for rice production in China, locally referred to as a yellowish red soil (YRS), purplish clayey soil (PCS), and silty loam soil (SLS) and classified as Gleyi-Stagnic Anthrosols in FAO/UNESCO nomenclature, were, respectively, collected from Jiaxin County, Deqing County, and Xiasha District of Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province. Most of the added Hg(2+) was adsorbed at low initial concentrations (<2 mg l(-1)). Desorption of the adsorbed Hg(2+) in 0.01M KCl (simulating soil solution) was minimal, but was significantly enhanced by the change of pH, and the presence of organic acids or competitive cations. The desorption of Hg(2+) in the soils decreased with pH from 3.0 to 5.0, leveled off at pH 5.0-8.0, but increased with pH from 7.0 to 9.0. The presence of organic ligands enhanced Hg(2+) desorption in the soils except for YRS, in which the addition of tartaric, malic, or oxalic acid reduced Hg(2+) desorption at low concentrations (<10(-4)M), but Hg(2+) desorption generally increased with organic acid concentration. Citric acid was most effective in increasing Hg(2+) desorption, followed by tartaric acid and malic acid; and oxalic acid was the least effective. Desorption of adsorbed Hg(2+) increased with increasing concentrations of added Cu(2+) or Zn(2+). Applied Cu(2+) increased Hg(2+) desorption more than Zn(2+) at the same loading rate. CAPSULE: The effects of organic acids and competitive cations on Hg desorption in soil-water system are related to their concentrations, basic chemical properties, and soil properties.