Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models.

Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting population change and for managing rare species, but they are less useful for predicting extinction risk in the face of changing environmental conditions. Deterministic models provide point estimates of lambda, the finite rate of increase, as well as measures of matrix sensitivity and elasticity. Stationary matrix models can be used to estimate extinction risk in a variable environment, but they assume that the matrix elements are randomly sampled from a stationary (i.e., non-changing) distribution. Here we outline a method for using nonstationary matrix models to construct realistic forecasts of population fluctuation in changing environments. Our method requires three pieces of data: (1) field estimates of transition matrix elements, (2) experimental data on the demographic responses of populations to altered environmental conditions, and (3) forecasting data on environmental drivers. These three pieces of data are combined to generate a series of sequential transition matrices that emulate a pattern of long-term change in environmental drivers. Realistic estimates of population persistence and extinction risk can be derived from stochastic permutations of such a model. We illustrate the steps of this analysis with data from two populations of Sarracenia purpurea growing in northern New England. Sarracenia purpurea is a perennial carnivorous plant that is potentially at risk of local extinction because of increased nitrogen deposition. Long-term monitoring records or models of environmental change can be used to generate time series of driver variables under different scenarios of changing environments. Both manipulative and natural experiments can be used to construct a linking function that describes how matrix parameters change as a function of the environmental driver. This synthetic modeling approach provides quantitative estimates of extinction probability that have an explicit mechanistic basis.     

A review of the military approach to urban environmental deterioration in Nigeria

The concern of this paper is a review of the urban environmental degradation and the current approach by the military (environmental task force) in solving the problem. It is based on the experience of a few states in Nigeria. The paper proposes a comprehensive urban planning approach which should be integrated with an awareness campaign.     

EXPERIMENTAL VERIFICATION OF MULTICOMPONENT GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION PREDICTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Recent advances in mass transport modeling have made possible computation of the theoretical consequences of intricate multicomponent species interactions during ground water contamination events. Predictions such as strong chromatographic effects and induced downstream precipitations may have considerable impact on environmental analysis and regulation. Results of laboratory attempts to verify theoretical multicomponent transport predictions are discussed. Evidence presented here indicates that natural variability of soil properties make such verifications difficult. Although species interactions are easily confirmed, dramatic effects often exist only within small mathematical windows in strongly variable coefficient sets. Currently, the ability to generate multicomponent predictions apparently exceeds the ability to quantify the necessary, presumably deterministic, information required for real soils.     

Organic compounds and trace metals of anthropogenic origin in sediments from Montego Bay,Jamaica: assessment of sources and distribution pathways

Surface sediments throughout Montego Bay, Jamaica were collected in 1995 and analyzed for their trace metal and trace organic contaminant content. A variety of trace metals, petroleum hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, coprostanol as well as chlorinated hydrocarbons such as pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls were detected and provide evidence for several anthropogenic inputs to the bay. Two main sources of these chemicals are the Montego River and the North Gully, the latter being more significant. Particle-associated pollutants were found to be distributed along the Montego River plume, as well as being transported by the prevailing water currents to the South-Western sections of the bay, probably through re-suspension of enriched fine sediments from the North Gully outfall area.     

Particulate matter pollution in the coal-producing regions of the Appalachian Mountains: Integrated ground-based measurements and satellite analysis

This study integrates the relationship between measured surface concentrations of particulate matter 10 μm or less in diameter (PM₁₀), satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD), and meteorology in Roda, Virginia, during 2008. A multiple regression model was developed to predict the concentrations of particles 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM_2.5) at an additional location in the Appalachia region, Bristol, TN. The model was developed by combining AOD retrievals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the EOS Terra and Aqua Satellites with the surface meteorological observations. The multiple regression model predicted PM_2.5 (r² = 0.62), and the two-variable (AOD-PM_2.5) model predicted PM_2.5 (r² = 0.4). The developed model was validated using particulate matter recordings and meteorology observations from another location in the Appalachia region, Hazard, Kentucky. The model was extrapolated to the Roda, VA, sampling site to predict PM_2.5 mass concentrations. We used 10 km x 10 km resolution MODIS 550 nm AOD to predict ground level PM_2.5. For the relevant period in 2008, in Roda, VA, the predicted PM_2.5 mass concentration is 9.11 ± 5.16 μg m^-3 (mean ± 1SD).

Implications: This is the first study that couples ground-based Particulate Matter measurements with satellite retrievals to predict surface air pollution at Roda, Virginia. Roda is representative of the Appalachian communities that are commonly located in narrow valleys, or “hollows,” where homes are placed directly along the roads in a region of active mountaintop mining operations. Our study suggests that proximity to heavy coal truck traffic subjects these communities to chronic exposure to coal dust and leads us to conclude that there is an urgent need for new regulations to address the primary sources of this particulate matter.     

Dimer formation during UV photolysis of diclofenac

Dimer formation was observed during ultraviolet (UV) photolysis of the anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac, and confirmed with mass spectrometry, NMR and fluorescence analysis. The dimers were combinations of the two parent molecules or of the parent and the product of photolysis, and had visible color. Radical formation during UV exposure and dissolved oxygen photosensitized reactions played a role in dimer formation. Singlet oxygen formed via photosensitization by photolysis products of diclofenac. It reacted with diclofenac to form an epoxide which is an intermediate in some dimer formation pathways. Quantum yield of photolysis for diclofenac was 0.21 ± 0.02 and 0.19 ± 0.02 for UV irradiation from medium pressure and low pressure mercury vapor lamps, respectively. Band pass filter experiments revealed that the quantum yield is constant at wavelengths >200 nm. The same dimers formed in laboratory grade water when either of the two UV sources was used. Dimers did not form in wastewater effluent matrix, and diclofenac epoxide molecules may have formed bonds with organic matter rather than each other Implications for the importance of dimer formation in NOM are discussed.     

Field Performance of Point Velocity Probes at a Tidally Influenced Site

Conventional methods to estimate groundwater velocity that rely on Darcy's Law and average hydrogeologic parameter values are insensitive to local‐scale heterogeneities and anisotropy that control advective flow velocity and direction. Furthermore, at sites that are tidally influenced or have extraction wells with variable pumping schedules, infrequent water‐level measurements may not adequately characterize the range and significance of transient hydraulic conditions. The point velocity probe (PVP) is a recently developed instrument capable of directly measuring local‐scale groundwater flow velocity and direction. In particular, PVPs may offer distinct advantages for sites with complex groundwater–surface water interactions and/or with spatially and temporally variable groundwater flow conditions. The PVP utilizes a small volume of saline tracer and inexpensive sensors to directly measure groundwater flow direction and velocity in situ at the centimeter‐scale and discrete times. The probes are installed in conventional direct‐push borings, rather than in wells, thus minimizing the changes and biases in the local flow field caused by well installation and construction. Six PVPs were installed at a tidally influenced site in North Carolina to evaluate their implementability, performance, and potential value as a new site characterization tool. For this study, a new PVP prototype was developed using a rapid prototyping machine (i.e., a “three‐dimensional printer'') and included both horizontally and vertically oriented tracer detectors. A site‐specific testing protocol was developed to account for the spatially and temporally variable hydraulic conditions and groundwater salinity. The PVPs were tested multiple times, and the results were compared to the results of several different groundwater flux and velocity estimation tools and methods, including a heat‐pulse flowmeter, passive flux meters, single‐well tracer tests, and high‐resolution hydraulic gradient analysis. Overall, the results confirmed that the PVP concept is valid and demonstrated that reliable estimates of groundwater velocity and direction can be obtained in simple settings. Also, PVPs can be successfully installed by conventional methods at sites where the formation consists primarily of noncohesive soils and the water table is relatively shallow. Although some PVP tests yielded consistent and reliable results, several tests did not. This is likely due to the highly transient flow conditions and limitations associated with the PVP design and testing procedures. PVPs offer particular advantages over, and can effectively complement, other groundwater flow characterization techniques for certain conditions, and objectives may be useful for characterizing complex flow patterns under steady conditions; however, this study suggests that PVPs are best suited for conditions where the flow hydraulics are not highly transient. For sites where the hydraulic conditions are highly transient, the most reliable approach for understanding groundwater flow behavior and groundwater–surface water interactions would generally involve both a high‐resolution hydraulic gradient analysis and another local‐scale method, such as tracer testing. This study also highlighted some aspects of the current PVP design and testing protocol that can be improved upon, including a more robust connection between the PVP and injection line and further assessment of tracer solution density effects on vertical flow. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

An updated assessment of the acute impacts of ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection

This paper evaluates the expected environmental impact of several promising schemes for ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection of CO₂, and serves as a major update to the assessment by Auerbach et al. (1997) and Caulfield et al. (1997) of water quality impacts and the induced mortality to zooplankton. Three discharge approaches are considered, each designed to maximize dilution over the water column: a point release of negatively buoyant CO₂ hydrate particles from a moving ship; a stationary point release of CO₂ hydrate particles forming a sinking plume; and a long, bottom-mounted diffuser discharging buoyant liquid CO₂ droplets. Two of these scenarios take advantage of the enhanced dilution offered by CO₂ hydrate particles, and are based on recent laboratory and field studies on the formation and behavior of such particles. Overall, results suggest that it is possible with present or near present technology to engineer discharge configurations that achieve sufficient dilution to largely avoid acute impacts. In particular, the moving ship hydrate discharge is identified as the most promising due to its operational flexibility. In addition to lethal effects, sub-lethal and ecosystem effects are discussed qualitatively, though not analyzed quantitatively. Our main conclusion is that ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection should not be dismissed as a climate change mitigation strategy on the basis of environmental impact alone. Rather, it can be considered as a viable option for further study, especially in regions where geologic sequestration proves impractical.     

Optimum swimming pathways of fish spawning migrations in rivers

Fishes that swim upstream in rivers to spawn must navigate complex fluvial velocity fields to arrive at their ultimate locations. One hypothesis with substantial implications is that fish traverse pathways that minimize their energy expenditure during migration. Here we present the methodological and theoretical developments necessary to test this and similar hypotheses. First, a cost function is derived for upstream migration that relates work done by a fish to swimming drag. The energetic cost scales with the cube of a fish's relative velocity integrated along its path. By normalizing to the energy requirements of holding a position in the slowest waters at the path's origin, a cost function is derived that depends only on the physical environment and not on specifics of individual fish. Then, as an example, we demonstrate the analysis of a migration pathway of a telemetrically tracked pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the Missouri River (USA). The actual pathway cost is lower than 10(5) random paths through the surveyed reach and is consistent with the optimization hypothesis. The implication--subject to more extensive validation--is that reproductive success in managed rivers could be increased through manipulation of reservoir releases or channel morphology to increase abundance of lower-cost migration pathways.