Large-eddy simulation of starting buoyant jets

A series of Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are performed to investigate the penetration of starting buoyant jets. The LES code is first validated by comparing simulation results with existing experimental data for both steady and starting pure jets and lazy plumes. The centerline decay and the growth rate of the velocity and concentration fields for steady jets and plumes, as well as the simulated transient penetration rate of a starting pure jet and a starting lazy plume, are found to compare well with the experiments. After validation, the LES code is used to study the penetration of starting buoyant jets with three different Reynolds numbers from 2000 to 3000, and with a wide range of buoyancy fluxes from pure jets to lazy plumes. The penetration rate is found to increase with an increasing buoyancy flux. It is also observed that, in the initial Period of Flow Development, the two penetrative mechanisms driven by the initial buoyancy and momentum fluxes are uncoupled; therefore the total penetration rate can be resolved as the linear addition of these two effects. A fitting equation is proposed to predict the penetration rate by combining the two independent mechanisms.     

Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire

Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N-mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non-detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. Ther was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection probability may often more appropriately represent levels of uncertainty.     

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.     

Brevetoxins in sharks and rays (Chondrichthyes, Elasmobranchii) from Florida coastal waters

In October 2000, a mass mortality of blacktip sharks (Carcharhinus limbatus) and Atlantic sharpnose sharks (Rhizoprionodon terraenovae) in northwest Florida occurred in conjunction with a Karenia brevis red tide bloom. Before this incident, no information existed on red tide-induced shark mortalities or baseline brevetoxin levels in sharks and rays from red tide-endemic areas. We report here that brevetoxin accumulation in live and red tide-killed elasmobranchs is common during K. brevis blooms and non-bloom periods. Strong relationships were found between the frequency of red tide blooms and the average brevetoxin concentrations in elasmobranch tissues. The presence of brevetoxins in Atlantic coast sharks in the absence of documented K. brevis blooms may suggest that blooms are occurring in areas that are not well monitored. Although red tide-related shark mortalities are rarely observed, the presence of brevetoxins in shark embryos raises questions about the effects these toxins may have on the reproductive success of sharks.     

Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Regional Environmental Change - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A...     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.     

An exploratory study of total mercury levels in archaeological caribou hair from northwest Alaska

Over the past ten years, total mercury (THg) levels have been surveyed in Alaskan wildlife and fish as part of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment (AMAP). Beyond these studies there is little historical data on THg levels in important subsistence species for people in Alaska. A survey of THg in caribou hair from archaeological deposits would provide data to develop temporal trends for this region of the Arctic. Caribou hair from a Western Thule settlement beneath the Alaska native village of Deering (ca. AD 1150) show variability in hair THg values, with a mean level (86 ng/g) which is in the range that is observed in modern Rangifer sp. (caribou and reindeer). Hair from House 1 had a THg mean level of 99.6 ng/g and hair from House 2 had a THg mean of 64.2 ng/g. This is the earliest reported record of mercury in caribou associated with human subsistence activities in the western North American Arctic, and is a first step toward compilation of a needed database through which to measure and evaluate exposure to mercury by people who rely heavily on caribou as a food source. We hypothesize that similarity in mercury values in archaeological samples of caribou and in contemporary samples would give an additional perspective on human exposure to mercury through caribou harvest and consumption today. Since this hypothesis will be more useful if evaluated at a regional rather than global scale, further studies will be needed at different archaeological sites across Alaska to determine the generality of this observation in relation to geographic scale.     

Differential degradation of crude oil （Bonny Light） by four Pseudomonas strains

Four hydrocarbon degraders isolated from enriched oil- and asphalt-contaminated soils in Lagos, Nigeria, were tested for their petroleum degradation potentials. All the isolates were identified as species of Pseudomonas. Pseudomonas putida P11 demonstrated a strong ability to degrade kerosene, gasoline, diesel, engine oil and crude oil while P. aeruginosa BB3 exhibited fair degradative ability on crude oil, gasoline, engine oil, anthracene and pyrene but weak on kerosene, diesel and dibenzothiophene. Pseudomonas putida WL2 and P. aeruginosa MVL1 grew on crude oil and all its cuts tested with the latter possessing similar polycyclic aromatic potentials as P11. All the strains grew logarithmically with 1–2 orders of magnitude and with generation time ranging significantly between 3.07 and 8.55 d at 0.05 level of confidence. Strains WL2 and MVL1 utilized the oil substrate best with more than 70% in 6 d experimental period, whereas the same feat was achieved by P11 in 12 d period. BB3 on the other hand degraded only 46% within 6 d. Interestingly, data obtained from gas chromatographic analysis of oil recovered from the culture fluids of MVL1 confirmed near-disappearance of major peaks (including aliphatics and aromatics) in the hydrocarbon mixture.     

A compilation of field surveys on gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) from contrasting environmental settings in Europe,South America,South Africa and China: separating fads from facts

Mercury is transported globally in the atmosphere mostly in gaseous elemental form (GEM, \( {\text{Hg}}_{\text{gas}}^{0} \) ), but still few worldwide studies taking into account different and contrasted environmental settings are available in a single publication. This work presents and discusses data from Argentina, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Chile, China, Croatia, Finland, Italy, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Slovenia and Venezuela. We classified the information in four groups: (1) mining districts where this contaminant poses or has posed a risk for human populations and/or ecosystems; (2) cities, where the concentration of atmospheric mercury could be higher than normal due to the burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities; (3) areas with natural emissions from volcanoes; and (4) pristine areas where no anthropogenic influence was apparent. All the surveys were performed using portable LUMEX RA-915 series atomic absorption spectrometers. The results for cities fall within a low GEM concentration range that rarely exceeds 30 ng m^?3, that is, 6.6 times lower than the restrictive ATSDR threshold (200 ng m^?3) for chronic exposure to this pollutant. We also observed this behavior in the former mercury mining districts, where few data were above 200 ng m^?3. We noted that high concentrations of GEM are localized phenomena that fade away in short distances. However, this does not imply that they do not pose a risk for those working in close proximity to the source. This is the case of the artisanal gold miners that heat the Au–Hg amalgam to vaporize mercury. In this respect, while GEM can be truly regarded as a hazard, because of possible physical–chemical transformations into other species, it is only under these localized conditions, implying exposure to high GEM concentrations, which it becomes a direct risk for humans.     

Characterizing Spatial Uncertainty when Integrating Social Data in Conservation Planning

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches.