Estimating the hydraulic properties of the fracture network in a sandstone aquifer

The potential hydraulic behaviour of the fracture network in a major Triassic sandstone aquifer in the UK has been evaluated. The properties of the fracture network were determined using results from detailed scan line surveys at 10 sites, television and geophysical borehole logging, and packer testing. Six sets of discontinuities common to all sites were identified and statistically characterised (dip, strike, orientation, density, size, and estimated transmissivity). A discrete fracture network model was then used stochastically to investigate the properties of the network. In general, the network is poorly connected: it is estimated that 9% of the discontinuities intersecting boreholes are transmissive. The hydraulic behaviour of the network is generally dominated by one sub-horizontal bedding plane fracture set, although when present, a relatively infrequent north-south striking, sub-vertical set modifies the bulk flow properties significantly. Ignoring this latter set, the network's minimum representative volume is about 35 x 35 x 35 m. The upscaled permeability is anisotropic, being typically 23 times greater in the horizontal than in the vertical. Tortuosity in the north-south direction is around 1.6.     

Enhancement of reproductive success through mate choice in a social rock-wallaby, Petrogale assimilis (Macropodidae) as revealed by microsatellite markers

The reason why a female who is socially paired to one particular male seeks extra-pair copulations (EPCs) with others has important implications in life history models and to the study of behaviour. The Allied rock-wallaby, Petrogale assimilis, lives in spatially isolated colonies in tropical north Queensland, Australia. Extensive observations of a colony at Black Rock showed that intense behavioural bonding occurs between pairs of adult males and females; about two-thirds of males paired with one female, the remainder paired with two females simultaneously. Single-locus microsatellite profiling determined the paternity of 63 offspring from 21 females for which long-term behavioural data were available. One-third of the young were fathered by males which were not paired socially with the mother. The mating system was heterogeneous: (1) all offspring of 11 females were fathered by the mother's partner, (2) all young of 5 females were fathered by extra-pair males, and (3) only some of the young of 5 females were fathered by their regular consort. Analysis of individual longitudinal demographic records showed that females whose young were always fathered by their consort had higher reproductive success than those whose young were always fathered as a result of (EPCs). However, females with some offspring fathered by their regular consort and others via EPCs had the highest probability of raising young to independence. These females were significantly more likely to have an offspring fathered as a result of an EPC if their previous young had failed to survive to pouch emergence. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that females choose mates for their genetic quality. Comparison of the males with which these females sought EPCs and the regular consorts suggested that arm length rather than body weight or testes size was used as the index of genetic quality. Results from a second colony of rock-wallabies in which the reproductive rate was accelerated were also consistent with the genetic-quality hypothesis. These results imply that by choosing better-quality fathers irrespective of social pairing, females are able to maximise their overall lifetime reproductive success, and presumably, those of their offspring. Received: 8 June 1997 / Accepted after revision: 28 February 1998     

Guiding principles for rewilding

There has been much recent interest in the concept of rewilding as a tool for nature conservation, but also confusion over the idea, which has limited its utility. We developed a unifying definition and 10 guiding principles for rewilding through a survey of 59 rewilding experts, a summary of key organizations’ rewilding visions, and workshops involving over 100 participants from around the world. The guiding principles convey that rewilding exits on a continuum of scale, connectivity, and level of human influence and aims to restore ecosystem structure and functions to achieve a self-sustaining autonomous nature. These principles clarify the concept of rewilding and improve its effectiveness as a tool to achieve global conservation targets, including those of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Finally, we suggest differences in rewilding perspectives lie largely in the extent to which it is seen as achievable and in specific interventions. An understanding of the context of rewilding projects is the key to success, and careful site-specific interpretations will help achieve the aims of rewilding.     

Characterizing species co-occurrence patterns of imperfectly detected stream fishes to inform species reintroduction efforts

Species reintroduction efforts can improve the recovery of imperiled species, but successful implementation of this conservation strategy requires a thorough understanding of the abiotic and biotic factors influencing species viability. Species interactions are especially understudied, in particular by omitting the effect of imperfect detection on negative, neutral, or positive associations within a community. Using repeat surveys from 5 southern Ontario, Canada, Great Lakes tributaries, we quantified species co-occurrence patterns with the eastern sand darter (ESD) (Ammocrypta pellucida), listed as federally threatened, and characterized how imperfect detection during sampling can influence inference regarding these relationships. We used a probabilistic framework that included 3 approaches of increasing complexity: probabilistic co-occurrence analysis ignoring imperfect detection; single-species occupancy models with subsequent co-occurrence analysis; and 2-species occupancy models. We then used our occupancy models to predict suitable sites for potential future reintroduction efforts while considering the influence of negative species interactions. Based on the observed data, ESD showed several positive associations with co-occurring species; however, species associations differed when imperfect detection was considered. Specifically, a negative association between ESD and rosyface shiner (Notropis rubellus) was observed only after accounting for imperfect detection in the Grand River. Alternatively, positive associations in the Grand River between ESD and northern hogsucker (Hypentelium nigricans) and silver shiner (Notropis photogenis) were observed regardless of whether imperfect detection was accounted for. Our models predicted several potential reintroduction sites for ESD in formerly occupied watersheds with high levels of certainty. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of investigating imperfect detection and species co-occurrence when planning reintroduction efforts.     

The role of odds ratios in joint species distribution modeling

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Joint species distribution modeling is attracting increasing attention these days, acknowledging the fact that individual level modeling fails to take into...     

Application of a scenario-based modeling system to evaluate the air quality impacts of future growth

The structure and design of future urban development can have significant adverse effects on air pollutant emissions as well as other environmental factors. When considering the future impact of growth on mobile source emissions, we generally model the increase in vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) as a function of population growth. However, diverse and poorly planned urban development (i.e., urban sprawl) can force higher rates of motor vehicle use and in return increase levels of pollutant emissions than alternative land-use scenarios. The objective of this study is to develop and implement an air quality assessment tool that takes into account the influence of alternative growth and development scenarios on air quality.The use of scenario-based techniques in land use planning has been around since the late 1940s and been tested in many different applications to aid in decision-making. In this study, we introduce the development of an advanced interactive scenario-based land use and atmospheric chemistry modeling system coupled with a GIS (Geographical Information System) framework. The modeling system is designed to be modular and includes land use/land cover information, transportation, meteorological, emissions, and photochemical modeling components. The methods and modularity of the developed system allow its application to both broad areas and applications.To investigate the impact of possible land use change and urbanization, we evaluated a set of alternative future patterns of land use developed for a study area in Southwest California. Four land use and two population variants (increases of 500k and 1M) were considered. Overall, a Regional Low-Density Future was seen to have the highest pollutant emissions, largest increase in VKT, and the greatest impact on air quality. On the other hand, a Three-Centers Future appeared to be the most beneficial alternative future land-use scenario in terms of air quality. For all cases, the increase in population was the main factor leading to the change on predicted pollutant levels.     

PCBs in air, soil and milk in industrialized and urban areas of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Information regarding polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in environmental media in Africa is limited. This paper presents results of a monitoring program conducted in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa designed to characterize levels, trends and sources of airborne PCBs. Particulate and vapor samples were sampled over the 2004-2005 period at three sites. The total PCB concentration averaged 128 ± 47 pg m⁻³, and levels were highest in winter. Tri- through hexa-congeners predominated, and the vapor fraction was predominant. Several tetra- through hexa-chlorinated congeners had levels comparable to those at urban sites in the northern hemisphere, but hepta- through deca-congeners resembled levels at background sites. PCB source areas, deduced using spatial and temporal patterns, compositional information and trajectory analyses, likely included local, regional and global sources. Soils at three rural sites showed high PCB concentrations, and milk from a local dairy showed PCB concentrations comparable to USA levels in year 2000.     

CALPUFF and AERMOD model validation study in the near field: Martins Creek revisited

This paper describes a near-field validation study involving the steady-state, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guideline model AERMOD and the nonsteady-state puff model CALPUFF. Relative model performance is compared with field measurements collected near Martins Creek, PA-a rural, hilly area along the Pennsylvania-New Jersey border. The principal emission sources in the study were two coal-fired power plants with tall stacks and buoyant plumes. Over 1 yr of sulfur dioxide measurements were collected at eight monitors located at or above the two power plants' stack tops. Concurrent meteorological data were available at two sites. Both sites collected data 10 m above the ground. One of the sites also collected sonic detection and ranging measurements up to 420 m above ground. The ability of the two models to predict monitored sulfur dioxide concentrations was assessed in a four-part model validation. Each part of the validation applied different criteria and statistics to provide a comprehensive evaluation of model performance. Because of their importance in regulatory applications, an emphasis was placed on statistics that demonstrate the model's ability to reproduce the upper end of the concentration distribution. On the basis of the combined results of the four-part validation (i.e., weight of evidence), the performance of CALPUFF was judged to be superior to that of AERMOD.     

Comparative chronic toxicity of nanoparticulate and ionic zinc to the earthworm Eisenia veneta in a soil matrix

Manufactured nanoparticles (NPs) are increasingly being used in a range of consumer products and are already entering the environment. NP ZnO is one of the most widely used and potentially toxic NPs in aquatic exposures. It is likely that ZnO nanoparticles will also be bioavailable to soil organisms, studies on ZnO NP toxicity in a soil matrix are lacking. We exposed the earthworm Eisenia veneta to uncoated NP ZnO (<100 nm) dosed to soil and food at 250 and 750 mg Zn kg(-1) for 21 d. Concurrent exposures of equivalent ionic Zn were conducted with ZnCl(2) and for both forms effects on life history traits, immune activity and Zn body concentrations were compared. Despite slightly higher measured body concentrations, NP ZnO generally had less impact than ZnCl(2) on measured traits. At 750 mg Zn kg(-1), reproduction declined by 50% when exposed to NP ZnO but was almost completely inhibited by ZnCl(2). Similarly, immune activity was unaffected by NP ZnO but was suppressed by 20% when exposed to ZnCl(2). Scanning electron microscopy analysis of worm tissues following 24h aqueous exposure showed the presence of ZnO particles suggesting that NPs can be taken up in particulate form. This may explain the reduced effects at similar body concentrations seen in the soil study. Our findings suggest that risk assessments do not need to go beyond considering the metal component of NP ZnO in soils at least for the larger size uncoated particles considered here.     

Reproduction, larval growth, and reproductive development in African clawed frogs (Xenopus laevis) exposed to atrazine

Reproductive success and development of F2 offspring from F1 adult African clawed frogs (Xenopus laevis) exposed to atrazine throughout larval development and as sexually mature adults was examined. Larval X. laevis were exposed to one of four nominal concentrations of atrazine (0, 1, 10, 25 microg atrazine/l) beginning 96 hr after fertilization and continuing through two years post-metamorphosis. Clutch size and survival of offspring were used as measurement endpoints to gauge reproductive success of the F1 frogs. Larval survivorship and time to metamorphosis were used to gauge developmental success of the F2 offspring from atrazine-exposed frogs. Testes in F1 and F2 frogs were examined for incidence of anomalies, such as testicular ovarian follicles, and sex ratios in F2 offspring were investigated to determine if exposure to atrazine caused trans-generational effects (effects on F2 individuals due to exposure of F1 individuals). There were no effects of any of the studied concentrations of atrazine on clutch size of F1 frogs. There were also no effects on hatching success or time to metamorphosis. Sex ratios did not differ between F2 offspring among treatments. There was no evidence to suggest a transgenerational effect of atrazine on spawning success or reproductive development of X. laevis. This is consistent with the presence of robust populations of X. laevis in areas where they are exposed to atrazine that has been used for several decades for weed control in production of corn. Our observations also are consistent with the results of most other studies of frogs where no effects were found to be associated with exposure to atrazine. Our data do not support the hypothesis that atrazine significantly affects reproductive fitness and development of frogs.