Using prognostic model-generated meteorological output in the AERMOD dispersion model: an illustrative application in Philadelphia, PA

In this study, we introduce the prospect of using prognostic model-generated meteorological output as input to steady-state dispersion models by identifying possible advantages and disadvantages and by presenting a comparative analysis. Because output from prognostic meteorological models is now routinely available and is used for Eulerian and Lagrangian air quality modeling applications, we explore the possibility of using such data in lieu of traditional National Weather Service (NWS) data for dispersion models. We apply these data in an urban application where comparisons can be made between the two meteorological input data types. Using the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) air quality dispersion model, hourly and annual average concentrations of benzene are estimated for the Philadelphia, PA, area using both hourly MM5 model-generated meteorological output and meteorological data taken from the NWS site at the Philadelphia International Airport. Our intent is to stimulate a discussion of the relevant issues and inspire future work that examines many of the questions raised in this paper.     

Political transition and emergent forest‐conservation issues in Myanmar

Political and economic transitions have had substantial impacts on forest conservation. Where transitions are underway or anticipated, historical precedent and methods for systematically assessing future trends should be used to anticipate likely threats to forest conservation and design appropriate and prescient policy measures to counteract them. Myanmar is transitioning from an authoritarian, centralized state with a highly regulated economy to a more decentralized and economically liberal democracy and is working to end a long‐running civil war. With these transitions in mind, we used a horizon‐scanning approach to assess the 40 emerging issues most affecting Myanmar's forests, including internal conflict, land‐tenure insecurity, large‐scale agricultural development, demise of state timber enterprises, shortfalls in government revenue and capacity, and opening of new deforestation frontiers with new roads, mines, and hydroelectric dams. Averting these threats will require, for example, overhauling governance models, building capacity, improving infrastructure‐ and energy‐project planning, and reforming land‐tenure and environmental‐protection laws. Although challenges to conservation in Myanmar are daunting, the political transition offers an opportunity for conservationists and researchers to help shape a future that enhances Myanmar's social, economic, and environmental potential while learning and applying lessons from other countries. Our approach and results are relevant to other countries undergoing similar transitions.     

Predicting support for non‐pharmaceutical interventions during infectious outbreaks: a four region analysis

Non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are an important public health tool for responding to infectious disease outbreaks, including pandemics. However, little is known about the individual characteristics associated with support for NPIs, or whether they are consistent across regions. This study draws on survey data from four regions—Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and the United States—collected following the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2002–03, and employs regression techniques to estimate predictors of NPI support. It finds that characteristics associated with NPI support vary widely by region, possibly because of cultural variation and prior experience, and that minority groups tend to be less supportive of NPIs when arrest is the consequence of noncompliance. Prior experience of face‐mask usage also results in increased support for future usage, as well as other NPIs. Policymakers should be attentive to local preferences and to the application of compulsory interventions. It is speculated here that some public health interventions may serve as ‘gateway’ exposures to future public health interventions.     

Optimizing voluntary compliance in marine protected areas: a comparison of recreational fisher and enforcement officer perspectives using multi-criteria analysis

A comprehensive list of planning criteria for optimizing compliance in Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) was compiled and used to compare the views of recreational fishers and compliance officers for facilitating voluntary compliance in the Port Stephens - Great Lakes Marine Park (PSGLMP). Expert working groups were tasked separately with: 1) criteria identification and weighting; 2) scoring of no-take zones; 3) prioritizing and determining uncertainty; and 4) analysis of results and sensitivity testing. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) revealed that both groups had similar perspectives and recommendations, despite weighting the individual planning criteria differently. Significantly, "manageability" scores for no-take zones from MCA appeared to correlate well with past numbers of enforcement actions recorded for each zone. This provides empirical evidence that adopting manageability criteria during the planning of MPAs could lead to a marked increase in voluntary compliance. As a result, greater consideration to compliance planning during MPA design and zoning is recommended in order to optimize voluntary compliance. Whilst the majority of no-take zones in the PSGLMP case study were evaluated as being relatively effective in terms of optimizing voluntary compliance, there remains considerable potential to improve design, management and use of the poorer performing zones. Finally, the study highlighted the value of recreational fisher engagement in MPA planning processes to maximize voluntary compliance and manageability.     

Sustainable fishing gear: the case of modified circle hooks in a Costa Rican longline fishery

Our research aims to identify longline fishing gear modifications that can improve fishing selectivity and reduce incidental capture of non-target species. Catch rates and anatomical hook locations (AHL) were compared when using a 14/0 standard ??control?? circle hook with a 0° offset and an experimental ??appendage?? hook in a Costa Rican longline fishery. With the appendage, the maximum dimension of the appendage hook was increased by 10% and the minimum dimension of the hook by 19%. A total of 1,811 marine animals were captured during five fishing trips. By taxonomic groups, sea turtles represented the largest total catch (27%), followed by sharks (26%), rays (25%), mahimahi (Coryphaena hippurus) (12%), and tunas and billfish (10%). Non-target and discard species, such as rays and sea turtles, accounted for over half of the total catch. Catch per unit effort (CPUE; number of individuals per 1,000 hooks) was higher with control hooks compared to appendage hooks for all species?? categories except rays; appendage hooks caught 52% fewer sea turtles and 23% fewer tunas and billfish than standard hooks, which represents a significant reduction in bycatch of endangered and other species. No differences were found in the AHL for sea turtles, suggesting use of the appendage may not incur additional advantages regarding turtles?? post-release survivorship. Despite lower catch rates for marketable species, such as sharks and mahimahi, use of the appendage resulted in dramatic reductions in catch rates of sea turtles. The results suggest that large scale adoption of hooks with a significantly wider hook dimension could be an effective conservation measure to maintain marine biodiversity while allowing for continued fishing.     

Impacts of 21st‐Century Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

Climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America include warmer temperatures (T), reduced precipitation (P) in summer months, and increased P during all other seasons. Using a physically based hydrologic model and an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate model scenarios produced by the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, we examine the nature of changing hydrologic extremes (floods and low flows) under natural conditions for about 300 river locations in the PNW. The combination of warming, and shifts in seasonal P regimes, results in increased flooding and more intense low flows for most of the basins in the PNW. Flood responses depend on average midwinter T and basin type. Mixed rain and snow basins, with average winter temperatures near freezing, typically show the largest increases in flood risk because of the combined effects of warming (increasing contributing basin area) and more winter P. Decreases in low flows are driven by loss of snowpack, drier summers, and increasing evapotranspiration in the simulations. Energy‐limited basins on the west side of the Cascades show the strongest declines in low flows, whereas more arid, water‐limited basins on the east side of the Cascades show smaller reductions in low flows. A fine‐scale analysis of hydrologic extremes over the Olympic Peninsula echoes the results for the larger rivers discussed above, but provides additional detail about topographic gradients.     

The effectiveness of state of the environment reporting (SoER) at the local government sphere – a developing country's experience

State of the environment reporting (SoER) is a well-established and widely applied environmental management tool in the South African context. Despite a wealth of knowledge about conducting and preparing SoERs, there is a paucity of research on the effect SoER has had on decision-making at the local government sphere. This study investigated the effect of SoER on decision-making for a sample of municipalities in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. The methodology relied on interviews with key role players, which include the ‘‘environmental function’' as well as ‘‘other functions’' responsible for infrastructure development and planning within the municipalities. The results show that notwithstanding the extensive time and resources spent on SoER, it appears to have had a limited effect on decision-making, especially beyond the environmental function. Recommendations to improve the influence of SoER on decision-making in developing countries include improved clarity on the purpose and home of SoER within municipalities, adequate budget and capacity, and effective cooperative governance both within the municipalities, and with other spheres of government.