Guiding principles for rewilding

There has been much recent interest in the concept of rewilding as a tool for nature conservation, but also confusion over the idea, which has limited its utility. We developed a unifying definition and 10 guiding principles for rewilding through a survey of 59 rewilding experts, a summary of key organizations’ rewilding visions, and workshops involving over 100 participants from around the world. The guiding principles convey that rewilding exits on a continuum of scale, connectivity, and level of human influence and aims to restore ecosystem structure and functions to achieve a self-sustaining autonomous nature. These principles clarify the concept of rewilding and improve its effectiveness as a tool to achieve global conservation targets, including those of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Finally, we suggest differences in rewilding perspectives lie largely in the extent to which it is seen as achievable and in specific interventions. An understanding of the context of rewilding projects is the key to success, and careful site-specific interpretations will help achieve the aims of rewilding.     

Moving from trends to benchmarks by using regression tree analysis to find inbreeding thresholds in a critically endangered bird

Understanding how inbreeding affects endangered species in conservation breeding programs is essential for their recovery. The Hawaiian Crow (‘Alalā) (Corvus hawaiiensis) is one of the world's most endangered birds. It went extinct in the wild in 2002, and, until recent release efforts starting in 2016, nearly all of the population remained under human care for conservation breeding. Using pedigree inbreeding coefficients (F), we evaluated the effects of inbreeding on Hawaiian Crow offspring survival and reproductive success. We used regression tree analysis to identify the level of inbreeding (i.e., inbreeding threshold) that explains a substantial decrease in ‘Alalā offspring survival to recruitment. Similar to a previous study of inbreeding in ‘Alalā, we found that inbreeding had a negative impact on offspring survival but that parental (vs. artificial) egg incubation improved offspring survival to recruitment. Furthermore, we found that inbreeding did not substantially affect offspring reproductive success, based on the assumption that offspring that survive to adulthood breed with distantly related mates. Our novel application of regression tree analysis showed that offspring with inbreeding levels exceeding F = 0.098 were 69% less likely to survive to recruitment than more outbred offspring, providing a specific threshold value for ongoing population management. Our results emphasize the importance of assessing inbreeding depression across all life history stages, confirm the importance of prioritizing parental over artificial egg incubation in avian conservation breeding programs, and demonstrate the utility of regression tree analysis as a tool for identifying inbreeding thresholds, if present, in any pedigree-managed population.     

The effects of parametric uncertainties in simulations of a reactive plume using a Lagrangian stochastic model

A combined Lagrangian stochastic model with micro-mixing and chemical sub-models is used to investigate a reactive plume of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) released into a turbulent grid flow doped with ozone (O₃). Sensitivities to the model input parameters are explored for different source NO_x scenarios. The wind tunnel experiments of Brown and Bilger (1996) provide the simulation conditions for the first case study where photolysis reactions are not included and the main uncertainties occur in parameters defining the turbulence scales, source size and reaction rate of NO with O₃. Using nominal values of the parameters from previous studies, the model gives a good representation of the radial profile of the conserved mean scalar ${\overline{\Gamma }}_{{\text{NO}}_{\text{x}}}$ although slightly over predicts peak mean NO₂ concentrations ${\overline{\Gamma }}_{{\text{NO}}_{\text{2}}}$ compared to the experiments. The high dimensional model representation (HDMR) method is used to investigate the effects of uncertainties in model inputs on the simulation of chemical species concentrations. For this scenario, the Lagrangian velocity structure function coefficient has the largest impact on simulated ${\overline{\Gamma }}_{{\text{NO}}_{\text{x}}}$ profiles. Photolysis reactions are then included in a chemical scheme consisting of eight reactions between species NO, O, O₃ and NO₂. Independent and interactive effects of 22 input parameters are studied for two source NO_x scenarios using HDMR, including turbulence parameters, temperature dependant rate parameters, photolysis rates, temperature, fraction of NO in total NO_x at the source and background ozone concentration [O₃]. For this reactive case, the variance in the predicted mean plume centre ${\overline{\Gamma }}_{{\text{O}}_{\text{3}}}$ is caused by parameters describing both physical (mixing time-scale coefficient) and chemical processes (activation energy for the reaction O₃+NO). The variance in predicted plume centre ${\overline{\Gamma }}_{{\text{NO}}_{\text{2}}}$ and root mean square NO₂ concentration ${\gamma }_{{\text{NO}}_{\text{2}}}^{\prime }$, is strongly influenced by the fraction of NO in the source NO_x, and to a lesser extent the mixing time-scale coefficient. Adjusting the latter gives improved agreement with the Brown and Bilger experiment. Some weak parameter interactions are observed.     

Cancer risk assessment of selected hazardous air pollutants in Seattle

The risk estimates calculated from the conventional risk assessment method usually are compound specific and provide limited information for source-specific air quality control. We used a risk apportionment approach, which is a combination of receptor modeling and risk assessment, to estimate source-specific lifetime excess cancer risks of selected hazardous air pollutants. We analyzed the speciated PM(2.5) and VOCs data collected at the Beacon Hill in Seattle, WA between 2000 and 2004 with the Multilinear Engine to first quantify source contributions to the mixture of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) in terms of mass concentrations. The cancer risk from exposure to each source was then calculated as the sum of all available species' cancer risks in the source feature. We also adopted the bootstrapping technique for the uncertainty analysis. The results showed that the overall cancer risk was 6.09 x 10(-5), with the background (1.61 x 10(-5)), diesel (9.82 x 10(-6)) and wood burning (9.45 x 10(-6)) sources being the primary risk sources. The PM(2.5) mass concentration contributed 20% of the total risk. The 5th percentile of the risk estimates of all sources other than marine and soil were higher than 110(-6). It was also found that the diesel and wood burning sources presented similar cancer risks although the diesel exhaust contributed less to the PM(2.5) mass concentration than the wood burning. This highlights the additional value from such a risk apportionment approach that could be utilized for prioritizing control strategies to reduce the highest population health risks from exposure to HAPs.     

Taking a ‘Big Data’ approach to data quality in a citizen science project

Data from well-designed experiments provide the strongest evidence of causation in biodiversity studies. However, for many species the collection of these data is not scalable to the spatial and temporal extents required to understand patterns at the population level. Only data collected from citizen science projects can gather sufficient quantities of data, but data collected from volunteers are inherently noisy and heterogeneous. Here we describe a ‘Big Data’ approach to improve the data quality in eBird, a global citizen science project that gathers bird observations. First, eBird’s data submission design ensures that all data meet high standards of completeness and accuracy. Second, we take a ‘sensor calibration’ approach to measure individual variation in eBird participant’s ability to detect and identify birds. Third, we use species distribution models to fill in data gaps. Finally, we provide examples of novel analyses exploring population-level patterns in bird distributions.     

Visions for the North Sea: The Societal Dilemma Behind Specifying Good Environmental Status

We augment discussions about the Good Environmental Status of the North Sea by developing two extreme visions and assessing their societal benefits. One vision (‘Then’) assumes restoration of benthic functioning; we contend that trawling had already degraded the southern North Sea a century ago. Available information is used to speculate about benthic functioning in a relatively undisturbed southern North Sea. The second vision (‘Now’) draws on recent benthic functioning. The supply of five ecosystem services, supported by benthic functioning, is discussed. ‘Then’ offers confidence in the sustainable supply of diverse services but restoration of past function is uncertain and likely to be paired with costs, notably trawling restraints. ‘Now’ delivers known and valued services but sustained delivery is threatened by, for example, climate change. We do not advocate either vision. Our purpose is to stimulate debate about what society wants, and might receive, from the future southern North Sea.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0536-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Toward enhanced subsurface intervention methods using chaotic advection

Many intervention activities in the terrestrial subsurface involve the need to recover/emplace distributions of scalar quantities (e.g. dissolved phase concentrations or heat) from/in volumes of saturated porous media. These scalars can be targeted by pump-and-treat methods or by amendment technologies. Application examples include in-situ leaching for metals, recovery of dissolved contaminant plumes, or utilizing heat energy in geothermal reservoirs. While conventional pumping methods work reasonably well, costs associated with maintaining pumping schedules are high and improvements in efficiency would be welcome. In this paper we discuss how transient switching of the pressure at different wells can intimately control subsurface flow, generating a range of "programmed" flows with various beneficial characteristics. Some programs produce chaotic flows which accelerate mixing, while others create encapsulating flows which can isolate fluid zones for lengthy periods. In a simplified model of an aquifer subject to balanced pumping, chaotic flow topologies have been predicted theoretically and verified experimentally using Hele-Shaw cells. Here, a survey of the key characteristics of chaotic advection is presented. Mathematical methods are used to show how these characteristics may translate into practical situations involving regional flows and heterogeneity. The results are robust to perturbations, and withstand significant aquifer heterogeneity. It is proposed that chaotic advection may form the basis of new efficient technologies for groundwater interventions.     

Identifying crop vulnerability to groundwater abstraction: modelling and expert knowledge in a GIS

Water use is expected to increase and climate change scenarios indicate the need for more frequent water abstraction. Abstracting groundwater may have a detrimental effect on soil moisture availability for crop growth and yields. This work presents an elegant and robust method for identifying zones of crop vulnerability to abstraction. Archive groundwater level datasets were used to generate a composite groundwater surface that was subtracted from a digital terrain model. The result was the depth from surface to groundwater and identified areas underlain by shallow groundwater. Knowledge from an expert agronomist was used to define classes of risk in terms of their depth below ground level. Combining information on the permeability of geological drift types further refined the assessment of the risk of crop growth vulnerability. The nature of the mapped output is one that is easy to communicate to the intended farming audience because of the general familiarity of mapped information. Such Geographic Information System (GIS)-based products can play a significant role in the characterisation of catchments under the EU Water Framework Directive especially in the process of public liaison that is fundamental to the setting of priorities for management change. The creation of a baseline allows the impact of future increased water abstraction rates to be modelled and the vulnerability maps are in a format that can be readily understood by the various stakeholders. This methodology can readily be extended to encompass additional data layers and for a range of groundwater vulnerability issues including water resources, ecological impacts, nitrate and phosphorus.     

Toward quantification of the impact of 21st‐century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species’ extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best‐studied land‐cover type for use of remote‐sensing data. Using an open‐access 30‐m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest‐dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red‐list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data‐deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red‐list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data‐deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction‐risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets.     

Previous experience matters in the stalk-eyed fly <Emphasis Type="Italic">Teleopsis dalmanni</Emphasis>

Previous experiences can play a significant role in determining future behaviors. Winner and loser effects, where the outcome of previous aggressive encounters influences the behavioral approach to and outcomes of future conflicts, have been documented in many taxa and illustrate this phenomenon. These effects are prevalent in species that interact frequently because modulation of these potentially costly social interactions may influence fitness. Stalk-eyed flies of the dimorphic species Teleopsis dalmanni engage in frequent fights over food resources, as well as over access to harems of females, with larger males typically prevailing when size disparities exist. However, whether and how prior experience influences fighting decisions and outcomes remains unexplored. To test for winner and loser effects in stalk-eyed flies, sexually mature flies were paired in size-mismatched dyads to establish winning and losing experiences. After their first contest, the flies were paired with size-matched individuals and allowed to interact. We determined whether an initial winning or losing experience significantly altered the outcome probabilities in the second size-matched encounter. Initial winning experience did not significantly affect the second interaction, providing no evidence for a winner effect. However, initial losers were significantly more likely to lose a subsequent interaction which provides evidence for a loser effect in stalk-eyed flies. In addition, smaller males experienced an increased probability of losing their second interaction regardless of prior winning or losing experience. This effect was not seen in large males. Our data suggest that the loser effects we observed, which were more pronounced in small males, could result from the energetic costs of fighting that they were less able to absorb than large males.