Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

Sediment Availability and Erosion Rates on Off‐Highway Vehicle Trails in the Ouachita Mountains,USA

Factors influencing sediment availability are assessed and erosion rates are quantified for an off‐highway vehicle (OHV) trail system in the Ouachita Mountains of Arkansas. As of May 2012, the Wolf Pen Gap trail system included 77.0 km of "trails" which consist of county roads; open and closed Forest Service roads; and open and closed OHV trails. For a given trail length, the sediment volume available to be eroded is determined by bare trail width and sediment depth. Four condition types are defined that group trail sections based on statistically different trail widths or depths. Trail construction method appears to influence sediment availability differences more than erosion potential (as indexed by trail slope gradient and length). The range for annual trail erosion rates is estimated as 75 and 210 tonne/ha/yr. The high and low rates are obtained using two independent methods. The 210 tonne/ha/yr rate is computed from mean sediment capture at 30 sediment traps installed for 0.5–1.0 year. The 75 tonne/ha/yr rate is computed assuming all available trail sediment measured in a one‐time sampling is eroded over the next year. We argue in support of this assumption and suggest both rate values may be conservative. Trail erosion rates and sediment trap observations indicate frequent trap cleanout will be needed to continue sediment capture from All Terrain Vehicle trails.     

Toxicity testing of heavy metals with theRhizobium-legume symbiosis: High sensitivity to cadmium and arsenic compounds

Legume root nodules are the site of biological nitrogen fixation in theRhizobium-legame symbiosis. Nodules are structures unique to this symbiosis and they are morphologically as well as physiologically distinct from other plant organs. Organic substances affecting the macro- or microsymbionts vitality, such as PAHs (Wetzel et al., 1991), reduce nodulation even before visible damage to the plant can be detected. We present data that the formation of nodules (nodulation) may also serve for ecotoxicological evaluation of heavy metals in different binding states. Tests were performed in petri dishes with alfalfa (lucerne) seedlings inoculated withRhizobium meliloti. Cultivation took place in growth cabinets with carefully standardized and documented growth conditions. Data from stressed plants was recorded after 14 days of cultivation on contaminated substrate. A dose responsive decrease in nodulation was found after application of cadmium acetate, cadmium iodide, cadmium chloride, sodium salts of arsenate and arsenite, arsenic pentoxide, and lead nitrate, whereas lead acetate showed no effect up to a concentration of 3 μM. The dose response curves were used to calculate EC10, EC50 and EC90 values. EC50 values for cadmium compounds range from 1.5 to9.5 pM. Testing different arsenic compounds results in EC50 from 2.6 to 20.1 μM. EC50 of lead nitrate is 2.2 μM. The sensitivity, reproducibility and reliability of this test system is discussed compared to established biotests.     

Heavy Metal Content in Xylem Sap (Vitis Vinifera) from Mining and Smelting Areas

No data are available on the content of heavy metals in the xylem sap of grapevines growing in contaminated areas. The aim of this work was to obtain data on the concentration of Pb, Zn, Cd and Cu in the xylem sap of grapevine (Vitis vinifera) cultivar Monica (ungrafted), growing near contaminated sites: a smelter, an abandoned and an active mine, and to investigate relationships between xylem sap mineral composition and the heavy metal content of the soil. The concentrations of Pb, Zn, Cd and Cu in the sap were enhanced compared to that of the soil, ranging from 4.3 to 611.4 µg Pb , 801 to 6176 µg Zn , 2.5 to 45 µg Cd and 19.8 to 161 µg Cu . Dry matter of xylem sap was significantly related to the heavy metals content in xylem saps, but no significant relationship between the metals in sap and total and DTPA/TEA extractable metal fraction in soil was found.     

Morphological and Physiological Damage by Surfactant-Polluted Seaspray on Pinus pinea and Pinus halepensis

This paper reports morphological and physiological damage caused by polluted seaspray to coastal pine forests in Liguria (Northern Italy) and suggests the most reliable parameters for surfactant-pollution biomonitoring. Concentrations of surfactants in surface seawater, seaspray, and that deposited on Pinus halepensis and Pinus pinea needles were determined in samples from five sites. Decline of the pines in the Western part of Liguria was greater than in the East, and was associated with higher surfactant levels deposited on the crowns. Chloride content of needles was higher in damaged pines, even if it did not reach toxic levels. Stomata micromorphologies did not differ between species in the crown parts facing the sea, while differences were significant in the back crown parts that were not directly exposed to polluted sea breezes. Water content and noon water potential indicated interference in water relations of damaged trees. In conclusion, none of the investigated parameters was by itself a comprehensive index of surfactant damage. A simultaneous survey of several parameters is suggested to investigate the impact of surfactants on coastal vegetation. The most useful parameters were: directionality of crown damage, surfactant depositions on the needles, chloride accumulation in the needles, structural injury to epistomatal chambers, needle water content and potential.     

The erect ‘penis’ is a flag of submission in a female-dominated society: greetings in Serengeti spotted hyenas

In East Africa, spotted hyenas live in large clans in a highly structured society dominated by females. A clan is a fission-fusion society where members are often solitary or in small groups. Spotted hyenas have a ritualized greeting during which two individuals stand parallel and face in opposite directions. Both individuals usually lift their hind leg and sniff or lick the anogenital region of the other. The unique aspect of greetings between individuals is the prominent role of the erect penis in animals of both sex. Female spotted hyenas have fused outer labiae and a pseudo-penis formed by the clitoris which closely resembles the male penis and can be erected. During greetings subordinates signalled submission with gestures which were not necessarily reciprocated by the dominant participant. Asymmetries were most pronounced in greetings between adult females where the probability of asymmetries increased with the divergence in rank between partners. Greetings between adult females and males were uncommon and restricted to males above median rank, principally the alpha male. Models of primate affiliative behavior assume that benefits derived from social relationships with different individuals are not equal and that individuals are selected to maximize the benefits they receive from social relationships with others. The observed distribution of greetings between partners of different rank matched the predictions of these models. An examination of non-adaptive hypotheses on the evolution of the pseudo-penis demonstrated that the conventional scenario linking (initial) virilization of female genitalia with selection for female dominance does not explain either the initial virilization, nor the evolution of the pseudo-penis to its current form and use. We sketch a new scenario that links (1) initial virilization to the occurrence of neonatal siblicide amongst members of a twin litter, and (2) costs of maintenance, pseudo-penile control over copulation and male submission. Our analysis confirms previous adaptive hypotheses on the function of the pseudo-penis in greetings and suggests new hypotheses to account for hitherto unexplained features. Correspondence to: M.L. East     

Assessing Ecological Integrity of Ozark Rivers to Determine Suitability for Protective Status

Preservation of extraordinary natural resources, protection of water quality, and restoration of impaired waters require a strategy to identify and protect least-disturbed streams and rivers. We applied two objective, quantitative methods to determine stream ecological integrity of headwater reaches of 10 Ozark rivers, 5 with Wild and Scenic River federal protective status. Thirty-four variables representing macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage characteristics, in-stream habitat, riparian vegetation, water quality, and watershed attributes were quantified for each river and analyzed using two multivariate approaches. The first approach, cluster and discriminant analyses, identified two groups of river with only one variable (% forested watershed) reliably distinguishing groups. Our second approach employed ordinal scaling to compare variables for each river to conceptually ideal conditions that were developed as a composite of optimal attributes among the 10 rivers. The composite distance of each river from ideal was then calculated using a unidimensional ranking technique. Two rivers without Wild and Scenic River designation ranked highest relative to ideal (highest ecological integrity), and two others, also without designation, ranked most distant from ideal (lowest ecological integrity). Fish density, number of intolerant fish species, and invertebrate density were influential biotic variables for scaling. Contributing physical variables included riparian forest cover, water nitrate concentration, water turbidity, percentage of forested watershed, percentage of private land ownership, and road density. These methods provide a framework for refinement and application in other regions to facilitate the process of establishing least-disturbed reference conditions and identifying rivers for protection and restoration.     

Analysis of the spatio-temporal and semantic aspects of land-cover/use change dynamics 1991–2001 in Albania at national and district levels

In the turmoil of a rapidly changing economy the Albanian government needs accurate and timely information for management of their natural resources and formulation of land-use policies. The transformation of the forestry sector has required major changes in the legal, regulatory and management framework. The World Bank financed Albanian National Forest Inventory project provides an analysis of spatially explicit land-cover/use change dynamics in the period 1991–2001 using the FAO/UNEP Land Cover Classification System for codification of classes, satellite remote sensing and field survey for data collection and elements of the object-oriented geo-database approach to handle changes as an evolution of land-cover/use objects, i.e. polygons, over time to facilitate change dynamics analysis.Analysis results at national level show the trend of natural resources depletion in the form of modifications and conversions that lead to a gradual shift from land-cover/use types with a tree cover to less dense tree covers or even a complete removal of trees. Policy failure (e.g., corruption, lack of law enforcement) is seen as the underlying cause. Another major trend is urbanisation of areas near large urban centres that change urban-rural linkages. Furthermore, after privatisation agricultural areas increased in the hills where environmental effects may be detrimental, while prime agricultural land in the plains is lost to urbanisation.At district level, the local variability of spatially explicit land-cover/use changes shows different types of natural resources depletion. The distribution of changes indicates a regional prevalence, thus a decentralised approach to the natural resources management could be advocated.     

Investigation of sequential and enzymatic extraction of arsenic from drinking water distribution solids using ICP-MS

A sequential extraction approach was utilized to estimate the distribution of arsenite [As(iii)] and arsenate [As(v)] on iron oxide/hydroxide solids obtained from drinking water distribution systems. The arsenic (As) associated with these solids can be segregated into three operationally defined categories (exchangeable, amorphous and crystalline) according to the sequential extraction literature. The exchangeable As, for the six drinking water solids evaluated, was estimated using 10 mM MgCl(2) and 10 mM NaH(2)PO(4) and represented between 5-34% of the total As available from the solid. The amorphously bound As was estimated using 10 mM (NH(4))(2)C(2)O(4) and represented between 57-124% of the As available from the respective solid. Finally, the crystalline bound As was estimated using titanium citrate and this represented less than 1.5% of the As associated with the solids. A synthetic stomach/intestine extraction approach was also applied to the distribution solids. The stomach fluid was found to extract between 0.5-33.3 microg g(-1) As and 120-2,360 microg g(-1) iron (Fe). The As concentrations in the intestine fluid were between 0.02-0.04 microg g(-1) while the Fe concentration ranged from 0.06-0.7 microg g(-1) for the first six drinking water distribution solids. The elevated Fe levels associated with the stomach fluid were found to produce Fe based precipitates when the intestinal treatment was applied. Preliminary observations indicate that most of the aqueous Fe in the stomach fluid is ferric ion and the observed precipitate produced in the intestine fluid is consistent with the decreased solubility of ferric ion at the pH associated with the intestine.     

Antecedents and consequences of satisfaction with work–family balance: A moderating role of perceived insider status

This study developed a moderated mediation model to investigate how family‐supportive paid leave and supervision affect employees' satisfaction with work–family balance and in turn their affective organizational commitment and supervisor‐directed organizational citizenship behavior depending on their perceived insider status in the organization. Our analysis of data collected from 118 employee–supervisor dyads in Korean organizations revealed that satisfaction with work–family balance mediated the linkages from family‐supportive supervision to affective organizational commitment and supervisor‐directed organizational citizenship behavior, and the linkage from family‐supportive paid leave to affective organizational commitment. Results further showed that the entire mediational process for family‐supportive supervision was more pronounced for those who perceived themselves to be an insider of their organizations, while the same pattern was not found for the meditational process related to family‐supportive paid leave. Our findings provide theoretical implications for work–family balance research and offer practical suggestions to make employees satisfied with work–family balance.