Clustering of the abundance of West Nile virus vector mosquitoes in Peel Region,Ontario, Canada

Understanding the spatial–temporal distribution of vector mosquitoes is essential in designing an efficient mosquito control strategy to reduce the risk of the mosquito-borne disease. In this paper, we apply a non-parametric clustering method, CLUES, to the surveillance data of West Nile virus vector mosquitoes collected by light traps in Peel Region, Ontario, during the mosquito seasons in 2004–2010. In order to obtain robust and reliable results, a statistical smoothing procedure LOWESS is applied to the original time series data. It was found that the mosquito trap sites can be clustered into three groups. The weather impact on the mosquito abundance of each clustered group are similar, while the interannual variability and the highest abundance and peak time in each mosquito season are different. The impact of weather factors on this clustering is investigated.     

A hidden species-area curve

The species-area curve, which describes the relationship between the number of observed species in a geographical region and the area of the region, plays a central role in biogeography. Beyond its scientific importance, the species-area curve is commonly used to assess the loss of species due to habitat loss. When the species-area curve is estimated from spatial samples, the existence of species with low or highly spatially variable abundance exaggerates the true rate at which species accumulate with area. Here, a hidden species-area curve is defined that accounts for this sampling effect and its estimation by maximum likelihood is outlined. Both the species-area curve and the hidden species-area curve are conditioned on the observed species list; thus the analysis does not depend on the total number of observed and unobserved species, that is, species richness. The method is tested by sub-sampling some tropical forest data and found to work well. It is also applied to a classic data set from the deep sea. For these data, accounting for this sampling effect has a large impact.     

Prospective evaluation of designs for analysis of variance without knowledge of effect sizes

Estimation of design power requires knowledge of treatment effect size and error variance, which are often unavailable for ecological studies. In the absence of prior information on these parameters, investigators can compare an alternative to a reference design for the same treatment(s) in terms of its precision at equal sensitivity. This measure of relative performance calculates the fractional error variance allowed of the alternative for it to just match the power of the reference. Although first suggested as a design tool in the 1950s, it has received little analysis and no uptake by environmental scientists or ecologists. We calibrate relative performance against the better known criterion of relative efficiency, in order to reveal its unique advantage in controlling sensitivity when considering the precision of estimates. The two measures differ strongly for designs with low replication. For any given design, relative performance at least doubles with each doubling of effective sample size. We show that relative performance is robustly approximated by the ratio of reference to alternative $\alpha $ quantiles of the $F$ distribution, multiplied by the ratio of alternative to reference effective sample sizes. The proxy is easy to calculate, and consistent with exact measures. Approximate or exact measurement of relative performance serves a useful purpose in enumerating trade-offs between error variance and error degrees of freedom when considering whether to block random variation or to sample from a more or less restricted domain.     

非洲库存计划:清理陈旧农药,为了更加健康的未来作出贡献

经过近4年时间的准备之后,非洲即将开始一个创新的举措.非洲库存计划(ASP)是一个涉及非洲国家、国际机构、非政府组织、私营部门CropLife国际(CLI)和区域性团体的多风险承担者伙伴关系.非洲库存计划的目标是雄心勃勃的:在下一个10年到15年清理和处理整个非洲现有的库存农药,并帮助防止未来的农药积累,总成本约为2.5-3.0亿美元.幸亏有全球环境机构(GEF)的2500万美元的基本支持以及捐献国政府的共筹资金,在15个国家的第一阶段活动资金已经增加到5000多万美元.然而第一阶段的工作和第二阶段计划仍然需要另外的2000万美元资金.     

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.     

Preliminary assessment of surface soil lead concentrations in Melbourne,Australia

Urban soils in many cities have been found to be contaminated with lead from past usage of leaded petrol, deteriorating lead-based exterior paints and industrial sources. Currently, the spatial distribution of soil lead concentrations in the Melbourne metropolitan area is unknown. The objective of this study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the spatial distributions of the surface soil lead (Pb) concentrations in the Melbourne metropolitan area, Australia. Fifty-eight surface soil samples were collected at a depth of 0–2 cm along three linear transects oriented across the Melbourne metropolitan area. Surface soil samples were also collected at a higher density in five Melbourne suburbs. Soil cores (0–50 cm) were collected in four locations, soil transects were collected at intervals with distance away from the roadway (0–50 m) in two inner city parks, and one control soil sample was collected in a rural setting. The median soil Pb concentration of the soil transect samples was 173 mg/kg (range 32–710 mg/kg), and the median soil Pb concentration of the five suburbs was 69 mg/kg (range 9–1750 mg/kg). The suburb of Footscray had the highest soil Pb concentration with a median soil Pb concentration of 192 mg/kg (range 40–1750 mg/kg). Soil Pb concentrations were generally higher nearest the centre of the Melbourne metropolitan area and in the west of Melbourne and lower in the outer suburbs to the east and north of the city centre. Soil Pb concentrations decreased with distance from roadways in the two transects taken from urban parks, and soil lead decreased with depth in the four soil cores. The soil Pb concentrations in the Melbourne metropolitan area appear to be lower than soil lead concentrations observed in inner city areas of Sydney New South Wales (NSW) and Newcastle NSW. The spatial extent of the soil Pb hazard remains undefined in portions of the Melbourne metropolitan area.     

Non-indigenous macroalga hosts different epiphytic assemblages to conspecific natives in southeast Australia

Codium fragile ssp. tomentosoides is one of the five most invasive macroalgae worldwide. We compared epiphytic assemblages between native (ssp. tasmanicum and ssp. novae-zelandiae combined) and non-indigenous (ssp. tomentosoides) subspecies of Codium fragile on three rocky intertidal shores in southeast Australia. Twelve species of epiphytes covered up to 20% of the surface of both native and non-indigenous Codium subspecies, but none were unique to either subspecies. For C. fragile subspecies, epiphytic cover declined from the lower (older) parts of the thallus to the branch tips. The abundance and species composition of epiphytes differed significantly between native and non-indigenous C. fragile, but differences varied among rocky shores. Results demonstrate that non-indigenous C. fragile does not play a functionally similar role to closely related native Codium subspecies. Spatial differences in epiphytic assemblages between Codium subspecies among rocky shores demonstrate that effects of non-indigenous species may be strongly location specific. Thus, our study emphasises the need to investigate variation in the effects of invaders across the regional landscape.     

Estimating dispersal potential for marine larvae: dynamic models applied to scleractinian corals

Dispersal influences ecological dynamics, evolution, biogeography, and biodiversity conservation, but models of larval dispersal in marine organisms make simplifying assumptions that are likely to approximate poorly the temporal dynamics of larval survival and capacity for settlement. In particular, larval mortality rates are typically assumed to be constant throughout larval life; and all larvae are frequently assumed to acquire and lose competence at the same time. To improve upon these assumptions, we here develop simple models of dispersal potential that incorporate rates of mortality, and acquisition and loss of settlement competence. We fit these models to empirical competence and survival data for five scleractinian coral species, to test the models' ability to characterize empirical survival and competence patterns, and to estimate the dispersal potential implied by those patterns. The models fit the data well, incorporating qualitative features of competence and survival that traditional approaches to modeling dispersal do not, with important implications for dispersal potential. Most notably, there was high within-cohort variation in the duration of the competent period in all species, and this variation increases both self-recruitment and long-distance dispersal compared with models assuming a fixed competent period. These findings help to explain the seeming paradox of high genetic population structure, coupled with large geographic range size, observed in many coral species. More broadly, our approach offers a way to parsimoniously account for variation in competence dynamics in dispersal models, a phenomenon that our results suggest has important effects on patterns of connectivity in marine metapopulations.     

Fertilization in a suite of coastal marine invertebrates from SE Australia is robust to near-future ocean warming and acidification

Climate change driven ocean acidification and hypercapnia may have a negative impact on fertilization in marine organisms because of the narcotic effect these stressors exert on sperm. In contrast, warmer, less viscous water may have a positive influence on sperm swimming speed and so ocean warming may enhance fertilization. To address questions on future vulnerabilities we examined the interactive effects of near-future ocean warming and ocean acidification/hypercapnia on fertilization in intertidal and shallow subtidal echinoids (Heliocidaris erythrogramma, H. tuberculata, Tripneustes gratilla, Centrostephanus rodgersii), an asteroid (Patiriella regularis) and an abalone (Haliotis coccoradiata). Batches of eggs from multiple females were fertilized by sperm from multiple males in all combinations of three temperature and three \textpH/P_\textCO2 {\text{pH}}/P_{{{\text{CO}}_{2} }} treatments. Experiments were placed in the setting of projected near-future conditions for southeast Australia, an ocean change hot spot. There was no significant effect of warming and acidification on the percentage of fertilization. These results indicate that fertilization in these species is robust to temperature and \textpH/P_\textCO2 {\text{pH}}/P_{{{\text{CO}}_{2} }} fluctuation. This may reflect adaptation to the marked fluctuation in temperature and pH that characterises their shallow water coastal habitats. Efforts to identify potential impacts of ocean change to the life histories of coastal marine invertebrates are best to focus on more vulnerable embryonic and larval stages because of their long time in the water column where seawater chemistry and temperature have a major impact on development.