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391.
Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kepner WG Semmens DJ Bassett SD Mouat DA Goodrich DC 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2004,94(1-3):115-127
Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology. 相似文献
392.
One feature of climate change is the trends to earlier spring onset in many north temperate areas of the world. The timing of spring flowering and leafing of perennial plants is largely controlled by temperature accumulation; both temperature and phenological records illustrate changes in recent decades. Phenology studies date back over a century, with extensive databases existing for western Canada. Earlier spring flowering has been noted for many woody plants, with larger trends seen for species that develop at spring's start. Implications for ecosystems of trends to earlier spring arrival include changes in plant species composition, changes in timing and distribution of pests and disease, and potentially disrupted ecological interactions. While Alberta has extensive phenology databases (for species, years, and geographic coverage) for recent decades, these data cannot provide continuous ground coverage. There is great potential for phenological data to provide ground validation for satellite imagery interpretation, especially as new remote sensors are becoming available. Phenological networks are experiencing a resurgence of interest in Canada (www.plantwatch.ca) and globally, and linking these ground-based observations with the view from space will greatly enhance our capacity to track the biotic response to climate changes. 相似文献
393.
Pietrantonio M Calace N Petronio BM Pietroletti M 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2003,5(3):451-454
An approach based on the number of extractions performed over time was applied to study the time necessary to attain equilibrium conditions between the different chemical forms present in two natural soils laboratory-loaded with heavy metals (Cu(II), Pb(II), Zn(II)). The influence of some soil parameters, such as pH value, cation exchange capacity and organic matter content, on the equilibrium time was evidenced both by the different nature of the soils and by the treatment of soils with paper mill sludge. Equilibrium conditions were determined by studying the metal partitioning in the soil on a case by case basis. The behaviour of the three metals was not the same, and the conditions of equilibrium among the different chemical forms were the result of the amount of heavy metals added as well as of the nature of the soil. 相似文献
394.
Kristina?D.?RothleyEmail author Charlene?Rae 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,10(2):107-113
In this paper we apply graph theory in a reserve selection exercise to explore the tradeoffs between maintaining connectivity and minimizing the total area of a protected area network. Rather than focus on a single organism, we used a multi-species approach and looked at the tradeoff curves for organisms with varying dispersal abilities. We first generated the tradeoff curves using a graph-based metric to determine the importance of individual patches for maintaining connectivity. We then performed an analogous set of analyses using patch size as a surrogate measure of importance. 相似文献
395.
Reash RJ 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2004,96(1-3):203-220
An in situ chemical and biological study was conducted in the lower Muskingum River (southeast Ohio, U.S.A.) to evaluate potential effects of copper (Cu) discharged from a coal ash effluent. Effluent total Cu, dissolved Cu, TSS and pH measurements were performed monthly during January-December 1995. Benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled at five river locations using artificial substrate samplers, and in situ Cu analyses were conducted. Effluent Cu (total) ranged from 8 to 142 microg L(-1) (mean = 58 microg L(-1)), but dissolved Cu never exceeded 78 microg L(-1) (mean = 20 microg L(-1)). The mean ratio of dissolved Cu to total Cu in these samples was 32%. Total Cu concentrations at the biological sampling sites adjacent to the effluent discharge were higher than levels at ambient sites, but dissolved Cu levels were similar among all sites. The macroinvertebrate community proximal to the coal ash effluent had the highest number of taxa and total number of individuals; a high number of mayfly and caddis fly taxa; and the highest Invertebrate Community Index score. The high water velocity of the discharge (which likely contained particulate organic matter) apparently created a favorable microhabitat that, combined with Cu-complexing constituents in the discharge, superceded potential adverse effects of high Cu levels. This study emphasizes the importance of instream biological data when obtained in conjunction with chemical analyses. 相似文献
396.
During the last 10–15 years heuristic methods have been developed for problems in optimal reserve selection. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that heuristics will find optimal solutions. In recognizing this limitation, analysts have formulated reserve selection problems as set covering problems, for which matrix reduction and integer (0/1) programming can be used to find optimal solutions. In this paper we restate the set covering formulation and review solution techniques. A new 0/1 programming model, which is a generalization of the set covering model, is then presented and applied to a hypothetical reserve selection problem. Objectives of minimizing the number of sites selected and maximizing the number of species represented are addressed. Solutions which characterize the tradeoffs between these objectives provide a rich set of information for planners and decision makers. Applications of mathematical programming to related problems in land use planning and forestry are also discussed. 相似文献
397.
K. Stamatelatou G. Lyberatos C. Tsiligiannis S. Pavlou P. Pullammanappallil S.A. Svoronos 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》1997,2(4):355-363
Anaerobic digester failure due to entry of inhibitors or sudden changes in the feed substrate concentration may be encompassed beneficially by applying optimal control theory. An almost proportional relationship between the dilution rate and the methane production rate leads to a simple suboptimal control law with only minor loss in performance, after the occurrence of the above mentioned events. 相似文献
398.
A.J. McMichael 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》1997,2(3):129-137
Estimating the future health impact of global environmental change requires scientific methods that extend beyond conventional health risk assessment in relation to existing exposures. The dynamic and non‐linear nature of these changes in large complex biophysical systems, the interactions between them, and the reference to future scenarios all contribute uncertainty. Potential health impacts can be estimated from historical analogues, by mathematical modelling, or by reasonable foresight (especially in relation to social and economic disruptions). Integrated assessment methods draw upon all these techniques. In particular, integrated mathematical modelling techniques are evolving, as scientists (and policy‐makers) come to terms with this complex scenario‐based impact assessment task. 相似文献
399.
During the last decades, considerable research on methane production in the rumen and its inhibition has been carried out. Initially, as methane production represents a significant loss of gross energy in the feed (2–15%), the ultimate goal of such intervention in rumen fermentation was an increase in feed efficiency. A second reason favouring research on methane inhibition is its role in the global warming phenomenon and in the destruction of the ozone layer. In this review, the authors describe briefly several interventions for reducing methane emission by ruminants. The objective can be reached by intervention at the dietary level by ration manipulation (composition, feeding level) or by the use of additives or supplements. Examples of additives are polyhalogenated compounds, ionophores and other antibiotics. Supplementation of the ration with lipids also lowered methanogenesis. More biotechnological interventions, e.g., defaunation, probiotics and introduction of reductive acetogenesis in the rumen, are also mentioned. It can be concluded that drastic inhibition of methane production is not unequivocally successful as a result of several factors, such as: instantaneous inhibition often followed by restoration of methanogenesis due to adaptation of the microbes or degradation of the additive, toxicity for the host animal, negative effects on overall digestion and productive performance. Therefore, methanogenesis and its inhibition cannot be considered as a separate part of rumen fermentation and its consequences on the animal should be taken into account. 相似文献
400.
W. Henry McNab 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1996,39(1-3):215-229
Five local ecological types based on vegetative communities and two landscape types based on groups of communities, were identified by integrating landform, soil, and vegetation components using multivariate techniques. Elevation and several topographic and soil variables were highly correlated with types of both scales. Landscape ecological types based only on landform and soil variables without vegetation did not correspond with types developed using vegetation. Models developed from these relationships could allow classification and mapping of extensive areas using geographic information systems. 相似文献