Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test.     

Interactions between metals accumulated in the narrow-clawed crayfish Astacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823) in Dikilitaş Lake,Turkey

The accumulations of Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn in the exoskeleton, gills, hepatopancreas and abdominal muscles of crayfish Astacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823) were determined. The strongest correlation observed was between Cr and Ni in the gills (r?=?0.904); moderate to strong correlations between Al, Cr, Fe, Ni and Cu were also observed in gill tissue. Disregarding the gills, the strongest correlation was found between Cu and Zn in the hepatopancreas (r?=?0.808); the correlation between these two metals might have been a result of metallothionein activity. The accumulation of Pb was found to correlate with that of Cd in the exoskeleton, Cd and Zn in the gills, Zn and Cu in the hepatopancreas and Cu in the abdominal muscle. None of these correlations were present in lakewater and sediment samples, suggesting that the crayfish metabolism may be responsible for the co-accumulation of metal–metal pairs. As all correlations in non-gill tissues are observed between divalent metals, a shared transporter such as divalent metal transporter 1 might be involved in the accumulation of these metals.