Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

环境样品中 PCBs 的测定

通过碱解、酸洗、萃取、净化、浓缩、脱硫等步骤处理实际样品,利用毛细管柱GC/ECD进行PCBs的定性和定量.方法定性准确,定量良好,具有较高的回收率.各同系物的方法检出限,水样为0.01～0.08ng/L;土壤样为0.003～0.03μg/kg,可以应用于土壤、沉积物、水样、油样等环境样品中PCBs的测定     

Determination of organophosphorus pesticides and related compounds in water samples by membrane extraction and gas chromatography

A membrane extraction-gas chromatography method was developed fordetermination of organophosphorus pesticides and related compounds including methamidophos, DDVP, dimethoate, methyl parathion, parathion, thiophosphoric acid trimethyl ester, and thiophosphoramidic acid dimethyl ester in water samples. In thismethod, surface-modified acetic cellulose membranes were used to extract the target analytes in water samples, the extracted analytes were back-extracted into a small amount of methanol, andgas chromatography with pulsed flame photometric detector (GC-PFPD) was used to determine the concentrations of targetanalytes in the extracts. The recoveries obtained for thetarget analytes spiked into the water samples ranged from 66to 94%. The method detection limit for each target analyte was 0.05 g L^-1. The method developed in this study had shown the advantages of being cheap, simple, fast, and reliable. It had been used successfully to determine the concentrations of target analytes in river water samples.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

昌吉州生态环境现状调查

通过对昌吉州近年生态环境保护工作及建设的概述,并对“八五”末期和“九五”末期生态环境现状的对比,说明昌吉州生态环境存在的问题,为生态环境保护规划和生态建设决策提供可靠的依据。     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

用蚕豆叶尖微核技术筛选对环境污染物敏感品种

为了筛选蚕豆叶尖微核监测技术敏感材料,以二甲苯为污染物,对甘肃产的10个蚕豆品种进行了测试。结果表明,蚕引8号微核出现率与二甲苯诱变剂浓度成正比,平均微核率差异极显著,是监测评价二甲苯污染的敏感品种。     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.