重大疫情衍生社会恐慌链式灾害应急策略研究——基于COVID-19疫情的SD分析

重大疫情传染的负外部性在严重损害公众健康的同时衍生社会恐慌,这是保障人民生命安全和社会稳定的国家治理现代化背景下,一个新风险源和应急管理难题.基于灾害链视角,运用系统动力学(SD)方法对经典的传染病SIR模型进行升级与转化,构建一个同时包含疫情动态传播及其衍生社会恐慌的链式灾害应急系统模型,以COVID-19疫情为例进...     

粤港澳大湾区吸收性气溶胶的解析

为了解粤港澳（Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao,GHM）大湾区气溶胶污染现状,基于OMAERUV日产品数据,对粤港澳大湾区2008~2019年吸收性气溶胶指数（ultraviolet aerosol index,UVAI）的时空分布、未来趋势变化和潜在源区进行了分析,并对其影响因素进行了探讨.结果表明,GHM大湾区年时间序列上UVAI呈现出下降的趋势,年均下降为2.3%;月时间序列上从春季开始呈现倒"V"形,季节特征春季最高,冬、秋次之,夏季最低;空间上呈现中部区域一直属于高值区,12年年均UVAI高达0.35;UVAI分布在时间序列主要表现为可持续,有82.69%的区域在未来UVAI将呈现下降的趋势;GHM大湾区外部潜在源主要是东部工业产生的碳质源和海洋带来的生物源;UVAI潜在源区春季以碳质源和生物质源为主,夏季以生物质气溶胶源为主,秋季以碳质源占比最大,冬季沙尘性质气溶胶源有所增加;通过相关性分析,气溶胶和PM_2.5之间是相互依附的关系,工业生产活动是大气气溶胶的重要组成部分,降水可以降低大气中因工业生成所产生的气溶胶含量,第二产业活动在气温升高的情况下会加快气溶胶的生成.     

Role of nitrification inhibitor DMPP( 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate) in NO3--N accumulation in greengrocery(Brassica campestris L. Ssp. Chinensis )and vegetable soil

The influence of nitrification inhibitor(NI) 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on nitrate accumulation in greengrocery ( Brassica campestris L. ssp. chinensis) and vegetable soil at surface layer were investigated in field experiments in 2002 and 2003.Results showed that NI DMPP took no significant effect on yields of edible parts of greengrocery, but it could significantly decrease NO3^--N concentration in greengrocery and in vegetable soil at surface layer. In addition, NI DMPP could reduce the NO3^--N concentration during the prophase stage of storage.     

固定化芽孢杆菌对地表水中油的降解

采用梅花状聚乙烯醇复合载体对芽孢杆菌(Bacillus sp.)进行固定化包埋,研究固定化细菌在不同接种量、不同的油浓度下对油的降解效果.结果表明:固定化细菌的最宜接种量为5%,当油初始浓度为10-150 mg·l-1时,固定化细菌对油的降解趋势是一致的.在相同的时间内,固定化细菌对油的降解率和CODCr去除率高于游离菌,120h时,固定化细菌对油的降解率可达72.19%,对CODCr的去除率达到70.23%;而游离细菌对油的降解率仅为41.56%,对CODCr的去除率仅为39.56%.     

基于物质流分析的天津市资源生产力

在物质流分析的基础上,根据资源生产力指标,对天津市1996-2007年间的资源生产力进行了分析。结果表明:天津市的资源生产力总体呈上升趋势,总物质资源生产力由1996年的2 293.76元/t上升到2007年的4896.12元/t,增长到2.13倍,年平均递增236.58元/t。在劳动资源生产力、土地资源生产力、水资源生产力、能源资源生产力、进出口物质资源生产力中,劳动资源生产力年平均递增最高,为0.58万元/人,农业水资源生产力最低,年平均递增仅为0.7元/t。随后,应用IPAT模型分析了环境负荷(或资源消耗)与GDP之间的关系,天津市的环境负荷(或资源消耗)随GDP的增长而上升,实现"脱钩"至少应使资源生产力提高2.2倍以上。最后,针对天津市资源生产力分析结果,提出了提高资源生产力的相应建议。     

区域轨道交通系统节点重要度及故障恢复研究

为提高区域轨道交通系统(RRTS)正常运营下的可靠性和故障情况下的弹性,分析区域轨道交通网络(RRTN)的拓扑特性,构建拓扑结构弹性评价模型,实现突发条件下系统弹性的定量评价;提出一种基于系统弹性的结构评价方法,根据节点重要度评价,识别出系统关键节点;应用弹性损失三角形,进行多种故障情况下系统最优恢复策略研究.结果 表...     

鄱阳湖不同湿地植物生物炭衍生DOM的光谱特征

目前有关天然湿地植物生物炭衍生溶解性有机质（BDOM）光谱特征尚缺乏系统的分析,因此,本研究采用紫外可见吸收光谱、三维荧光光谱结合平行因子分析法（PARAFAC）、荧光区域积分法（FRI）对鄱阳湖3种湿地植物（苔草、南荻和芦苇）的物质组成和光谱特征进行了分析.结果表明,热解温度对湿地植物BDOM的生物地球化学特征有很大影响,随热解温度的升高其稳定性提高,在500℃及以上的热解温度下可产生有效固碳生物炭.热解温度是影响BDOM释放的关键因子,BDOM释放量与温度呈显著负相关.BDOM释放含量总体上呈苔草>南荻>芦苇的规律.随着热解温度的升高,BDOM的分子量、类蛋白质浓度、有色溶解性有机质相对丰度、富里酸比例和芳香性逐渐下降,而腐殖化程度、自生源成分则先上升后下降.此外,通过PARAFAC解析出2个类腐殖质组分和2个类蛋白质组分,且苔草BDOM中荧光组分总体多于南荻和芦苇.FRI结果表明,300℃下BDOM以类富里酸为主,其他条件下BDOM以络氨酸类蛋白质、色氨酸类蛋白质为主.并且,本研究利用主成分分析进一步探究了这些光谱参数间的相互关系,结果表明,苔草的溶解性有机碳含量、蛋...     

进口废物管理目录研究

进口废物管理目录是我国进口废物管理的一项基本制度。通过梳理该目录的发展过程,介绍了其制定原则、适用范围以及依据环境污染风险为基础的差别化管理制度。同时指出：进口废物管理目录存在着先天性设计不足、不细致,目录动态调整过程缺乏严格调整程序和方法等问题,建议相关管理部门尽快明确进口废物目录调整程序及原则,并探索新的废物管理目录模式。     

The importance of incorporating functional habitats into conservation planning for highly mobile species in dynamic systems

The distribution of mobile species in dynamic systems can vary greatly over time and space. Estimating their population size and geographic range can be problematic and affect the accuracy of conservation assessments. Scarce data on mobile species and the resources they need can also limit the type of analytical approaches available to derive such estimates. We quantified change in availability and use of key ecological resources required for breeding for a critically endangered nomadic habitat specialist, the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor). We compared estimates of occupied habitat derived from dynamic presence‐background (i.e., presence‐only data) climatic models with estimates derived from dynamic occupancy models that included a direct measure of food availability. We then compared estimates that incorporate fine‐resolution spatial data on the availability of key ecological resources (i.e., functional habitats) with more common approaches that focus on broader climatic suitability or vegetation cover (due to the absence of fine‐resolution data). The occupancy models produced significantly (P < 0.001) smaller (up to an order of magnitude) and more spatially discrete estimates of the total occupied area than climate‐based models. The spatial location and extent of the total area occupied with the occupancy models was highly variable between years (131 and 1498 km²). Estimates accounting for the area of functional habitats were significantly smaller (2–58% [SD 16]) than estimates based only on the total area occupied. An increase or decrease in the area of one functional habitat (foraging or nesting) did not necessarily correspond to an increase or decrease in the other. Thus, an increase in the extent of occupied area may not equate to improved habitat quality or function. We argue these patterns are typical for mobile resource specialists but often go unnoticed because of limited data over relevant spatial and temporal scales and lack of spatial data on the availability of key resources. Understanding changes in the relative availability of functional habitats is crucial to informing conservation planning and accurately assessing extinction risk for mobile resource specialists.     

International retirement migration in the Alicante region,Spain: process,spatial pattern and environmental impacts

International retirement migration has become an increasing phenomenon in the Mediterranean region of Alicante, Spain. Through an interdisciplinary approach, relationships between the migration process, landscape change and environmental impacts are examined. Lifestyle-related perceptions and demands of UK retirees are studied as a major driving force of urbanisation. The extent and quality of the process is assessed by statistical and land use data analysis. Results reveal a distinctive spatial pattern of in-migration and the emergence of an archetypical landscape, consisting of a mosaic of remaining natural and urbanised landscape along the Mediterranean coast. The paper discusses the necessity of retirees' integration into sustainable planning and decision making.