区域环境-经济系统物质流与能流分析方法及实证研究

物质和能量流动是环境-经济系统正常运行的基本条件,研究原料、能源转化为产品和废弃物的代谢过程及环境影响,对于提高资源生产力,从根本上解决资源环境问题至关重要。参考区域物质流分析和能流分析方法,提出了区域物质流与能流分析的概念和研究框架,并对天津市1998-2007年间的物质流和能量流进行了实证研究。结果显示:2007年天津市物质消耗为97.25×10⁶ t,能源消耗为47.15×10⁶ tce,年均增长率分别超过10%和8%;外部调入物质约占直接物质输入量的46%,其中煤炭占了约40%,且完全依赖外部调入;资源消耗强度较高、产出率较低,导致资源大量消耗、污染物排放总量持续增长,这对区域资源环境产生了较大压力,环境容量总体处于饱和状态。最后针对存在的问题提出了相应措施与建议。     

Correlation between pelagic larval duration and realised dispersal: long-distance genetic connectivity between northern New Zealand and the Kermadec Islands archipelago

The extent to which marine populations are “open” (panmixia) or “closed” (self-recruitment) remains a matter of much debate, with recent reports of high levels of genetic differentiation and self-recruitment among populations of numerous species separated by short geographic. However, the interpretation of patterns of gene flow (connectivity) is often based on a stepping stone model of dispersal that can genetically homogenise even distant populations and blur genetic patterns that may better reflect realised dispersal. One way in which realised long-distance dispersal can be accurately determined is by examination of gene flow of taxa between isolated archipelagos and a mainland where there is no possible stepping stone dispersal across the open ocean. We investigated the genetic structuring of populations of the intertidal gastropod Nerita melanotragus from the subtropical Kermadec Islands and temperate New Zealand’s North Island (the mainland), separated by 750 km of open ocean and characterised by contrasting environmental conditions. Analyses of seven microsatellite markers revealed an absence of genetic structuring with low F _ST and Jost’s D values (from 0.000 to 0.007 and from 0.000 to 0.015, respectively) over large geographic distances and no evidence of isolation by distance among all populations. These results indicate that the realised dispersal of N. melanotragus is of at least 750 km, this species exhibits a very “open” form of connectivity and its larvae exhibit sufficient phenotypic plasticity to settle successfully in different environmental conditions, ranging from subtropical to cool temperate.     

Use Impairments and Ecosystem Impacts of the New York Bight

The New York Bight is perhaps one of the most used and abused coastal areas in the world as a consequence of urbanization and the disposal of the waste of some 20 million people who reside by its shores and surrounding bays and estuaries. A variety of sources, including those associated with sewage wastes, industrial wastes, contaminated dredged material, urban runoff, and atmospheric fallout contaminate these coastal waters. Many of the stresses of excess population and industrialization as measured by pollutant loadings and ecosystem impacts can be crudely quantified in terms of use impairments-use impairments that have measurable social and economic relevance. Five broad categories of impairment attributed to pollution in the Bight that are causing significant losses of ecological, economic, or social values are: beach closures, unsafe seafoods, hazards to commercial and recreational navigation, loss of commercial and recreational fisheries, and declines in birds, mammals and turtles. These impairments are generally caused by floatable wastes, nutrients, toxicants, pathogens and habitat loss. Measures of such impairments are not standard, nor in many cases totally quantifiable. We have examined specific subsets of these impairments in terms of their spatial and temporal changes and as a first approximation determined the economic and social significance of these changes. the cost of these impaired uses of the Bight are measured in terms of billions of dollars annually for New York and New Jersey.     

天津市工业能源消费碳排放量核算及影响因素分解

天津市工业经济的快速发展促使其能源消费量持续增加,已经成为该市能源消费的主体.建立能源消费的碳排放核算方法,对天津市工业能源消费碳排放量的时间序列进行分析.结果表明:在过去10 a内天津市工业能源消费的碳排放量年均增长10.41%,比工业增加值平均增速低58.53%;工业能源强度持续下降,万元(104元)增加值碳排放强度整体呈下降趋势,由1999年的2.38 t/万元降至2009年的0.68 t/万元,表明工业节能减排效果较明显;在工业终端能源消费结构中,煤炭占57.80%,高于北京、上海等地.采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)对工业经济规模、行业结构、能源效率和能源结构等因素进行分析.结果表明:工业经济规模是碳排放持续增长的主导原因;行业结构、能源结构整体上对碳排放量影响较小;能源利用效率提高是工业节能减排成效的最主要贡献因素,对碳排放量变化的贡献率达-140.80%.通过对天津市工业行业的进一步分析可知,能源密集型行业严重影响了工业能源消费碳排放量的变化.      

Development and evaluation of a Naïve Bayesian model for coding causation of workers’ compensation claims

IntroductionTracking and trending rates of injuries and illnesses classified as musculoskeletal disorders caused by ergonomic risk factors such as overexertion and repetitive motion (MSDs) and slips, trips, or falls (STFs) in different industry sectors is of high interest to many researchers. Unfortunately, identifying the cause of injuries and illnesses in large datasets such as workers’ compensation systems often requires reading and coding the free form accident text narrative for potentially millions of records.MethodTo alleviate the need for manual coding, this paper describes and evaluates a computer auto-coding algorithm that demonstrated the ability to code millions of claims quickly and accurately by learning from a set of previously manually coded claims.ConclusionsThe auto-coding program was able to code claims as a musculoskeletal disorders, STF or other with approximately 90% accuracy.Impact on industryThe program developed and discussed in this paper provides an accurate and efficient method for identifying the causation of workers' compensation claims as a STF or MSD in a large database based on the unstructured text narrative and resulting injury diagnoses. The program coded thousands of claims in minutes. The method described in this paper can be used by researchers and practitioners to relieve the manual burden of reading and identifying the causation of claims as a STF or MSD. Furthermore, the method can be easily generalized to code/classify other unstructured text narratives.     

Radionuclide transport above a near-surface water table: IV. Soil migration and crop uptake of chlorine-36 and technetium-99, 1990 to 1993

Vertical distributions of (36)Cl and (99)Tc are presented from deep and shallow lysimeters above artificially controlled water tables for a 4-yr experiment from 1990 to 1993. Activity concentration profiles were all measured in late summer when a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Pastiche) crop was harvested. After harvest, activity concentrations in different organs of the crop were determined and crop uptake quantified as both an inventory ratio (IR) and a transfer factor (TF(w)), weighted to account for differential root and radionuclide distributions within the soil profile. Vertical distributions of radionuclides, crop roots within the soil, and IR and TF(w) values were each subjected to analysis of variance to estimate the individual and combined effects of soil depth and the year of the experiment on the results obtained. Chlorine-36 and (99)Tc exhibited highly significant variations in activity concentrations with soil depth and from year to year, indicating considerable physical mobility of both radionuclides. Soil-to-plant transfer was also high for both radionuclides compared with data obtained for gamma-emitting radionuclides. The IR values indicated that up to 40% of (36)Cl was incorporated in the crop's tissues at harvest, compared with a maximum of less than 1% for the less mobile gamma-emitting radionuclides. On the basis of the TF(w) values determined, (36)Cl uptake by winter wheat exceeded (99)Tc uptake, indicating that (36)Cl is highly bioavailable. Factors controlling the migration and bioavailability of both (36)Cl and (99)Tc in soils are discussed.     

Thermodynamic properties of several soil- and sediment-derived natural organic materials

Improved understanding of the structure of soil- and sediment-derived organic matter is critical to elucidating the mechanisms that control the reactivity and transport of contaminants in the environment. This work focuses on an experimental investigation of thermodynamic properties that are a function of the macromolecular structure of natural organic matter (NOM). A suite of thermal analysis instruments were employed to quantify glass transition temperatures (Tg), constant-pressure specific heat capacities (Cp), and thermal expansion coefficients (alpha) of several International Humic Substances Society (IHSS) soil-, sediment-, and aquatic-derived NOMs. Thermal mechanical analysis (TMA) of selected NOMs identified Tgs between 36 and 72 degrees C, and alphas ranging from 11 mum/m degrees C below the Tg to 242 mum/m degrees C above the Tg. Standard differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and temperature-modulated differential scanning calorimetry (TMDSC) measurements provided additional evidence of glass transition behavior, including identification of multiple transition behavior in two aquatic samples. TMDSC also provided quantitative measures of Cp at 0 and 25 degrees C, ranging from 1.27 to 1.44 J/g degrees C. Results from TMA, DSC, and TMDSC analyses are consistent with glass transition theories for organic macromolecules, and the glass transition behavior of other NOM materials reported in previous studies. Discussion of the importance of quantifying these thermodynamic properties is presented in terms of improved physical and chemical characterization of NOM structures, and in terms of providing constraints to molecular simulation models of NOM structures.     

Use Impairments and Ecosystem Impacts of the New York Bight

The New York Bight is perhaps one of the most used and abused coastal areas in the world as a consequence of urbanization and the disposal of the waste of some 20 million people who reside by its shores and surrounding bays and estuaries. A variety of sources, including those associated with sewage wastes, industrial wastes, contaminated dredged material, urban runoff, and atmospheric fallout contaminate these coastal waters. Many of the stresses of excess population and industrialization as measured by pollutant loadings and ecosystem impacts can be crudely quantified in terms of use impairments-use impairments that have measurable social and economic relevance. Five broad categories of impairment attributed to pollution in the Bight that are causing significant losses of ecological, economic, or social values are: beach closures, unsafe seafoods, hazards to commercial and recreational navigation, loss of commercial and recreational fisheries, and declines in birds, mammals and turtles. These impairments are generally caused by floatable wastes, nutrients, toxicants, pathogens and habitat loss. Measures of such impairments are not standard, nor in many cases totally quantifiable. We have examined specific subsets of these impairments in terms of their spatial and temporal changes and as a first approximation determined the economic and social significance of these changes. the cost of these impaired uses of the Bight are measured in terms of billions of dollars annually for New York and New Jersey.