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81.
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Judith Bell Jørgen Hilden Francis Bowling John Pearn Arthur Brownlea Nicole Martina 《黑龙江环境通报》1986,6(1):1-11
From the public health point of view, several formal attempts have been made to measure the impact of prenatal diagnosis (PND) on the incidence of Down's Syndrome (DS), but the results have varied widely. The impact of PND (reduction in the birth rate of chromosomally abnormal neonates) is related to utilization rates but quantitative estimates of this have not been established. In a three-year (1981–1983) total population study from Queensland, Australia, we present results to measure the impact of a voluntary PND programme on the birth incidence of DS, and also other chromosomally abnormal births. Utilization rates for the PND service were 15·5 per cent in that population of mothers 35 years and over. Numbers and rates of all cases of chromosomal abnormalities are presented, subclassified by type of diagnosis–-either by PND or by clinical diagnosis after birth. For the total population, 7·3 per cent of cases of DS were detected prenatally, and 15·4 per cent of all chromosome abnormalities. (A method for measuring the impact of PND is described.) Using this in conjunction with our demographic data, we estimate that with a 15 per cent utilization rate of PND by older mothers, 14 per cent of DS births can be prevented in this age group, or a 5 per cent overall reduction can be achieved if mothers of all ages are considered. One index–-the ratio of the percentage of DS births which are preventable compared with the population utilization rates of PND–-has potential for widespread use. Queensland data for this ratio is 0·34, a figure consistent with that from other studies. Thus a 3·5 per cent drop in the overall DS birth rate may be expected for each 10 per cent increase in the utilization rates of PND for mothers of 35 years and over. A diagram is presented which may serve as a model for improved data collection and better impact estimates in the future. 相似文献
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The objective was to derive predictive equations for acetic acid-extractable cobalt (A-ECo) in soils so that extensive national databases for total (T) Co in soils and stream sediments could be converted to plant available concentrations for the purpose of predicting risk of Co deficiency in grazing livestock. Data on the chemical and physical properties of 103 soils from 15 different parent materials and 54 soil series in England and Wales were used. Ranges for the mean values for parent materials were: TCo, 5.0–20.4 and A-ECo, 0.20–1.30 mg kg–1; percentage (P) A-ECo, 3.4–13.5; soil manganese (Mn) 268–1174 mg kgDM–1; pH, 3.7–8.0. There were significant effects of parent material on all parameters with Chalks, Old and New Red Sandstones particularly low in A-ECo. Multiple linear regression yielded the following equation for predicting A-ECo, which accounted for 56% of the variance with 12 outliers, including the lowest pH values, omitted:A-ECo(mg kg-1) = 1.4 - 0.0619TCo (mg kg-1) - 0.432TMn(g kg-1) - 0.171pHPrediction of PA-ECo was less precise:PA-ECo(%) = 21.1 - 4.5TMn(g kg-1) - 1.77pH(r
2 = 44.8%; 88 d.f.REML was used on the complete, unbalanced, log-transformed data set to fit a Generalised Mixed Model with parent material as random effect and soil Mn and pH as fixed effects; the effect of parent material was no longer significant. It was concluded that A-ECo can be satisfactorily predicted for most soils in England and Wales from TCo, TMn and soil pH. 相似文献
86.
Houlden G McNeil S Aminu-Kano M Bell JN 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》1990,67(4):305-314
A wide range of aphid/host-crop systems was surveyed by means of fumigation experiments in closed chambers for sensitivity to SO(2) and NO(2) at a concentration of 100 nl litre(-1). Aphid performance was measured by the mean relative growth rate (MRGR) of individual aphids. In all cases, except for Acrythosiphon pisum (Harris) on Vicia fabaL., there were increases in the MRGR of the aphids feeding on fumigated plants as compared to clean air controls, both during and post fumigation. The increases in MRGR ranged from 6 to 75%, with the majority falling between 25 and 40%. A. pisum on V. faba showed a consistent negative response, with decreases in MRGR between -9 and -12%. The changes in aohid MRGR were not due to direct effects, as no significant differences in MRGR were observed between fumigated and clean air chambers when aphids were fed on artificial diet sachets during fumigation. 相似文献
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In a Cd-contaminated environment, not only mature trees but also their seeds and young seedlings can be exposed to Cd. Cadmium taken up by young seedlings may influence mycorrhizal infection, which might in turn influence resistance to Cd toxicity. In order to eliminate soil-mediated responses of mycorrhizal infection to Cd, Pinus sylvestris seedlings were exposed to Cd prior to fungal inoculation and replanted to clean substrates with fungal inoculum. Cadmium pretreatment reduced the proportion of living mycorrhizal short roots of seedlings inoculated with Paxillus involutus. However, no such effect was observed for seedlings inoculated with Suillus bovinus and Rhizopogon subcaerulescens. Therefore, infection by P. involutus appeared to be affected by Cd taken up by seedlings. Overall stem length and biomass of the seedlings were reduced by Cd pretreatment. Infection by S. bovinus and R. subcaerulescens increased stem length and biomass of the seedlings. Root soluble carbohydrate concentrations were lower in mycorrhizal seedlings than non-mycorrhizal seedlings. 相似文献
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Inverse methods used in assessing landfill liner design have not yet taken advantage of current developments in inverse procedures. Here, a method for inverting contaminant transport models is presented including a general error model and procedures for differentially weighted multiple response regression. General error models are employed in cases where the residuals are heteroscedastic and correlated, and lead to valid inference on model parameter and predictive uncertainty. The Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm is used to optimise model parameters. Model parameter uncertainty is assessed by exploring the posterior probability distribution with the Metropolis algorithm, a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method. The inverse method is applied to simultaneously determine the sorption and diffusion parameters from laboratory diffusion cell experiments. In these experiments, fluoride migration through kaolin clays was measured by sampling the source and collector cells over time. To uniquely determine the transport model parameters, it was necessary to simultaneously fit the observed data from two independent diffusion cell experiments with different initial concentrations. The jointly fitted transport model parameters compared well with those fitted to independent batch experiments. 相似文献