Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality—of rising system-wide turbulence—calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.     

NABat: A top-down,bottom-up solution to collaborative continental-scale monitoring

Collaborative monitoring over broad scales and levels of ecological organization can inform conservation efforts necessary to address the contemporary biodiversity crisis. An important challenge to collaborative monitoring is motivating local engagement with enough buy-in from stakeholders while providing adequate top-down direction for scientific rigor, quality control, and coordination. Collaborative monitoring must reconcile this inherent tension between top-down control and bottom-up engagement. Highly mobile and cryptic taxa, such as bats, present a particularly acute challenge. Given their scale of movement, complex life histories, and rapidly expanding threats, understanding population trends of bats requires coordinated broad-scale collaborative monitoring. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) reconciles top-down, bottom-up tension with a hierarchical master sample survey design, integrated data analysis, dynamic data curation, regional monitoring hubs, and knowledge delivery through web-based infrastructure. NABat supports collaborative monitoring across spatial and organizational scales and the full annual lifecycle of bats.     

A new fossil thryonomyid from the Late Miocene of the United Arab Emirates and the origin of African cane rats

Cane rats (Thryonomyidae) are represented today by two species inhabiting sub-Saharan Africa. Their fossil record is predominately African, but includes several Miocene species from Arabia and continental Asia that represent dispersal events from Africa. For example, Paraulacodus indicus, known from the Miocene of Pakistan, is closely related to living Thryonomys. Here we describe a new thryonomyid, Protohummus dango, gen. et sp. nov., from the late Miocene Baynunah Formation of the United Arab Emirates. The new thryonomyid is less derived than “Thryonomys” asakomae from the latest Miocene of Ethiopia and clarifies the origin of crown Thryonomys and the evolutionary transition from Paraulacodus. A phylogenetic analysis shows Protohummus dango to be morphologically intermediate between Paraulacodus spp. and extinct and living Thryonomys spp. The morphological grade and phylogenetic position of Protohummus dango further supports previous biochronological estimates of the age of the Baynunah Formation (ca. 6–8 Ma).     

Fertilization trajectory of the root crop Raphanus sativus across atmospheric pCO2 estimates of the next 300 years

Plant biomass is known to increase in response to elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration (pCO₂); however, no experiments have quantified the trajectory of crop fertilization across the full range of pCO₂ levels estimated for the next 300 years. Here we quantify the above- and below-ground biomass response of Raphanus sativus (common radish) across eight pCO₂ levels ranging from 348 to 1791 ppmv. We observed a large net biomass increase of 58% above ground and 279% below ground. A large part of the net increase (38% of the above-ground and 53% of the below-ground) represented biomass fertilization at the high levels of pCO₂ (700–1791 ppmv) predicted if fossil fuel emissions continue unabated. The trajectory of below-ground fertilization in R. sativus greatly exceeded a trajectory based on extrapolation of previous experiments for plants grown at pCO₂ < 800 ppmv. Based on the experimental parameters used to grow these plants, we hypothesize that these experiments represent the maximum CO₂ fertilization that can be achieved for this plant growing under low light levels. If the below-ground biomass enhancement that we have quantified for R. sativus represents a generalized root-crop response that can be extrapolated to agricultural systems, below-ground fertilization under very high pCO₂ levels could dramatically augment crop production in some of the poorest nations of the world, provided that water resources are sufficient and sustainable.     

Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm Region

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.

     

Comparison of Nitrate Levels in Raw Water and Finished Water from Historical Monitoring Data on Iowa Municipal Drinking Water Supplies

Nitrate contamination of water sources is a concern where large amounts of nitrogen fertilizers are regularly applied to soils. Ingested nitrate from dietary sources and drinking water can be converted to nitrite and ultimately to N-nitroso compounds, many of which are known carcinogens. Epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate and cancer report mixed findings; a criticism is the use of nitrate concentrations from retrospective drinking water data to assign exposure levels. Residential point-of-use nitrate data are scarce; gaps in historical data for municipal supply finished water hamper exposure classification efforts. We used generalized linear regression models to estimate and compare historical raw water and finished water nitrate levels (1960s--1990s) in single source Iowa municipal supplies to determine whether raw water monitoring data could supplement finished water data to improve exposure assessment. Comparison of raw water and finished water samples (same sampling date) showed a significant difference in nitrate levels in municipalities using rivers; municipalities using other surface water or alluvial groundwater had no difference in nitrate levels. A regional aggregation of alluvial groundwater municipalities was constructed based on results from a previous study showing regional differences in nitrate contamination of private wells; results from this analysis were mixed, dependent upon region and decade. These analyses demonstrate using historical raw water nitrate monitoring data to supplement finished water data for exposure assessment is appropriate for individual Iowa municipal supplies using alluvial groundwater, lakes or reservoirs. Using alluvial raw water data on a regional basis is dependent on region and decade.     

Reducing the Effects of Dredged Material Levees on Coastal Marsh Function: Sediment Deposition and Nekton Utilization

Dredged material levees in coastal Louisiana are normally associated with pipeline canals or, more frequently, canals dredged through the wetlands to allow access to drilling locations for mineral extraction. The hydrologic impact on marshes behind the levee is of concern to coastal resource managers because of the potential impact on sediment transport and deposition, and the effect on estuarine organism access to valuable nursery habitat. This study examined the effects of gaps in dredged material levees, compared to continuous levees and natural channel banks, on these two aspects of marsh function. Field studies for sediment deposition were conducted biweekly for a year, and nekton samples were collected in spring and fall. Variation in nekton density among study arears and landscape types was great in part because of the inherent sampling gear issues and in part because of differences in characteristics among areas. Nekton densities were generally greater in natural compared to leveed and gapped landscapes. Differences in landscape type did not explain patterns in sediment deposition. The gaps examined appear to be too restrictive of marsh flooding to provide efficient movements of floodwaters onto the marsh during moderate flooding events. The “trapping” effect of the levees increases sediment deposition during extreme events. Gapping material levees may be an effective method of partially restoring upper marsh connection to nekton, but this method may work best in lower elevation marshes where nekton use is greater.     

Impacts of land cover on stream hydrology in the West Georgia Piedmont, USA

The southeastern United States is experiencing rapid urban development. Consequently, Georgia's streams are experiencing hydrologic alterations from extensive development and from other land use activities such as livestock grazing and silviculture. A study was performed to assess stream hydrology within 18 watersheds ranging from 500 to 2500 ha. Study streams were first, second, or third order and hydrology was continuously monitored from 29 July 2003 to 23 September 2004 using InSitu pressure transducers. Rating curves between stream stage (i.e., water depth) and discharge were developed for each stream by correlating biweekly discharge measurements and stage data. Dependent variables were calculated from discharge data and placed into 4 categories: flow frequency (i.e., the number of times a predetermined discharge threshold is exceeded), flow magnitude (i.e., maximum and minimum flows), flow duration (i.e., the amount of time discharge was above or below a predetermined threshold), and flow predictability and flashiness. Fine resolution data (i.e., 15-min interval) were also compared to daily discharge data to determine if resolution affected how streams were classified hydrologically. Urban watersheds experienced flashy discharges during storm events, whereas pastoral and forested watersheds showed less flashy hydrographs. Also, in comparison to all other flow variables, flow frequency measures were most strongly correlated to land cover. Furthermore, the stream hydrology was explained similarly with both the 15-min and daily data resolutions.