Harvesting creates ecological traps: consequences of invisible mortality risks in predator-prey metacommunities

Models of two-patch predator-prey metacommunities are used to explore how the global predator population changes in response to additional mortality in one of the patches. This could describe the dynamics of a predator in an environment that includes a refuge area where that predator is protected and a spatially distinct ("risky") area where it is harvested. The predator's movement is based on its perceived fitness in the two patches, but the risk from the additional mortality is potentially undetectable; this often occurs when the mortality is from human harvesting or from a novel type of top predator. Increases in undetected mortality in the risky area can produce an abrupt collapse of either the refuge population or of the entire predator population when the mortality rate exceeds a threshold level. This is due to the attraction of the risky patch, which has abundant prey due to its high predator mortality. Extinction of the refuge predator population does not occur when the refuge patch has a higher maximum per capita predator growth rate than the exploited patch because the refuge is then more attractive when the predator is rare. The possibility of abrupt extinction of one or both patches from high densities in response to a small increase in harvest is often associated with alternative states. In such cases, large reductions in mortality may be needed to avoid extinction in a collapsing predator population, or to reestablish an extinct population. Our analysis provides a potential explanation for sudden collapses of harvested populations, and it argues for more consideration of adaptive movement in designing protected areas.     

Juvenile dispersal affects straying behaviors of adults in a migratory population

The resilience of organisms to large-scale environmental and climatic change depends, in part, upon the ability to colonize and occupy new habitats. While previous efforts to describe homing, or natal site fidelity, of migratory organisms have been hindered by the confounding effects of fragmented landscapes and management practices, realistic conservation efforts must include considerations of the behavioral diversity represented by animal movements and dispersal. Herein, we quantify straying away from natal origins by adult chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in a wild population that inhabits a pristine wilderness basin. Using natural isotopic signatures (7Sr/86Sr) to reconstruct the migratory behaviors of unhandled individuals over their entire life cycle, we identified ecological and behavioral factors influencing the propensity to stray. Our results indicate that natal site fidelity is scale dependent, ranging from 55% at -1-km distances to 87% at longer (> 10-km scale) distances, and juvenile dispersal and sex highly influence straying occurrence. These findings lend support for the conservation of behavioral diversity for population persistence, and we propose straying as a mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity at low population densities.     

In situ rates of body growth and palp regeneration of a spionid polychaete following simulated sublethal predation

Sublethal predation can be a significant trophic pathway in sediment communities, and the regeneration of damaged tissue affects the activity, growth, and reproduction of prey. A field experiment was conducted 12–18 July 2010 in the Tijuana Estuary, California (+32.56617°, −117.13152°), to measure in situ rates of body growth and palp regeneration of the polychaete Polydora cornuta after simulating sublethal predation by removing 2, 1, or 0 palps from labeled individuals. After 3 days in the field, individuals that had 2 palps removed grew significantly slower than worms that had 0 palps removed; 1-palp worms had intermediate growth. After 6 days in the field, rates of body growth were faster than those of worms recovered after 3 days, with similar trends among the three palp treatments. During the 3-day transplantation, removed palps regenerated to half the initial length of unmanipulated palps. After 6 days, palp lengths did not differ significantly among treatment groups, indicating complete regeneration. The regeneration rate of removed palps was significantly faster than the growth rate of undamaged palps, and palp regeneration rate did not differ significantly between worms that had 1 or 2 palps removed.     

Bold minnows consistently approach danger in the field and lab in response to either chemical or visual indicators of predation risk

A behavioral syndrome is a suite of behaviors correlated across multiple social contexts. In this study, boldness in the face of predation risk was assessed twice in fish across two different sensory modalities in both the field and lab to ascertain the biological relevance and complexity of this attribute. Individual fathead minnows were captured from a natural field population using traps that either contained chemical alarm cues (conspecific skin extract) or control (well water) and their responses to the presence of predator behind a glass partition assessed in the laboratory. Although fewer fish were captured in alarm cue-labeled traps, these bold fish performed longer predator inspections than shy fish captured in control traps. Thus, a shy/bold behavioral syndrome was expressed consistently across field and lab settings in response to both chemical and visual indicators of danger. Shy and bold individuals did not differ in sex, body length, secondary sexual characteristics, or parasite load but were of more robust physical condition.     

Division of labor in honeybees: form, function, and proximate mechanisms

Honeybees exhibit two patterns of organization of work. In the spring and summer, division of labor is used to maximize growth rate and resource accumulation, while during the winter, worker survivorship through the poor season is paramount, and bees become generalists. This work proposes new organismal and proximate level conceptual models for these phenomena. The first half of the paper presents a push–pull model for temporal polyethism. Members of the nursing caste are proposed to be pushed from their caste by the development of workers behind them in the temporal caste sequence, while middle-aged bees are pulled from their caste via interactions with the caste ahead of them. The model is, hence, an amalgamation of previous models, in particular, the social inhibition and foraging for work models. The second half of the paper presents a model for the proximate basis of temporal polyethism. Temporal castes exhibit specialized physiology and switch caste when it is adaptive at the colony level. The model proposes that caste-specific physiology is dependent on mutually reinforcing positive feedback mechanisms that lock a bee into a particular behavioral phase. Releasing mechanisms that relate colony level information are then hypothesized to disrupt particular components of the priming mechanisms to trigger endocrinological cascades that lead to the next temporal caste. Priming and releasing mechanisms for the nursing caste are mapped out that are consistent with current experimental results. Less information-rich, but plausible, mechanisms for the middle-aged and foraging castes are also presented.     

Human Performance Cognitive-Behavioral Modeling: A Benefit for Occupational Safety

Human Performance Modeling (HPM) is a computer-aided job analysis software methodology used to generate predictions of complex humanautomation integration and system flow patterns with the goal of improving operator and system safety. The use of HPM tools has recently been increasing due to reductions in computational cost, augmentations in the tool’s fidelity, and usefulness in the generated output. An examination of an Air Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (Air MIDAS) model evaluating complex human-automation integration currently underway at NASA Ames Research Center will highlight the importance to occupational safety of considering both cognitive and physical aspects of performance when researching human error.     

Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram: An innovative approach

A bow-tie diagram combines a fault tree and an event tree to represent the risk control parameters on a common platform for mitigating an accident. Quantitative analysis of a bow-tie is still a major challenge since it follows the traditional assumptions of fault and event tree analyses. The assumptions consider the crisp probabilities and “independent” relationships for the input events. The crisp probabilities for the input events are often missing or hard to come by, which introduces data uncertainty. The assumption of “independence” introduces model uncertainty. Elicitation of expert's knowledge for the missing data may provide an alternative; however, such knowledge incorporates uncertainties and may undermine the credibility of risk analysis.This paper attempts to accommodate the expert's knowledge to overcome missing data and incorporate fuzzy set and evidence theory to assess the uncertainties. Further, dependency coefficient-based fuzzy and evidence theory approaches have been developed to address the model uncertainty for bow-tie analysis. In addition, a method of sensitivity analysis is proposed to predict the most contributing input events in the bow-tie analysis. To demonstrate the utility of the approaches in industrial application, a bow-tie diagram of the BP Texas City accident is developed and analyzed.     

Evaluating the effects of alternative forest management plans under various physiographic settings using historical records as a reference

Using historical General Land Office record as a reference, this study employed a landscape-scale disturbance and succession model to estimate the future cumulative effects of six alternative management plans on the tree species composition for various physiographic settings for the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri. The results indicate that over a 200-year horizon, the relative abundance of black oak and pine species groups will decrease and the relative abundance of the white oak species group will increase, regardless of management strategy. General Land Office witness tree records provide a measure of tree species composition in the period from 1800 to 1850, prior to the large-scale influx of European settlers. Compared to the tree species composition described in the General Land Office records, the six contemporary management alternatives considered all would lead to a lower abundance of pine species, a higher abundance of red/black oak species, and a slightly higher abundance of white oak species after 200 years. Impacts of management on tree species composition varied with physiographic settings. The projected relative abundance of pine differed significantly across the five physiographic classes over the first 40 years of the simulation. In the medium term (simulation years 41-100) the projected relative pine abundance differed significantly among only four physiographic classes. In the long term (simulation years 100-200) the projected relative pine abundance differed for only one physiographic class. In contrast, differences among physiographic classes in the relative abundance of black oaks and white oaks increased over time. In general, the expected long-term differences in relative tree species abundance among six proposed alternative management plans are small compared to shifts in tree species composition that have occurred from 1850 to the present.     

Dispersal Constraints for Stream Invertebrates: Setting Realistic Timescales for Biodiversity Restoration

Biodiversity goals are becoming increasingly important in stream restoration. Typical models of stream restoration are based on the assumption that if habitat is restored then species will return and ecological processes will re-establish. However, a range of constraints at different scales can affect restoration success. Much of the research in stream restoration ecology has focused on habitat constraints, namely the in-stream and riparian conditions required to restore biota. Dispersal constraints are also integral to determining the timescales, trajectory and potential endpoints of a restored ecosystem. Dispersal is both a means of organism recolonization of restored sites and a vital ecological process that maintains viable populations. We review knowledge of dispersal pathways and explore the factors influencing stream invertebrate dispersal. From empirical and modeling studies of restoration in warm-temperate zones of New Zealand, we make predictions about the timescales of stream ecological restoration under differing levels of dispersal constraints. This process of constraints identification and timescale prediction is proposed as a practical step for resource managers to prioritize and appropriately monitor restoration sites and highlights that in some instances, natural recolonization and achievement of biodiversity goals may not occur.     

Evaluating China's Slope Land Conversion Program as sustainable management in Tianquan and Wuqi Counties

Increased soil erosion on sloped land has become a significant environmental concern in China that has been attributed to human activities such as deforestation, over-cultivation, and over-grazing of livestock. In order to reduce soil erosion on sloped lands, the Chinese government has responded by implementing large-scale, ecological rehabilitation programs, including the "Grain for Green" reforestation project. This program involves financial incentives to transition farmers into other economic activities with the goal of reducing ecological pressures and degradation. Because of the scope and potential impacts from these programs, detailed research is needed to understand their social and ecological effects. This paper reports on research conducted in Tianquan County, Sichuan Province, and Wuqi County, Shaanxi Province, that evaluates the effects of the program upon local economies and household livelihood systems. The paper argues that the successful conversion of farmland under "Grain for Green" depends upon local government involvement, local economic development, and funding for local projects. Without economic development within rural economies, we conclude that farmers will remain dependent upon continued subsidy assistance to meet the policy's ambitious environmental restrictions, thereby undermining the program's long-term sustainability.