Human Performance Cognitive-Behavioral Modeling: A Benefit for Occupational Safety

Human Performance Modeling (HPM) is a computer-aided job analysis software methodology used to generate predictions of complex humanautomation integration and system flow patterns with the goal of improving operator and system safety. The use of HPM tools has recently been increasing due to reductions in computational cost, augmentations in the tool’s fidelity, and usefulness in the generated output. An examination of an Air Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (Air MIDAS) model evaluating complex human-automation integration currently underway at NASA Ames Research Center will highlight the importance to occupational safety of considering both cognitive and physical aspects of performance when researching human error.     

Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram: An innovative approach

A bow-tie diagram combines a fault tree and an event tree to represent the risk control parameters on a common platform for mitigating an accident. Quantitative analysis of a bow-tie is still a major challenge since it follows the traditional assumptions of fault and event tree analyses. The assumptions consider the crisp probabilities and “independent” relationships for the input events. The crisp probabilities for the input events are often missing or hard to come by, which introduces data uncertainty. The assumption of “independence” introduces model uncertainty. Elicitation of expert's knowledge for the missing data may provide an alternative; however, such knowledge incorporates uncertainties and may undermine the credibility of risk analysis.This paper attempts to accommodate the expert's knowledge to overcome missing data and incorporate fuzzy set and evidence theory to assess the uncertainties. Further, dependency coefficient-based fuzzy and evidence theory approaches have been developed to address the model uncertainty for bow-tie analysis. In addition, a method of sensitivity analysis is proposed to predict the most contributing input events in the bow-tie analysis. To demonstrate the utility of the approaches in industrial application, a bow-tie diagram of the BP Texas City accident is developed and analyzed.     

Evaluating the effects of alternative forest management plans under various physiographic settings using historical records as a reference

Using historical General Land Office record as a reference, this study employed a landscape-scale disturbance and succession model to estimate the future cumulative effects of six alternative management plans on the tree species composition for various physiographic settings for the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri. The results indicate that over a 200-year horizon, the relative abundance of black oak and pine species groups will decrease and the relative abundance of the white oak species group will increase, regardless of management strategy. General Land Office witness tree records provide a measure of tree species composition in the period from 1800 to 1850, prior to the large-scale influx of European settlers. Compared to the tree species composition described in the General Land Office records, the six contemporary management alternatives considered all would lead to a lower abundance of pine species, a higher abundance of red/black oak species, and a slightly higher abundance of white oak species after 200 years. Impacts of management on tree species composition varied with physiographic settings. The projected relative abundance of pine differed significantly across the five physiographic classes over the first 40 years of the simulation. In the medium term (simulation years 41-100) the projected relative pine abundance differed significantly among only four physiographic classes. In the long term (simulation years 100-200) the projected relative pine abundance differed for only one physiographic class. In contrast, differences among physiographic classes in the relative abundance of black oaks and white oaks increased over time. In general, the expected long-term differences in relative tree species abundance among six proposed alternative management plans are small compared to shifts in tree species composition that have occurred from 1850 to the present.     

Dispersal Constraints for Stream Invertebrates: Setting Realistic Timescales for Biodiversity Restoration

Biodiversity goals are becoming increasingly important in stream restoration. Typical models of stream restoration are based on the assumption that if habitat is restored then species will return and ecological processes will re-establish. However, a range of constraints at different scales can affect restoration success. Much of the research in stream restoration ecology has focused on habitat constraints, namely the in-stream and riparian conditions required to restore biota. Dispersal constraints are also integral to determining the timescales, trajectory and potential endpoints of a restored ecosystem. Dispersal is both a means of organism recolonization of restored sites and a vital ecological process that maintains viable populations. We review knowledge of dispersal pathways and explore the factors influencing stream invertebrate dispersal. From empirical and modeling studies of restoration in warm-temperate zones of New Zealand, we make predictions about the timescales of stream ecological restoration under differing levels of dispersal constraints. This process of constraints identification and timescale prediction is proposed as a practical step for resource managers to prioritize and appropriately monitor restoration sites and highlights that in some instances, natural recolonization and achievement of biodiversity goals may not occur.     

Evaluating China's Slope Land Conversion Program as sustainable management in Tianquan and Wuqi Counties

Increased soil erosion on sloped land has become a significant environmental concern in China that has been attributed to human activities such as deforestation, over-cultivation, and over-grazing of livestock. In order to reduce soil erosion on sloped lands, the Chinese government has responded by implementing large-scale, ecological rehabilitation programs, including the "Grain for Green" reforestation project. This program involves financial incentives to transition farmers into other economic activities with the goal of reducing ecological pressures and degradation. Because of the scope and potential impacts from these programs, detailed research is needed to understand their social and ecological effects. This paper reports on research conducted in Tianquan County, Sichuan Province, and Wuqi County, Shaanxi Province, that evaluates the effects of the program upon local economies and household livelihood systems. The paper argues that the successful conversion of farmland under "Grain for Green" depends upon local government involvement, local economic development, and funding for local projects. Without economic development within rural economies, we conclude that farmers will remain dependent upon continued subsidy assistance to meet the policy's ambitious environmental restrictions, thereby undermining the program's long-term sustainability.     

Congruence Among Encounters,Norms, Crowding,and Management in a Marine Protected Area

Over the past few decades, recreation and tourism use has increased at many marine protected areas, generating concerns about impacts of this increasing use on experiences and conditions at these areas (e.g., crowding, conflict). This article uses data from Molokini Shoal Marine Life Conservation District in Hawai’i to examine: (a) reported encounters, crowding, normative tolerances for various use levels, and support of use related management strategies at this site; and (b) whether users who encounter higher use levels than their norms feel more crowded and are more supportive of restrictive management strategies. Data were obtained from onsite pre-trip and post-trip questionnaires of 712 passengers on commercial snorkel and dive tours visiting this site. Norms were measured with acceptance of 12 photographs depicting levels of boat use. On average, users would accept seeing no more than approximately 16 boats at one time at Molokini and this number was observed on over 20% of trips to the site. Although the majority of users expected to escape crowds at Molokini, 67% felt crowded and up to 79% supported actions that would directly restrict use at this site (e.g., limit number of boats). Users who encountered more boats than their normative tolerance felt more crowded and were more supportive of these management strategies. Findings suggest that this marine protected area is operating over its capacity and management is needed to improve experiences and conditions.     

Experience with chemotactile cues indicating female feeding history impacts male courtship investment in the wolf spider <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Schizocosa ocreata</Emphasis>

Male fitness is often determined by the ability of the male to gain access to multiple mates, although in species that exhibit sexual cannibalism, males might increase their likelihood of being cannibalized with each encounter. This risk should create selection for males who are able to perceive potential risks associated with mating encounters. We studied male Schizocosa ocreata wolf spiders to determine whether they use female chemotactile cues (silk, excreta) as indicators of potential risks and how these cues affected subsequent male courtship behaviors. Female treatments included satiated females vs. starved females, as well as a treatment where females had recently cannibalized a male S. ocreata. We performed experiments to assess (1) if males use female chemotactile cues to determine potential risks associated with differing female feeding treatments and alter courtship investment, and 2) how male experience with female chemotactile cues affected courtship investment in subsequent female encounters. At first encounter, males do not vary courtship investment (number of bouts, duration, and vigor) with different female feeding treatments. However, male behaviors during subsequent encounters with female chemotactile cues varied in complex ways, depending on female feeding treatment and male first encounter experience. These data suggest that male experience impacts perception of female chemical cues and offers the male opportunity to avoid sexual cannibalism in high-risk situations.     

Chemical defense in pelagic octopus paralarvae: Tetrodotoxin alone does not protect individual paralarvae of the greater blue-ringed octopus (Hapalochlaena lunulata) from common reef predators

Some pelagic marine larvae possess anti-predator chemical defenses. Occasionally, toxic adults imbue their young with their own defensive cocktails. We examined paralarvae of the greater blue-ringed octopus (Hapalochlaena lunulata) for the deadly neurotoxin tetrodotoxin (TTX), and if present, whether TTX conferred protection to individual paralarvae. Paralarvae of H. lunulata possessed 150 ± 17 ng TTX each. These paralarvae appeared distasteful to a variety of fish and stomatopod predators, yet food items spiked with 200 ng TTX were readily consumed by predators. We conclude that TTX alone does not confer individual protection to paralarvae of H. lunulata, and that they possess an alternative defense. In larger doses, tetrodotoxin is a deterrent to the predatory stomatopod Haptosquilla trispinosa (mean dose = 3.97 μg/g). This corresponds to 12–13 paralarvae per predator based on the TTX levels of the clutch we examined. Thus, the basic assumption that individual paralarvae of H. lunulata are defended by TTX alone was disproved. Instead, functionality of TTX levels in paralarvae may arise through alternative selective pathways, such as deterrence to parasites, through kin selection, or against predator species not tested here.     

Two-dimensional wavelet analysis of spruce budworm host basal area in the Border Lakes landscape

Increases in the extent and severity of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks over the last century are thought to be the result of changes in forest structure due to forest management. A corollary of this hypothesis is that manipulations of forest structure and composition can be used to reduce future forest vulnerability. However, to what extent historical forest management has influenced current spatial patterns of spruce budworm host species is unknown. To identify landscape-scale spatial legacies of forest management in patterns of spruce budworm host species (i.e., Abies balsamea and Picea spp.), we analyzed remotely sensed forest data from the Border Lakes landscape of northern Minnesota and northwestern Ontario. Our study area contains three regions with different management histories: (1) fine-scale logging patterns in Minnesota, (2) coarse-scale logging patterns in Ontario, and (3) very limited logging history in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and adjacent Quetico Provincial Park. We analyzed forest basal-area data using wavelets and null models to identify: (1) at which scales forest basal area is structured, (2) where those scales of pattern are significantly present, and (3) whether regions of local significance correspond to regional boundaries that separate the study area. Results indicate that spatial patterns in host basal area are created by nonstationary processes and that these processes are further constrained by lakes and wetlands. Wavelet analysis combined with significance testing revealed a bimodal distribution of scale-specific wavelet variance and separate zones of host species basal area that partially correspond with regional boundaries, particularly between Minnesota and the Wilderness region. This research represents one of the first comparisons of forest spatial structure in this region across an international border and presents a novel method of two-dimensional wavelet analysis that can be used to identify significant scale-specific structure in spatial data.     

Solid-phase extraction using hierarchical organosilicates for enhanced detection of nitroenergetic targets

A novel porous organosilicate material was evaluated for application as a solid phase extraction sorbent for preconcentration of nitroenergetic targets from aqueous solution prior to HPLC analysis. The performance of the sorbent in spiked deionized water, groundwater, and surface water was evaluated. Targets considered included 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene, 2,4-dinitrotoluene, RDX, HMX, and nitroglycerin. The sorbent was shown to provide improved performance over Sep-Pak RDX. The impact of complex matrices on target preconcentration by the sorbent was also found to be less dramatic than that observed for LiChrolut EN. The impact of changes in pH on target preconcentration was considered. Aqueous soil extracts generated from samples collected at sites of ordnance testing were also used to evaluate the materials. The results presented here demonstrate the potential of this novel sorbent for application as a solid phase extraction material for the preconcentration of nitroenergetic targets from aqueous solutions.