Methodology for computer aided fuzzy fault tree analysis

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks of complex process systems. PRA uses fault tree analysis (FTA) as a tool to identify basic causes leading to an undesired event, to represent logical dependency of these basic causes in leading to the event, and finally to calculate the probability of occurrence of this event.To conduct a quantitative fault tree analysis, one needs a fault tree along with failure data of the basic events (components). Sometimes it is difficult to have an exact estimation of the failure rate of individual components or the probability of occurrence of undesired events due to a lack of sufficient data. Further, due to imprecision in basic failure data, the overall result may be questionable. To avoid such conditions, a fuzzy approach may be used with the FTA technique. This reduces the ambiguity and imprecision arising out of subjectivity of the data.This paper presents a methodology for a fuzzy based computer-aided fault tree analysis tool. The methodology is developed using a systematic approach of fault tree development, minimal cut sets determination and probability analysis. Further, it uses static and dynamic structuring and modeling, fuzzy based probability analysis and sensitivity analysis.This paper also illustrates with a case study the use of a fuzzy weighted index and cutsets importance measure in sensitivity analysis (for system probabilistic risk analysis) and design modification.     

Antecedents of intention to help mitigate wildfire: Implications for campaigns promoting wildfire mitigation to the general public in the wildland–urban interface

The current investigation sought to examine the association between knowledge of the causes of wildfire in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) and intentions on the part of members of the public to help mitigate wildfire. In doing so, antecedents from the theory of planned behavior were employed to enhance our understanding of the relationships among wildfire knowledge, attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention to help mitigate wildfire in the WUI. Participants (N = 408) living in the WUI in Appalachian Ohio were sampled as a means of conducting formative research prior to developing messages promoting wildfire mitigation. Our results reveal that, among the variables in the theory of planned behavior, the only paths that consistently explain individual’s intention to help mitigate wildland fire in the WUI in protecting both homes and the environment are associations between knowledge about wildfire and perceived behavioral control and between perceived behavioral control and intention. Our findings are discussed with a focus on message design for wildland fire mitigation professionals and a focus on implications for the theory of planned behaviors for academics with interests in wildland fire and other environmental issues.     

Preliminary investigation of the effects of dispersed Prudhoe Bay Crude Oil on developing topsmelt embryos, Atherinops affinis

Static exposure experiments were conducted to assess the toxicity of dispersed Prudhoe Bay Crude Oil (PBCO) to embryos of the topsmelt (Atherinops affinis). Treatment with the dispersant COREXIT 9500 resulted in greater hydrocarbon concentrations in chemically enhanced water-accommodated fractions (CEWAFs) of oil, relative to the untreated water-accommodated fractions (WAFs). Topsmelt embryo development and survival to hatching was significantly inhibited in CEWAF tests while minimal effects on embryo-larval survival were observed in WAF tests. Increased hydrocarbon concentrations in the CEWAF tests caused cardiovascular and other abnormalities in developing topsmelt embryos.     

The gas/particle partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons collected at a sub-Arctic site in Canada

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were measured in air samples at a remote air monitoring site established in the Yukon Territory, Canada as part of a global project (International Polar Year; IPY) to study the potential for atmospheric long-range transport of anthropogenic pollutants to the Arctic. Gas- and particle-phase PAH were collected in polyurethane foam plugs and on glass fibre filters respectively from August 2007 to October 2009. PAH concentrations were found to be highest in the winter months and lowest in summer. The gas/particle partitioning coefficients of 3–5 ringed PAH were computed and seasonal averages were compared. In the summer time, lower molecular mass PAH exhibited relatively higher partitioning into the particle-phase. This particle-phase partitioning led to the shallowest slopes being recorded during summer for the log–log correlation plots between the PAH partition coefficients and their sub-cooled vapour pressures. Air mass back trajectories suggest that local impacts may be more important during the summer time which is marked by increased camping activities at camping sites in the proximity of the sampling station. In conclusion, both summer and wintertime variations in PAH concentrations and gas/particle partitioning are considered to be source- and phototransformation-dependent rather than dependent on temperature-driven shifts in equilibrium partitioning.     

Can Science Writing Collectives Overcome Barriers to More Democratic Communication and Collaboration? Lessons from Environmental Communication Praxis in Southern Appalachia

Despite compelling reasons to involve nonscientists in the production of ecological knowledge, cultural and institutional factors often dis-incentivize engagement between scientists and nonscientists. This paper details our efforts to develop a biweekly newspaper column to increase communication between ecological scientists, social scientists, and the communities within which they work. Addressing community-generated topics and written by a collective of social and natural scientists, the column is meant to foster public dialog about socio-environmental issues and to lay the groundwork for the coproduction of environmental knowledge. Our collective approach to writing addresses some major barriers to public engagement by scientists, but the need to insert ourselves as intermediaries limits these gains. Overall, our efforts at environmental communication praxis have not generated significant public debate, but they have supported future coproduction by making scientists a more visible presence in the community and providing easy pathways for them to begin engaging the public. Finally, this research highlights an underappreciated barrier to public engagement: scientists are not merely disconnected from the public, but also connected in ways that may be functional for their research. Many field scientists, for example, seek out neutral and narrowly defined connections that permit research access but are largely incompatible with efforts to address controversial issues of environmental governance.     

Nitrate Dynamics in Two Streams Impacted by Wastewater Treatment Plant Discharge: Point Sources or Sinks?

We examined nitrate processing in headwater stream reaches downstream of two wastewater treatment plant outfalls during low streamflow. Our objectives were to quantify nitrate mass flux before and after effluent discharge and to use field and laboratory techniques to assess the mechanism of nitrate uptake. Microcosm experiments were utilized to determine the location of nitrate processing, and molecular biomarkers were used to detect and quantify microbial denitrification. At one site, downstream nitrate mass flux was significantly (p = 0.01) lower than sum of upstream and wastewater effluent fluxes, indicating rapid stream assimilation of incoming nitrate in the vicinity of the point source. Microcosm experiments supported the theory that nitrate processing occurs in sediments. Molecular assays for denitrifcation‐associated functional genes nosZ, nirS, and nirK, provided evidence that effluent contained enriched denitrifying communities relative to ambient stream water. Nitrate loss at the site with greater uptake was correlated with sulfate loss (p < 0.01; r² = 0.86), suggesting a possible link between sulfate reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacterial communities. Results suggest there is an opportunity to better understand nitrate dynamics in cases where point sources may act as point sinks under specific sets of conditions.     

Transport of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in soil

The effect of soil properties on the transport of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) was studied in a set of laboratory column experiments, using different combinations of size fractions of a Mediterranean sandy clay soil. The AgNPs with average size of ∼30 nm yielded a stable suspension in water with zeta potential of −39 mV. Early breakthrough of AgNPs in soil was observed in column transport experiments. AgNPs were found to have high mobility in soil with outlet relative concentrations ranging from 30% to 70%, depending on experimental conditions. AgNP mobility through the column decreased when the fraction of smaller soil aggregates was larger. The early breakthrough pattern was not observed for AgNPs in pure quartz columns nor for bromide tracer in soil columns, suggesting that early breakthrough is related to the nature of AgNP transport in natural soils. Micro-CT and image analysis used to investigate structural features of the soil, suggest that soil aggregate size strongly affects AgNP transport in natural soil. The retention of AgNPs in the soil column was reduced when humic acid was added to the leaching solution, while a lower flow rate (Darcy velocity of 0.17 cm/min versus 0.66 cm/min) resulted in higher retention of AgNPs in the soil. When soil residual chloride was exchanged by nitrate prior to column experiments, significantly improved mobility of AgNPs was observed in the soil column. These findings point to the importance of AgNP-soil chemical interactions as a retention mechanism, and demonstrate the need to employ natural soils rather than glass beads or quartz in representative experimental investigations.     

Diversity and distribution of riparian plant communities in relation to stream size and eutrophication

The present study was conducted in 47 different riparian areas distributed throughout Denmark to investigate diversity and distributional patterns of plant communities along a lowland stream size gradient (first to fifth order). The investigated areas were representative for Danish riparian areas not in use for agricultural production. We investigated plant community richness along a stream size gradient and the influence of eutrophication on the abundance of different plant communities. Vegetation analyses were performed in transects placed perpendicular to the stream channel, with a total of 1798 plots analyzed. Overall, we found a positive relationship between stream mean depth as a measure of stream size and the number of plant community types identified in the riparian areas. We also found that the abundance of the identified communities was positively correlated with their nutrient preference and negatively correlated with their moisture preference. The abundance of alkaline fens and Molinia meadows (protected community types) in riparian areas decreased with increasing size of the stream, whereas the abundance of humid meadows and wet herb fringes increased with increasing size of the stream. Based on our findings, we recommend that wide buffer zones be established along streams with protected habitat types in the associated riparian areas to reduce the direct impact from agriculture. Furthermore, we recommend that wide buffer zones be established along middle-sized and large streams because several community types may develop.     

Quality control for sampling of PCDD/PCDF emissions from open combustion sources

Both long duration (>6 h) and high temperature (up to 139 °C) sampling efforts were conducted using ambient air sampling methods to determine if either high volume throughput or higher than ambient air sampling temperatures resulted in loss of target polychlorinated dibenzodioxins/dibenzofurans (PCDDs/PCDFs) from a polyurethane foam (PUF) sorbent. Emissions from open burning of simulated military forward operating base waste were sampled using EPA Method TO-9A for 185 min duration using a filter/PUF/PUF in series combination. After a 54 m³ sample was collected, the sampler was removed from the combustion source and the second PUF was replaced with a fresh, clean PUF. An additional 6 h of ambient air sampling (171 m³) was conducted and the second PUF was analyzed to determine if the PCDD/PCDF transferred from the filter and the first PUF. Less than 4.4% of the initial PCDD/PCDF was lost to the second PUF. To assess the potential for blow off of PCDD/PCDF analytes during open air sampling, the mobility of spiked mono- to hepta-PCDD/PCDF standards across a PUF sorbent was evaluated from ambient air temperatures to 145 °C with total volumes between 600 L and 2400 L. Lower molecular weight compounds and higher flow amounts increased release of the spiked standards consistent with vapor pressure values. At 600 L total sampled volume, the release temperature for 1% of the tetra-CDD (the lowest chlorinated homologue with a toxic compound) was 87 °C; increasing the volume fourfold reduced this temperature to 73 °C.