Sensitivity analysis of the asymptotic behavior of a model for the environmental movement of radionuclides

The asymptotic behavior of a linear compartment model for the environmental movement of radionuclides is investigated. Here, the expression asymptotic behavior is used to designate the behavior of q(t) as t → ∞, where q is the solution of a vector differential equation of the form dq/dt = h + Kq. The asymptotic behavior of such equations is described. For the model and conditions under consideration, each element of q converges monotonically to a steady-state value. A hydrologic system is defined and used to illustrate this behavior. An approach to sensitivity analysis employing Latin hypercube sampling, rank transformations and stepwise regression is presented and then applied to this system. A total of 20 independent variables is introduced and the following dependent variables are investigated for the various components of the system: amount of radionuclide present at steady state. concentration of radionuclide at steady state, and time required to reach 90% of steady state. Finally, an application of asymptotic behavior in the analysis of a hypothetical site for the geologic isolation of high-level radioactive waste is described and a brief discussion of differential sensitivity analysis is given.     

Metal bioavailability and speciation in a wetland tailings repository amended with biosolids compost,wood ash,and sulfate

Lead poisoning of waterfowl from direct ingestion of wetland mine tailings has been reported at the Coeur d'Alene River basin in Idaho. A greenhouse study was conducted to evaluate the effects of surface applications of amendments on lead bioavailability in the tailings. Treatments included sediment only, and sediment with three different surface amendments: (i) biosolids compost plus wood ash, (ii) compost + wood ash + a low SO4(2-) addition as K2SO4, and (iii) compost + wood ash + a high SO4(2-) addition. Measured variables included growth and tissue Pb, Zn, and Cd concentration of arrowhead (Sagittaria latifolia Willd.) and cattail (Typha latifolia L.) and soil pH, redox potential (Eh), pore water Pb, Pb speciation by X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and in vitro Pb bioavailability. The compost + ash amendment alleviated phytotoxicity for both plant species. Bioavailability of Pb as measured by a rapid in vitro extract decreased by 24 to 34% (over control) in the tailings directly below the amendment layer in the compost + SO4 treatments. The ratio of acid volatile sulfide (AVS) to simultaneously extracted metals (SEM) also indicated a reduction in Pb bioavailability (1:40 control, 1:20 compost, 1:8 compost + low SO4, and 1:3 compost + high SO4). Extended X-ray adsorption fine structure (EXAFS) and X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy data indicated that lead sulfide was greater after 99 d in the treatments that included additions of sulfate. These results indicated that, under reducing conditions, surface amendments of compost + wood ash (with or without sulfate) decreased the bioavailability of Pb in metal-contaminated mine tailings.     

Optimal design for sustainable development of a material recovery facility in a fast-growing urban setting

Installing material recovery facilities (MRFs) in a solid waste management system could be a feasible alternative to achieve sustainable development goals in urban areas if current household and curbside recycling cannot prove successful in the long run. This paper addresses the optimal site selection and capacity planning for a MRF in conjunction with an optimal shipping strategy of solid waste streams in a multi-district urban region. Screening of material recovery and disposal capacity alternatives can be achieved in terms of economic feasibility, technology limitation, recycling potential, and site availability. The optimization objectives include economic impacts characterized by recycling income and cost components for waste management, while the constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening constraints. A case study for the City of San Antonio, Texas (USA) presents a vivid example where scenario planning demonstrates the robustness and flexibility of this modeling analysis. It proves especially useful when determining MRF ownership structure. Each scenario experiences two case settings: (1) two MRF sites are proposed for selection and (2) a single MRF site is sought. Cost analysis confirms processing fees are not the driving force in the City's operation, but rather shipping cost. Sensitivity analysis solidifies the notion that significant public participation plays the most important role in minimizing solid waste management expenses.     

ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS AND POLLUTION EFFECTS IN AN OZARK CAVE STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Subterranean ecosystems harbor globally rare fauna and important water resources, but ecological processes are poorly understood and are threatened by anthropogenic stresses. Ecosystem analyses were conducted from 1997 to 2000 in Cave Springs Cave, Arkansas, situated in a region of intensive land use, to determine the degree of habitat degradation and viability of endangered fauna. Organic matter budgeting quantified energy flux and documented the dominant input as dissolved organic matter and not gray bat guano (Myotis grisescens). Carbon/nitrogen stable isotope analyses described a trophic web of Ozark cavefish (Amblyopsis rosae) that primarily consumed cave isopods (Caecidotea stiladactyla), which in turn appeared to consume benthic matter originating from a complex mixture of soil, leaf litter, and anthropogenic wastes. Septic leachate, sewage sludge, and cow manure were suspected to augment the food web and were implicated in environmental degradation. Water, sediment, and animal tissue analyses detected excess nutrients, fecal bacteria, and toxic concentrations of metals. Community assemblage may have been altered: sensitive species‐grotto salamanders (Typhlotriton spelaeus) and stygobro‐mid amphipods—were not detected, while more resilient isopods flourished. Reduction of septic and agricultural waste inputs may be necessary to restore ecosystem dynamics in this cave ecosystem to its former undisturbed condition.     

EFFECTS OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON FOREST STREAMWATER QUALITY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY1

ABSTRACT: Forest land managers are concerned about the effects of logging on soil erosion, streamflow, and water quality and are promoting the use of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to control impacts. To compare the effects of BMP implementation on streamwater quality, two of three small watersheds in Kentucky were harvested in 1983 and 1984, one with BMPs, the other without BMPs. There was no effect of clearcutting on stream temperatures. Streamflow increased by 17.8 cm (123 percent) on the BMP watershed during the first 17 months after cutting and by 20.6 cm (138 percent) on the Non-BMP watershed. Water yields remained significantly elevated compared to the uncut watershed 8 years after harvesting. Suspended sediment flux was 14 and 30 times higher on the BMP and Non-BMP Watersheds, respectively, than on the uncut watershed during treatment, and 4 and 6.5 times higher in the 17 months after treatment was complete. Clearcutting resulted in increased concentrations of nitrate, and other nutrients compared to the uncut watershed, and concentrations were highest on the non-BMP watershed. Recovery of biotic control over nutrient losses occurred within three years of clearcutting. The streamside buffer strip was effective in reducing the impact of clearcutting on water yield and sediment flux.     

Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.     

STREAM RESTORATION IN THE VICINITY OF BRIDGES1

ABSTRACT: The number of stream restoration and enhancement projects being implemented is rapidly increasing. At road crossings, a transition must be created from the restored channel through the bridge or culvert opening. Given conflicting design objectives for a naturalized channel and a bridge opening, guidance is needed in the design of the transition. In this paper we describe the use of vanes, cross vanes, and w‐weirs, commonly used in stream restoration and enhancement projects, that may provide an adequate transition at bridges. Laboratory experiments were conducted on vanes and cross vanes to provide a transition for single span bridge abutments and on w‐weirs to provide a transition for double span bridges which have a pier in mid‐channel. The results of the experiments provided design criteria for transitions using each of the three structures. Prior field experience provided guidance on appropriate applications in terms of the stream and bridge characteristics.     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Is motion more important than it sounds?: The medium of presentation in environment perception research

This study assessed the incremental validity of different media for representing landscapes with significant dynamic elements. The experimental design independently varied the presence of motion and sound in different representations of a wild and scenic river in order to evaluate the adequacy or sufficiency of the surrogate to reflect physical changes in the landscape. Three representational conditions were identified: (1) video/sound, (2) video/no sound, and (3) static/no sound. A pilot study assessed the ability of the static images to represent river flow levels per se, and confirmed comparability with prior results (Brown & Daniel, 1989, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 7, 233–250). Scenic beauty judgments were then collected within each representational condition. Multiple regression analyses were used to determine the relationship of flow level to perceived scenic beauty for each representation condition. The results demonstrated that motion and sound, individually and conjointly, influenced judgements of scenic beauty for a landscape with a significant dynamic element.