Positive Feedbacks among Forest Fragmentation, Drought, and Climate Change in the Amazon

Abstract: The Amazon basin is experiencing rapid forest loss and fragmentation. Fragmented forests are more prone than intact forests to periodic damage from El Niño–Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) droughts, which cause elevated tree mortality, increased litterfall, shifts in plant phenology, and other ecological changes, especially near forest edges. Moreover, positive feedbacks among forest loss, fragmentation, fire, and regional climate change appear increasingly likely. Deforestation reduces plant evapotranspiration, which in turn constrains regional rainfall, increasing the vulnerability of forests to fire. Forest fragments are especially vulnerable because they have dry, fire-prone edges, are logged frequently, and often are adjoined by cattle pastures, which are burned regularly. The net result is that there may be a critical "deforestation threshold" above which Amazonian rainforests can no longer be sustained, particularly in relatively seasonal areas of the basin. Global warming could exacerbate this problem if it promotes drier climates or stronger ENSO droughts. Synergisms among many simultaneous environmental changes are posing unprecedented threats to Amazonian forests.     

Numerical Investigation of Boundary-Layer Evolution and Nocturnal Low-Level Jets: Local versus Non-Local PBL Schemes

Numerical simulations of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and nocturnal low-level jets (LLJ) have been carried out using MM5 (version 3.3) with four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) for a high pollution episode in the northeastern United States during July 15–20, 1999. In this paper, we assess the impact of different parameterizations on the PBL evolution with two schemes: the Blackadar PBL, a hybrid local (stable regime) and non-local (convective regime) mixing scheme; and the Gayno–Seaman PBL, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusion scheme. No FDDA was applied within the PBL to evaluate the ability of the two schemes to reproduce the PBL structure and its temporal variation. The restriction of the application of FDDA to the atmosphere above the PBL or the lowest 8 model levels, whichever is higher, has significantly improved the predicted strength and timing of the LLJ during the night. A systematic analysis of the PBL evolution has been performed for the primary meteorological fields (temperature, specific humidity, horizontal winds) and for the derived parameters such as the PBL height, virtual potential temperature, relative humidity, and cloud cover fraction. There are substantial differences between the PBL structures and evolutions simulated by these two different schemes. The model results were compared with independent observations (that were not used in FDDA) measured by aircraft, RASS and wind profiler, lidar, and tethered balloon platforms during the summer of 1999 as part of the NorthEast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS). The observations tend to support the non-local mixing mechanism better than the layer-to-layer eddy diffusion in the convective PBL.     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.     

Fuel consumption, emissions estimation, and emissions cost estimates using global positioning data

The methodology laid out in this paper shows that typical operational data from vehicle fleets monitored by a global positioning system (GPS) can be used to estimate heavy-duty diesel vehicle (HDDV) emissions, thereby enabling waste managers and governing bodies to internalize the responsibility for socioenvironmental costs traditionally absorbed by external parties. Although municipal solid waste (MSW) collection vehicles are the subjects of this particular study, the methodology presented here can be applied to any fleet of vehicles monitored by GPS. This study indicates that MSW collection trucks may be considerably less fuel efficient in the field than published values for HDDV fuel efficiency suggest. The average fuel efficiency of one MSW collection truck was estimated as 0.90 +/- 0.44 km/L (2.12 +/- 1.03 mi/gal). This same truck would generate approximately 42 metric tons of CO2 equivalents/yr, which is comparable to the greenhouse gas emissions of a large sport utility vehicle driving six times the distance, in town, for a year. In terms of the impacts such emissions have, projections for the monetary cost of emissions are available but highly variable. They suggest that the external monetary costs of emissions range between 6 and 39% of the annual fuel costs for the studied MSW collection truck. The results of this study indicate a need for further research into valuation of the hidden, external costs of emissions, borne by local and global socioecological communities. The possible implications of this result include poorly advised fleet procurement decisions and underestimation of MSW collection fleet emissions.     

Benthic macrofaunal assemblages of the San Francisco Estuary and Delta, USA

The spatial and temporal distribution of macrobenthic assemblages in the San Francisco Estuary and Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis of 501 samples collected between 1994 and 2008. Five benthic assemblages were identified that were distributed primarily along the salinity gradient: (1) a polyhaline assemblage that inhabits the Central Bay, (2) a mesohaline assemblage that inhabits South Bay and San Pablo Bay, (3) a low-diversity oligohaline assemblage primarily in Suisun Bay, (4) a low-diversity sand assemblage that occurs at various locations throughout the Estuary, and (5) a tidal freshwater assemblage in the Delta. Most sites were classified within the same assemblage in different seasons and years, but a few sites switched assemblage designations in response to seasonal changes in salinity from freshwater inflows.     

Modeling Runoff Response to Land Cover and Rainfall Spatial Variability in Semi-Arid Watersheds

Hydrologic response is an integrated indicator of watershed condition, and significant changes in land cover may affect the overall health and function of a watershed. This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the effects of land cover change and rainfall spatial variability on watershed response. Two hydrologic models were applied on a small semi-arid watershed; one model is event-based with a one-minute time step (KINEROS), and the second is a continuous model with a daily time step (SWAT). The inputs to the models were derived from Geographic Information System (GIS) theme layers of USGS digital elevation models, the State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO) and the Landsat-based North American Landscape Characterization classification (NALC) in conjunction with available literature and look up tables. Rainfall data from a network of 10 raingauges and historical stream flow data were used to calibrate runoff depth using the continuous hydrologic model from 1966 to 1974. No calibration was carried out for the event-based model, in which six storms from the same period were used in the calculation of runoff depth and peak runoff. The assumption on which much of this study is based is that land cover change and rainfall spatial variability affect the rainfall-runoff relationships on the watershed. To validate this assumption, simulations were carried out wherein the entire watershed was transformed from the 1972 NALC land cover, which consisted of a mixture of desertscrub and grassland, to a single uniform land cover type such as riparian, forest, oak woodland, mesquite woodland, desertscrub, grassland, urban, agriculture, and barren. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using widely available data sets for parameterizing hydrologic simulation models. The simulation results show that both models were able to characterize the runoff response of the watershed due to changes of land cover.     

A Landscape Ecology Assessment of the Tensas River Basin

A group of landscape ecological indicators were applied to biophysical data masked to the Tensas River Basin. The indicators were used to identify and prioritize sources of nutrients in a Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System sub-basin. Remotely sensed data were used for change detection assessment. With these methods, we were able to look at land use practices over the past twenty years in the Tensas River Basin of Louisiana. A simple land use classification was applied to multispectral scanner (MSS) data from 1972 and 1991. The landscape analysis methods described in this paper will show how to use these methods to assess the impact of human land use practices that are being implemented to improve environmental quality. Landscape assessment methods can be used as a simple, timely, cost effective approach for monitoring, targeting, and modeling ecosystem health in watersheds. Although this study was conducted in the southeast, the methods described in this paper may be applicable to western landscapes.     

Lead forms in urban turfgrass and forest soils as related to organic matter content and pH

Identification of reference streams and human disturbance gradients are crucial steps in assessing the effects of human disturbances on stream health. We describe a process for identifying reference stream reaches and assessing disturbance gradients using readily available, geo-referenced stream and human disturbance databases. We demonstrate the utility of this process by applying it to wadeable streams in Michigan, USA, and use it to identify which human disturbances have the greatest impact on streams. Approximately 38% of cold-water and 16% of warm-water streams in Michigan were identified as being in least-disturbed condition. Conversely, approximately 3% of cold-water and 4% of warm-water streams were moderately to severely disturbed by landscape human disturbances. Anthropogenic disturbances that had the greatest impact on moderately to severely disturbed streams were nutrient loading and percent urban land use within network watersheds. Our process for assessing stream health represents a significant advantage over other routinely used methods. It uses inter-confluence stream reaches as an assessment unit, permits the evaluation of stream health across large regions, and yields an overall disturbance index that is a weighted sum of multiple disturbance factors. The robustness of our approach is linked to the scale of disturbances that affect a stream; it will be less robust for identifying less degraded or reference streams with localized human disturbances. With improved availability of high-resolution disturbance datasets, this approach will provide a more complete picture of reference stream reaches and factors contributing to degradation of stream health.     

Determination of the emissions from an aircraft auxiliary power unit (APU) during the Alternative Aviation Fuel Experiment (AAFEX)

The emissions from a Garrett-AiResearch (now Honeywell) Model GTCP85-98CK auxiliary power unit (APU) were determined as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Alternative Aviation Fuel Experiment (AAFEX) using both JP-8 and a coal-derived Fischer Tropsch fuel (FT-2). Measurements were conducted by multiple research organizations for sulfur dioxide (SO2, total hydrocarbons (THC), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), speciated gas-phase emissions, particulate matter (PM) mass and number, black carbon, and speciated PM. In addition, particle size distribution (PSD), number-based geometric mean particle diameter (GMD), and smoke number were also determined from the data collected. The results of the research showed PM mass emission indices (EIs) in the range of 20 to 700 mg/kg fuel and PM number EIs ranging from 0.5 x 10(15) to 5 x 10(15) particles/kg fuel depending on engine load and fuel type. In addition, significant reductions in both the SO2 and PM EIs were observed for the use of the FT fuel. These reductions were on the order of approximately 90% for SO2 and particle mass EIs and approximately 60% for the particle number EI, with similar decreases observed for black carbon. Also, the size of the particles generated by JP-8 combustion are noticeably larger than those emitted by the APU burning the FT fuel with the geometric mean diameters ranging from 20 to 50 nm depending on engine load and fuel type. Finally, both particle-bound sulfate and organics were reduced during FT-2 combustion. The PM sulfate was reduced by nearly 100% due to lack of sulfur in the fuel, with the PM organics reduced by a factor of approximately 5 as compared with JP-8.     

Emissions Control and Ambient Air Quality at a Secondary Steel Production Facility

Steel production from electric arc furnaces has been continuously rising over the past few years. The trend is expected to continue due to both the anticipated increase in demand for steel, and to the replacement of obsolete open hearth furnaces. In 1972 steel produced in electric arc furnaces, which makes up 25 to 30% of the annual United States steel production, was produced primarily from recycled scrap steel in approximately 300 electric arc furnaces operated by 99 companies at 121 locations.¹ Over half of these furnaces are smaller than 50 tons, and many are located in small bar mills producing a variety of merchant steel products.