Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.     

Threatened Species Conservation in New South Wales,Australia: A Review of the Value of the Eight-part Test

The Threatened Species Conservation (TSC) Act, introduced in 1995, represents a significant attempt to conserve and restore biodiversity within the state of New South Wales, Australia. This Act aims to integrate land use planning and environmental impact assessment legislation by placing increased responsibility on applicants, proponents, consent and determining authorities, and the New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, in the fields of environmental planning, development control and biodiversity conservation. The TSC Act introduced a set of eight factors which have to be considered by decision makers in determining whether a development is likely to have a significant effect upon threatened species, populations, ecological communities or their habitats (the threatened biota) as listed in the Act. These eight factors are commonly referred to as the 'eight-part test'. Fifty environmental impact statements (EISs) containing eight-part tests for development proposals were obtained. The adequacy of scoping and survey exercises, the number of species identified and afforded the eight-part test, and the actual responses to each of the eight factors contained within the test, using a series of criteria, were ascertained. Sixty per cent provided an adequate scoping exercise; 6% of the surveys for flora species, and none for fauna species carried out, were adequate in terms of identifying all threatened species on the development site. Seven hundred and thirty-seven species listed in the Act were identified, 36% of which were omitted from the eight-part test procedure. The eight sections of the eight-part test were completed to a varying degree of adequacy, with none of the EISs completing all eight sections satisfactorily. Both section 4 (regarding the impacts of a development in terms of habitat isolation) and section 8 (regarding the distribution of species potentially affected by a development) were inadequately completed in all 50 EISs.     

Mitochondrial control region sequence analyses indicate dispersal from the US East Coast as the source of the invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish Pterois volitans in the Bahamas

Lionfish are popular aquarium fish from the Indo-Pacific that have invaded the western Atlantic. Two species, Pterois volitans and P. miles, were well established along the United States east coast before the first lionfish were reported from the Bahamas in 2004, where they quickly dispersed throughout the archipelago by 2007. The source of the Bahamian lionfish invasion has been in question because of the hypothesized low connectivity between Florida and Bahamas reef species as well as the temporal lag in their arrival in the Bahamas. Mitochondrial control region haplotypes (680 bp) were determined and analyzed for lionfish specimens from the Bahamas, North Carolina, and two sites within their native range (Indonesia and the Philippines). Exact tests, pairwise F _st and AMOVA analyses all showed no significant differentiation between the Bahamas and North Carolina specimens. The similarity between the Bahamas and North Carolina lionfish was also reflected in a minimum spanning network and neighbor-joining distance tree generated from the data. Sequence analyses also revealed the presence of only Pterois volitans, as no P. miles were detected in the Bahamian sample. These results indicate that the source of the Bahamian lionfish is egg and larval dispersal from the United States east coast population, and support previous models of reef fish dispersal that suggest a low level of connectivity between the Bahamas and east coast of Florida.     

Radionuclides and metals in freshwater mussels of the upper South Alligator River, Australia

During an inspection of the old Rockhole Mine area in Kakadu National Park in 1999, it was found that a small amount of tailings from the former South Alligator uranium (U) mill had been uncovered by wet season rain and road works. Samples of sediment, water and freshwater mussels, Velesunio angasi, were collected from the South Alligator River, near and at the confluence of Rockhole Mine Creek, and adjacent to the exposed tailings. The 228Ra/226Ra activity ratios in sediments and mussel tissue indicate a small influence from the tailings and from Rockhole Mine adit water on 226Ra concentrations. The uptake of 226Ra in mussels does not correlate with other alkaline-earth metals. Mussel U concentrations are higher immediately downstream of Rockhole Mine Creek, but there is no noticeable increase in the immediate vicinity of the tailings area. A hypothetical ingestion of 2 kg of mussels from the sites was used to estimate the committed effective dose for a 10-year-old child resulting in a figure of 0.23 mSv per annum, of this total dose, 69% is attributed to 210Po. Only 0.03 mSv per annum can be directly linked to impacts of the tailings.     

Acid Rain Emission Allowances and Future Capacity Growth in the Electric Utility Industry

While the new source emission offset provision contained in recent acid rain proposals would result in increasing utility costs over time, the demand for emission offsets from new powerplant units should be satisfied even under conditions of high future growth in electrical generating capacity. This is because the amount of emissions from new generating units will be small relative to the quantity of offsets that could be made available in the emission “allowance” market.

Under the President’s July 1989 proposal, most utilities would be able to reduce their emissions well below their allowance levels via fuel switching, the installation of control technology, or the use of other emission reduction techniques, in order to create more “headroom” for the construction of new generating units. Retirements and decreasing utilization of existing power plants over time would liberate other emission allowances for use by new units. Industrial sources could “opt in” to the acid rain program and provide allowances for new generating units as well. A number of provisions in the recently passed Senate and House bills would make still further sources of allowances available to offset emissions from new generating capacity.

Hoarding of allowances by utilities is unlikely to be a problem since allowances would be distributed to at least 88 utilities in 34 states, and many of these utilities would have the ability to cost-effectively free up more allowances through “overcontrol” than they would need to cover their own future growth. Even a relatively small number of utilities in a limited number of states would have the ability to supply all of the allowances needed to cover new capacity growth from those entities that could not otherwise provide their own offsets. At projected prices of up to $800/ton, the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would be considerable. Moreover, if hoarding did begin to occur, the price of allowances would respond by rising to higher levels and the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would become even more compelling, as greater opportunities would develop for reducing costs (and electricity rates).     

summary of the California aerosol characterization experiment

This report gives a brief summary of the experimental plan and the early results of field observations from the California Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACHEX). The objectives of the program center on questions of the sources and evolution of aerosols in urban air, as they are superimposed on a natural background, particularly as they relate to visibilitydegradation. The project initially nvolved the use of an elaborately instrumented mobile laboratory combined with a fixed station in San Jose, in Pasadena, and in Riverside, and later incorporated several satellite monitoring stations in the Los Angeles Basin. Intensive field observationswere taken from July 1972 to November 1972 in several urban and nonurban locations between the San Francisco Bay area and the South Coast Basin, covering the Los Angeles area. In a second phase of the ACHEX, aerosols accompanying photochemical smog were studied intensively in the Los Angeles Basin during the period between July and October of 1973. The observations cover a wide variety of parameters including physical and chemical properties of aerosols, pollutant gas concentrations, and meteorological variables. The initial results show the great importance of sulfate, nitrate, noncarbonate carbon, and liquid water to the mass concentration of airborne particles and their relation to reduction in visibility. The anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric aerosols is consistently found to be allocated primarily to the submicron or fine particle size range.     

A land use regression model for predicting ambient concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

This paper reports on the development of a land use regression (LUR) model for predicting the intraurban variation of traffic-related air pollution in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, an industrial city at the western end of Lake Ontario. Although land use regression has been increasingly used to characterize exposure gradients within cities, research to date has yet to test whether this method can produce reliable estimates in an industrialized location. Ambient concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were measured for a 2-week period in October 2002 at > 100 locations across the city and subsequently at 30 of these locations in May 2004 to assess seasonal effects. Predictor variables were derived for land use types, transportation, demography, and physical geography using geographic information systems. The LUR model explained 76% of the variation in NO2. Traffic density, proximity to a highway, and industrial land use were all positively correlated with NO2 concentrations, whereas open land use and distance from the lake were negatively correlated with NO2. Locations downwind of a major highway resulted in higher NO2 levels. Cross-validation of the results confirmed model stability over different seasons. Our findings demonstrate that land use regression can effectively predict NO2 variation at the intraurban scale in an industrial setting. Models predicting exposure within smaller areas may lead to improved detection of health effects in epidemiologic studies.