Reconnecting to the Biosphere

Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere--a global sustainability agenda for humanity.     

Tipping Toward Sustainability: Emerging Pathways of Transformation

This article explores the links between agency, institutions, and innovation in navigating shifts and large-scale transformations toward global sustainability. Our central question is whether social and technical innovations can reverse the trends that are challenging critical thresholds and creating tipping points in the earth system, and if not, what conditions are necessary to escape the current lock-in. Large-scale transformations in information technology, nano- and biotechnology, and new energy systems have the potential to significantly improve our lives; but if, in framing them, our globalized society fails to consider the capacity of the biosphere, there is a risk that unsustainable development pathways may be reinforced. Current institutional arrangements, including the lack of incentives for the private sector to innovate for sustainability, and the lags inherent in the path dependent nature of innovation, contribute to lock-in, as does our incapacity to easily grasp the interactions implicit in complex problems, referred to here as the ingenuity gap. Nonetheless, promising social and technical innovations with potential to change unsustainable trajectories need to be nurtured and connected to broad institutional resources and responses. In parallel, institutional entrepreneurs can work to reduce the resilience of dominant institutional systems and position viable shadow alternatives and niche regimes.     

Assessment of basin-scale hydrologic impacts of CO2 sequestration,Illinois basin

Idealized, basin-scale sharp-interface models of CO₂ injection were constructed for the Illinois basin. Porosity and permeability were decreased with depth within the Mount Simon Formation. Eau Claire confining unit porosity and permeability were kept fixed. We used 726 injection wells located near 42 power plants to deliver 80 million metric tons of CO₂/year. After 100 years of continuous injection, deviatoric fluid pressures varied between 5.6 and 18 MPa across central and southern part of the Illinois basin. Maximum deviatoric pressure reached about 50% of lithostatic levels to the south. The pressure disturbance (>0.03 MPa) propagated 10–25 km away from the injection wells resulting in significant well–well pressure interference. These findings are consistent with single-phase analytical solutions of injection. The radial footprint of the CO₂ plume at each well was only 0.5–2 km after 100 years of injection. Net lateral brine displacement was insignificant due to increasing radial distance from injection well and leakage across the Eau Claire confining unit. On geologic time scales CO₂ would migrate northward at a rate of about 6 m/1000 years. Because of paleo-seismic events in this region (M5.5–M7.5), care should be taken to avoid high pore pressures in the southern Illinois basin.     

Methods of characterizing the distribution of exhaust emissions from light-duty, gasoline-powered motor vehicles in the U.S. fleet

Mobile sources significantly contribute to ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter (PM). Source apportionment studies for PM10 (PM < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter) and PM2.5 (PM < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) indicate that mobile sources can be responsible for over half of the ambient PM measured in an urban area. Recent source apportionment studies attempted to differentiate between contributions from gasoline and diesel motor vehicle combustion. Several source apportionment studies conducted in the United States suggested that gasoline combustion from mobile sources contributed more to ambient PM than diesel combustion. However, existing emission inventories for the United States indicated that diesels contribute more than gasoline vehicles to ambient PM concentrations. A comprehensive testing program was initiated in the Kansas City metropolitan area to measure PM emissions in the light-duty, gasoline-powered, on-road mobile source fleet to provide data for PM inventory and emissions modeling. The vehicle recruitment design produced a sample that could represent the regional fleet, and by extension, the national fleet. All vehicles were recruited from a stratified sample on the basis of vehicle class (car, truck) and model-year group. The pool of available vehicles was drawn primarily from a sample of vehicle owners designed to represent the selected demographic and geographic characteristics of the Kansas City population. Emissions testing utilized a portable, light-duty chassis dynamometer with vehicles tested using the LA-92 driving cycle, on-board emissions measurement systems, and remote sensing devices. Particulate mass emissions were the focus of the study, with continuous and integrated samples collected. In addition, sample analyses included criteria gases (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitric oxide/nitrogen dioxide, hydrocarbons), air toxics (speciated volatile organic compounds), and PM constituents (elemental/organic carbon, metals, semi-volatile organic compounds). Results indicated that PM emissions from the in-use fleet varied by up to 3 orders of magnitude, with emissions generally increasing for older model-year vehicles. The study also identified a strong influence of ambient temperature on vehicle PM mass emissions, with rates increasing with decreasing temperatures.     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

Real-world vehicle emissions: a summary of the Sixteenth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

The Coordinating Research Council held its 16th workshop in March 2006, with 83 presentations describing the most recent mobile source-related emissions research. In this paper, we summarize the presentations from researchers who are engaged in improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to air quality. Participants in the workshop discussed evaluation of in-use emissions control programs, effects of fuels on emissions, emission models and emission inventories, results from gas- and particle-phase emissions studies from spark-ignition and diesel-powered vehicles, and efforts to improve our capabilities in performing on-board emissions measurements, as well as topics for future research.     

Impact of underestimating the effects of cold temperature on motor vehicle start emissions of air toxics in the United States

Analyses of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certification data, California Air Resources Board surveillance testing data, and EPA research testing data indicated that EPA's MOBILE6.2 emission factor model substantially underestimates emissions of gaseous air toxics occurring during vehicle starts at cold temperatures for light-duty vehicles and trucks meeting EPA Tier 1 and later standards. An unofficial version of the MOBILE6.2 model was created to account for these underestimates. When this unofficial version of the model was used to project emissions into the future, emissions increased by almost 100% by calendar year 2030, and estimated modeled ambient air toxics concentrations increased by 6-84%, depending on the pollutant. To address these elevated emissions, EPA recently finalized standards requiring reductions of emissions when engines start at cold temperatures.     

Microbial source tracking: a forensic technique for microbial source identification?

As the requirements of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the US Clean Water Act (USCWA) for the maintenance of microbiological water quality in 'protected areas' highlight, there is a growing recognition that integrated management of point and diffuse sources of microbial pollution is essential. New information on catchment microbial dynamics and, in particular, the sources of faecal indicator bacteria found in bathing and shellfish harvesting waters is a pre-requisite for the design of any 'programme of measures' at the drainage basin scale to secure and maintain compliance with existing and new health-based microbiological standards. This paper reports on a catchment-scale microbial source tracking (MST) study in the Leven Estuary drainage basin, northwest England, an area for which quantitative faecal indicator source apportionment empirical data and land use information were also collected. Since previous MST studies have been based on laboratory trials using 'manufactured' samples or analyses of spot environmental samples without the contextual microbial flux data (under high and low flow conditions) and source information, such background data are needed to evaluate the utility of MST in USCWA total maximum daily load (TMDL) assessments or WFD 'Programmes of Measures'. Thus, the operational utility of MST remains in some doubt. The results of this investigation, using genotyping of Bacteroidetes using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and male-specific ribonucleic acid coliphage (F + RNA coliphage) using hybridisation, suggest some discrimination is possible between livestock- and human-derived faecal indicator concentrations but, in inter-grade areas, the degree to which the tracer picture reflected the land use pattern and probable faecal indicator loading were less distinct. Interestingly, the MST data was more reliable on high flow samples when much of the faecal indicator flux from catchment systems occurs. Whilst a useful supplementary tool, the MST information did not provide quantitative source apportionment for the study catchment. Thus, it could not replace detailed empirical measurement of microbial flux at key catchment outlets to underpin faecal indicator source apportionment. Therefore, the MST techniques reported herein currently may not meet the standards required to be a useful forensic tool, although continued development of the methods and further catchment scale studies could increase confidence in such methods for future application.     

Evaluation of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for remote wetland monitoring: design and initial results

Here, we describe and evaluate two low-power wireless sensor networks (WSNs) designed to remotely monitor wetland hydrochemical dynamics over time scales ranging from minutes to decades. Each WSN (one student-built and one commercial) has multiple nodes to monitor water level, precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature, and major solutes at user-defined time intervals. Both WSNs can be configured to report data in near real time via the internet. Based on deployments in two isolated wetlands, we report highly resolved water budgets, transient reversals of flow path, rates of transpiration from peatlands and the dynamics of chromophoric-dissolved organic matter and bulk ionic solutes (specific conductivity)—all on daily or subdaily time scales. Initial results indicate that direct precipitation and evapotranspiration dominate the hydrologic budget of both study wetlands, despite their relatively flat geomorphology and proximity to elevated uplands. Rates of transpiration from peatland sites were typically greater than evaporation from open waters but were more challenging to integrate spatially. Due to the high specific yield of peat, the hydrologic gradient between peatland and open water varied with precipitation events and intervening periods of dry out. The resultant flow path reversals implied that the flux of solutes across the riparian boundary varied over daily time scales. We conclude that WSNs can be deployed in remote wetland-dominated ecosystems at relatively low cost to assess the hydrochemical impacts of weather, climate, and other perturbations.     

Impact of growth conditions on transport behavior of E. coli

The aim of this investigation is to determine the effect that growth solution has on the cell surface properties and transport behavior of eleven Escherichia coli isolates through saturated porous media. The two growth solutions used were a standard laboratory growth medium (LB) and a dairy manure extract solution. In general, cells grown in manure extract were more hydrophobic, had a more negative zeta potential, had lower amounts of surface macromolecules, and had lower attachment efficiencies than isolates grown in LB. An inverse relationship between the natural log of zeta potential and the attachment efficiency of the isolates for the cells grown in LB media was the only statistically significant correlation observed between transport behavior and cell characteristics of the isolates. This study shows the need to consider growth conditions when studying bacteria to better mimic the environmental stresses that bacteria undergo in the natural environment. This approach could lead to a better understanding of the behavior of manure-derived bacteria in aquatic and terrestrial environments.